• Title/Summary/Keyword: logit모형

Search Result 437, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Solution Methods for OD Trip Estimation in Stochastic Assignment (확률적 통행배정하에서 기종점 통행량추정 모형의 개발)

  • Im, Yong-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.24 no.4 s.90
    • /
    • pp.149-159
    • /
    • 2006
  • Traditional trip tables are estimated through large-scale surveys such as household survey, roadside interviews, and license Plate matching. These methods are, however, expensive and time consuming. This paper presents two origin-destination (OD) trip matrix estimation methods from link traffic counts in stochastic assignment, which contains perceived errors of drivers for alternatives. The methods are formulated based on the relation between link flows and OD demands in logit formula. The first method can be expressed to minimize the difference between observed link flows and estimated flows, derived from traffic assignment and be solved by gradient method. The second method can be formulated based on dynamic process, which nay describe the daily movement patterns of drivers and be solved by a recursive equation. A numerical example is used for assessing the methods, and shows the performances and properties of the models.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.83-98
    • /
    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

  • PDF

The Effects of Road Geometry on the Injury Severity of Expressway Traffic Accident Depending on Weather Conditions (도로기하구조가 기상상태에 따라 고속도로 교통사고 심각도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Su Jin;Kho, Seung-Young;Park, Ho-Chul
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.12-28
    • /
    • 2019
  • Road geometry is one of the many factors that cause crashes, but the effect on traffic accident depends on weather conditions even under the same road geometry. This study identifies the variables affecting the crash severity by matching the highway accident data and weather data for 14 years from 2001 to 2014. A hierarchical ordered Logit model is used to reflect the effects of road geometry and weather condition interactions on crash severity, as well as the correlation between individual crashes in a region. Among the hierarchical models, we apply a random intercept model including interaction variables between road geometry and weather condition and a random coefficient model including regional weather characteristics as upper-level variables. As a result, it is confirmed that the effects of toll, ramp, downhill slope of 3% or more, and concrete barrier on the crash severity vary depending on weather conditions. It also shows that the combined effects of road geometry and weather conditions may not be linear depending on rainfall or snowfall levels. Finally, we suggest safety improvement measures based on the results of this study, which are expected to reduce the severity of traffic accidents in the future.

Examining Access Mode Choice Behavior of Local Metropolitan High-Speed Rail Station - A Case Study of Dong-Daegu Station - (고속철도 지방대도시 정차역의 연계교통수단 선택모형 구축에 관한 연구 - 동대구역을 사례로 -)

  • Kim, Sang Hwang;Kim, Kap Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.4D
    • /
    • pp.565-571
    • /
    • 2006
  • This study aimed to analyze access mode choice behavior for KTX Passengers. To fulfill the aims of this study, Dong-Daegu Station was selected as a station for a case study. This study takes place in two stages. These are (i) descriptive statistical analysis of transportation status before and after introduction of the KTX, (ii) empirical model estimation for analyzing access mode choice behavior. This study makes use of the data from travel survey from Daegu metropolitan area. The main part of the survey was carried out in the KTX Dong-Daegu station. The data was collected from a sample of 1,800 individuals. The survey data includes the information on travel from Dong-Daegu station to Seoul. From descriptive statistical analysis of transportation status before and after introduction of the KTX, it is found that revealed demand of the KTX is lower than that expected. Moreover, it is found that the low demand of the KTX stems from high cost for the KTX itself and inconvenience( including travel time and cost) of access mode. In order to analyze mode choice behavior for accessing Dong-Daegu station, multinomial logit model structure is used. For the model specification, a variety of behavioral assumptions about the factors which affect the access mode choice, were considered. From the empirical model estimation, it si found that access travel time and access travel cost are significant in choosing access mode. Given the empirical evidence, we see that improvement of access transportation system for Dong-Daegu station is very important for enhancing the use of KTX.

Support Vector Bankruptcy Prediction Model with Optimal Choice of RBF Kernel Parameter Values using Grid Search (Support Vector Machine을 이용한 부도예측모형의 개발 -격자탐색을 이용한 커널 함수의 최적 모수 값 선정과 기존 부도예측모형과의 성과 비교-)

  • Min Jae H.;Lee Young-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-74
    • /
    • 2005
  • Bankruptcy prediction has drawn a lot of research interests in previous literature, and recent studies have shown that machine learning techniques achieved better performance than traditional statistical ones. This paper employs a relatively new machine learning technique, support vector machines (SVMs). to bankruptcy prediction problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. To serve this purpose, we use grid search technique using 5-fold cross-validation to find out the optimal values of the parameters of kernel function of SVM. In addition, to evaluate the prediction accuracy of SVM. we compare its performance with multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic regression analysis (Logit), and three-layer fully connected back-propagation neural networks (BPNs). The experiment results show that SVM outperforms the other methods.

