• Title/Summary/Keyword: log-logistic model

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Exploring the Predictors of Academic Probation in College : Focusing on Variables of Student Engagement (대학생의 학사경고 예측요인 탐색: 학교참여도 변인을 중심으로)

  • Seo, Eun Hee;Kim, Eun Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.469-476
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the predictors of academic probation in college. Especially, this study focused on student engagement variables among the predictors of academic probation in college. Student engagement variables include hours of absence from class and numbers of log to LMS(Learning Management System) and in extracurricular program system during four weeks after the opening of a course and the numbers of faculty counseling. GPA(grade Point Average) is a dependent variable and GPA of prior semester is a control variable in this study. 17,261 student data were collected for the study. Linear regression model and logistic regression model analyses were conducted in the study. The finding showed that the hours of absence from class and numbers of log in extracurricular program system during four weeks after the opening of a course predicted academic achievement of college students. The result also indicated that hours of absence from class and numbers of log-ins to LMS(Learning Management System) and in extracurricular program system during four weeks after the opening of a course were the predictors of academic probation in college. This study will contribute to investigate indicators of students with low academic performance and to provide proper support for underachievers.

Underlying Values of Real-time Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign Using Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) (조건부가치추정법을 이용한 VMS교통정보의 기본가치 추정연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-A;Kim, Jun-Gi;O, Seong-Ho;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2011
  • In the benefits of ITS, there are intangible gains from real-time traffic information as well as classical gains such as travel time saving. These intangible gains are difficult to be estimated by existing transportation investment appraisal commonly used in SOC investment. The major reason is not because of the absence of methodology but because of the absence of generalized values of particular benefits from real time traffic information. This research explores the value of real-time traffic information on VMS that is the most representative of ITS services, by using CVM with Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Question. Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) functions of drivers are built with survival functions using various types of probability distribution functions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, and Weibull functions. The results reveal that Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate distribution model to estimate WTP, and the estimated coefficients are stable through LR (Likelihood Ratio) test. For the further study, it is recommended to perform statistical tests of temporal and spatial transferability that is not examined in this research due to the lack of data.

Efficient Strategy to Identify Gene-Gene Interactions and Its Application to Type 2 Diabetes

  • Li, Donghe;Wo, Sungho
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.160-165
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    • 2016
  • Over the past decade, the detection of gene-gene interactions has become more and more popular in the field of genome-wide association studies (GWASs). The goal of the GWAS is to identify genetic susceptibility to complex diseases by assaying and analyzing hundreds of thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms. However, such tests are computationally demanding and methodologically challenging. Recently, a simple but powerful method, named "BOolean Operation-based Screening and Testing" (BOOST), was proposed for genome-wide gene-gene interaction analyses. BOOST was designed with a Boolean representation of genotype data and is approximately equivalent to the log-linear model. It is extremely fast, and genome-wide gene-gene interaction analyses can be completed within a few hours. However, BOOST can not adjust for covariate effects, and its type-1 error control is not correct. Thus, we considered two-step approaches for gene-gene interaction analyses. First, we selected gene-gene interactions with BOOST and applied logistic regression with covariate adjustments to select gene-gene interactions. We applied the two-step approach to type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the Korea Association Resource (KARE) cohort and identified some promising pairs of single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with T2D.

Tree Size Distribution Modelling: Moving from Complexity to Finite Mixture

  • Ogana, Friday Nwabueze;Chukwu, Onyekachi;Ajayi, Samuel
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2020
  • Tree size distribution modelling is an integral part of forest management. Most distribution yield systems rely on some flexible probability models. In this study, a simple finite mixture of two components two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared with complex four-parameter distributions in terms of their fitness to predict tree size distribution of teak (Tectona grandis Linn f) plantations. Also, a system of equation was developed using Seemingly Unrelated Regression wherein the size distributions of the stand were predicted. Generalized beta, Johnson's SB, Logit-Logistic and generalized Weibull distributions were the four-parameter distributions considered. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and negative log-likelihood value were used to assess the distributions. The results show that the simple finite mixture outperformed the four-parameter distributions especially in stands that are bimodal and heavily skewed. Twelve models were developed in the system of equation-one for predicting mean diameter, seven for predicting percentiles and four for predicting the parameters of the finite mixture distribution. Predictions from the system of equation are reasonable and compare well with observed distributions of the stand. This simplified mixture would allow for wider application in distribution modelling and can also be integrated as component model in stand density management diagram.