The Study on Traffic Accident of Commercial Vehicle using Odered Logit Model (순서형 로짓모형을 이용한 화물차 운전자 사고 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Byoung-Jo;Ko, Eun-Hyeck;Yang, Sung-Ryong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
    • /
    • 2016.11a
    • /
    • pp.265-266
    • /
    • 2016
  • 본 연구에서는 수집된 자료에서 화물차 교통사고를 분류하고 계절과 기상상태, 도로유형, 법규위반, 사고유형 측면에서 각각의 변수들이 사고 심각도에 미치는 영향을 파악함으로써 유의하게 화물차 교통사고 심각도를 높이는 요인을 분석하고자 하였다. 화물차 사고는 가을의 경우 사고 심각도의 오즈비가 1.23배로 증가하고, 안개가 꼈을 경우 사고 심각도는 16.49배 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 법규위반, 도로형태, 사고유형 등 여러 요인에 의한 사고 위험도가 증가했지만 특히 도로 외 이탈로 인한 추락사고에서 사고 위험도가 크게 나타났으며 전도전복으로 인한 사고 위험도도 큰 것으로 나타났다.

  • PDF

A Study on the Development of an Estimation Model: The Psychological Cost of Traffic Accidents (교통사고의 심리적 비용 산정모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Jeong-Bok;Shon, Eui-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.211-221
    • /
    • 2008
  • This dissertation studied the psychological cost, which converted the mental pain suffered by the victim of a traffic accident and his/her family, friends and people around him/her into social costs. Three methodologies - Choice Experiments, Direct Question and Dichotomous Choice Question - were used to design questionnaires, and models were built for each questionnaire design method. When building models, a logit model was used, which is used most frequently in probabilistic choice model. And the tobitmodel was used to make direct questionnaires. When verifying these models, although there were some differences in each model, suitability of most models and credibility of each coefficient were meaningful around the credibility level of 95%. According to the analysis, domestic psychological cost produced through the assessment model of psychological cost was 15.63 million won per person or 5.1 trillion in total, assuming 37.1% of total traffic accident cost.

A Study on Selecting Model for Small and Medium Management Innovative Manufacturers (경영혁신형 중.소 제조기업 선정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • You, Yen-Yoo;Roh, Jae-Whak
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.55-75
    • /
    • 2010
  • The primary purposes of this study are to find a proper model for government's selections of Mainbiz and present what are the better weights of the current indexes. We prepared three sets of models:first one using original 10 variables; second one using 9principally composed variables; third one using 7 principally composed variables. Among 3 models, the last one had higher explanation power than the other two models. Therefore, if index weights are adjusted according to the third newly developed model, the credibility in evaluating and selecting Mainbiz will be improved. When transforming the index weights and running the analysis, 5 variables(organization process, marketing management, management process, production-facility states, the level of forecasting) have more direct influences than other 4 variables(innovation strategies, knowledge management, achieving level, operational level) on selecting Main-biz.

Analysis on the Factors Affecting Housing Tenure of Single-Person Households of Young Generation Employing the Multinomial Logit Model (다항 로짓모형을 이용한 청년 1인가구의 주거 점유형태 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Mu-Seon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.6
    • /
    • pp.469-481
    • /
    • 2016
  • The number of single households in Korea has been sharply increasing due to dissolution of the family community and changes in housing culture. Therefore, there is a need to develop a plan for diagnosis of changes in the housing market in response to a rapid increase of single household to suggest a proper direction of housing policy. This study was conducted to clarify the factors influencing housing occupancy type targeting a single adult household. To accomplish this, a cross-sectional analysis was conducted using the multi-nominal logit model and the Korea Welfare Panel's 9th survey materials. Occupants of ingle households in their 20s and 30s were found to be much poorer than those in their 40s, or older. Additionally, single household in their 20s and 30s, the characteristic of a household having an influence on the choice of housing occupancy type showed a result in a different direction even from the same household characteristic of those in their 40s, or older. Finally, the characteristics of occupants of single households in their 20s and 30s showed room for improvement through public support. Overall, the results of this study implied the need to inquire into the government's periodic support in more diverse ways.

Utility Maximization, The Shapes of the Indifference Curve on the Characteristic Space and its Estimation: A Theoretical Approach (개인여객 효용의 극대화 및 운송특성공간상의 무차별곡선의 형태와 그 추정)

  • Kim, Jong-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.157-168
    • /
    • 2009
  • The random utility theory and the multinomial logit model (including a more recent variant--the mixed multinomial logit) derived from it have constituted a back bone for theoretical and empirical analyses of various travel demand features including mode choice. In their empirical applications, however, it is customary to specify random utilities which are linear in modal attributes such as time and cost, and in socio-economic variables. The linearity helps easy derivation of important information such as value of travel time savings by calculating marginal rate of substitution between time and cost. In this paper the author focuses on the very linearity of the random utilities. Taking into account the fact that the mode chooser is also labour supplier, commodity consumer as well as leisure-seeker, the author sets up a maximization model of the traveller, which encompasses various economic activities of the traveller. The author derive from the model the indifference curve defined on the space of modal attributes, time and cost and investigate under what conditions the random utility of the traveller becomes linear. It turns out that there exist the conditions under which the random utility is really linear in modal attributes, but the property does not hold when the traveller has a corner solution on the space of modal attributes, or when the primary utility function of the traveller is directly affected by labour provided and/or the travel time itself. As a corollary of the analysis, a random utility is suggested, approximated up to the second order of the variables involved for empirical studies of the field.