Use of beta-P distribution for modeling hydrologic events

  • Murshed, Md. Sharwar;Seo, Yun Am;Park, Jeong-Soo;Lee, Youngsaeng
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2018
  • Parametric method of flood frequency analysis involves fitting of a probability distribution to observed flood data. When record length at a given site is relatively shorter and hard to apply the asymptotic theory, an alternative distribution to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is often used. In this study, we consider the beta-P distribution (BPD) as an alternative to the GEV and other well-known distributions for modeling extreme events of small or moderate samples as well as highly skewed or heavy tailed data. The L-moments ratio diagram shows that special cases of the BPD include the generalized logistic, three-parameter log-normal, and GEV distributions. To estimate the parameters in the distribution, the method of moments, L-moments, and maximum likelihood estimation methods are considered. A Monte-Carlo study is then conducted to compare these three estimation methods. Our result suggests that the L-moments estimator works better than the other estimators for this model of small or moderate samples. Two applications to the annual maximum stream flow of Colorado and the rainfall data from cloud seeding experiments in Southern Florida are reported to show the usefulness of the BPD for modeling hydrologic events. In these examples, BPD turns out to work better than $beta-{\kappa}$, Gumbel, and GEV distributions.

NR3C1 Polymorphisms for Genetic Susceptibility to Schizophrenia

  • Park, Joo Seok;Lee, Sang Min;Kim, Jong Woo;Kang, Won Sub
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.88-93
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    • 2019
  • Objectives Psychological stress has been known to increase the risk of schizophrenia. Because stress responses are mainly mediated by cortisol, the action of the glucocorticoid receptors (Nuclear Receptor Subfamily 3 Group C Member 1, NR3C1) is possibly related to the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. In this study, we investigated the associations between polymorphisms of NR3C1 and schizophrenia. Methods Four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs17100236, rs2963155, rs9324924, and rs7701443) of NR3C1 were genotyped in 208 patients with schizophrenia and 339 healthy individuals. A chi-square test was performed to test differences in allele distributions among groups. A multiple logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and multiple inheritance models to analyze the associations between schizophrenia and SNPs (the dominant, recessive and additive models). Results The minor allele frequencies of two SNPs were significantly higher in the schizophrenia group than in those of the control group (rs2963155 G > A : 0.25 vs. 0.18, p = 0.0066 ; rs7701443 A > G : 0.40 vs. 0.33, p = 0.012). The genotype frequencies of two SNPs were found to be significantly different between patients with schizophrenia and controls in the dominant model (rs2963155 : AG/GG vs. AA, OR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.16-2.38, p = 0.0055, rs7701443 : AG/AA vs. GG, OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.11-2.34, p = 0.01) and the log-additive model (rs2963155 : AG vs. GG vs. AA, OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.13-2.10, p = 0.0067). Conclusions This study showed significant associations between NR3C1 polymorphisms and schizophrenia. It suggests that NR3C1 may play a role in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia.

Association Study in Endothelin 1 (EDN1) Gene Polymorphism and Excess or Deficiency Syndrome in Korean Asthmatic Patients (한국인 기관지 천식 허증(虛證), 실증(實證) 환자와 EDN1 유전자 다형성과의 상관성 연구)

  • Yoem, Yu-rim;Kim, Kwan-il;Baek, Hyun-jung;Kim, Mi-a;Lee, Beom-joon;Kim, Jin-ju;Kim, Su-kang;Chung, Joo-ho;Jung, Hee-jae;Jung, Sung-ki
    • The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: In the present study, a genetic analysis was conducted to investigate the association of the expression of SNPs of EDN1 gene polymorphism with the clinical phenotype in bronchial asthma patients with either excess or deficiency syndrome.Methods: Ninety-four healthy control subjects and 52 asthma patients were included in this study. The asthma patients were divided into two groups: those with deficiency syndrome and those with excess syndrome. We searched the exonic and promoter areas of the EDN1 gene in the NCBI website SNPs with <0.01 minor allele frequency (MAF) and <0.01 heterozygosity. Pro programs were performed to obtain the odds ratio, 95% confidence interval, and p-value. Multiple logistic regression models were conducted to analyze the genetic data.Results: In our genotype and allele analyses, there were significant differences in the codominant 2 model of the rs3087459 SNP genotype and also in the CGG haplotype between the control group and the asthma group. Genotype and allele analyses were conducted between the deficiency and excess syndrome group. There were significant differences in the dominant and log-additive model and also in the frequency of C-alleles of rs3087459 SNP genotype. There were significant differences in codominant 1, dominant and log-additive model and T-allele of rs5370 SNP genotype. The AGG haplotype also revealed significant differences.Conclusions: EDN1 SNPs (rs3087459, rs5370) showed a significant association with symptomatic excess syndrome in Korean asthmatic patients.

Pre-operative Predictive Factors for Intra-operative Pathological Lymph Node Metastasis in Rectal Cancers

  • Gao, Chun;Li, Jing-Tao;Fang, Long;Wen, Si-Wei;Zhang, Lei;Zhao, Hong-Chuan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.6293-6299
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    • 2013
  • Background: A number of clinicopathologic factors have been found to be associated with pathological lymph node metastasis (pLNM) in rectal cancer; however, most of them can only be identified by expensive high resolution imaging or obtained after surgical treatment. Just like the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores which have been widely used in clinical practice, our study was designed to assess the pre-operative factors which could be obtained easily to predict intra-operative pLNM in rectal cancer. Methods: A cohort of 469 patients who were treated at our hospital in the period from January 2003 to June 2011, and with a pathologically hospital discharge diagnosis of rectal cancer, were included. Clinical, laboratory and pathologic parameters were analyzed. A multivariate unconditional logistic regression model, areas under the curve (AUC), the Kaplan-Meier method (log-rank test) and the Cox regression model were used. Results: Of the 469 patients, 231 were diagnosed with pLNM (49.3%). Four variables were associated with pLNM by multivariate logistic analysis, age<60 yr (OR=1.819; 95% CI, 1.231-2.687; P=0.003), presence of abdominal pain or discomfort (OR=1.637; 95% CI, 1.052-2.547; P=0.029), absence of allergic history (OR=1.879; 95% CI, 1.041-3.392; P=0.036), and direct $bilirubin{\geq}2.60{\mu}mol/L$ (OR=1.540; 95% CI, 1.054-2.250; P=0.026). The combination of all 4 variables had the highest sensitivity (98.7%) for diagnostic performance. In addition, age<60 yr and direct $bilirubin{\geq}2.60{\mu}mol/L$ were found to be associated with prognosis. Conclusion: Age, abdominal pain or discomfort, allergic history and direct bilirubin were associated with pLNM, which may be helpful for preoperative selection.

The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants

  • Kim, Young-Kyun;Kim, Bum-Su;Yun, Pil-Young;Mun, Sang-Un;Yi, Yang-Jin;Kim, Su-Gwan;Jeong, Kyung-In
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.68-75
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: This study was performed to analyze the cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants (Osstem Implant Co., Ltd.) over a seven-year period. Materials and Methods: A total of 105 patients who had 467 Osstem implants that were placed at the Section of Dentistry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (Seongnam, Korea) from June 2003 through December 2005 were analyzed. The life table method and a cross-tubulation analysis, log rank test were used to evaluate the survival curve and the influence that the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors, i.e., age and gender of patients, diameter and length, type of implants, bone graft history and loading time were determined with a Cox proportional hazard model based on logistic regression analysis. Results: The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants was 95.37%. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the following factors had a significant influence on survival rate; increased diameter, reduced prosthetic loading period and performance of bone grafting. Conclusion: The osstem implants showed satisfactory results over the seven-year study period.

An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.