• Title/Summary/Keyword: linear combination

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IMPROVING THE ESP ACCURACY WITH COMBINATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

  • Yu, Seung-Oh;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2004
  • Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

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A Study on the Reds of Kyungbok Palace (경복궁에 표현된 붉은색에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Yoo-Na
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • no.34
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    • pp.114-123
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    • 2002
  • Koreans have regarded the red as a major color from old times. The red is a traditional color to have symbols of high position, national foundation and especially royalty. So, we can see the reds in the palace for kings very much.The purpose of this study is to draw out the features of color red in the Kyungbok palace. The color was analyzed by two categories-architectural buildings${\cdot}$structures and ornamental painted patterns. The major findings from this research are summarized as follows:1. Seokganju(similar to terra rossa) and toyugsaek(light seokganju) are found main colors in architectural space, while seokganju has a linear effect and toyuk has a facial effect. 2. Yugsaek(similar to light vermillion) and Jangdan(similar to orange) are found main colors in ornamental painted patterns. These colors are more vivid and brighter than those for architectural space.3. As for two-color combination, reds and blues(including greens) are found major combination both of architectural space and ornamental patterns. And reds and white are the following combination, which gives an bright image by white. 4. As for three-color combination, red-white-black combination of pediment and red-blue-white combination of openings are found very popular in architectural space, while red-blue-yellow combination is most popular in ornamental patterns.The reds are found dominant color of both architectural space and ornamental patterns in the Kyungbok palace. The color design as shown in the Kyungbok palace can be considered as the feature of traditional color design.

Comparison of prediction methods for Nonlinear Time series data with Intervention1)

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Ju-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2003
  • Time series data are influenced by the external events such as holiday, strike, oil shock, and political change, so the external events cause a sudden change to the time series data. We regard the observation as outlier that occurred as a result of external events. In general, it is called intervention if we know the period and the reason of external events, and it makes an analyst difficult to establish a time series model. Therefore, it is important that we analyze the styles and effects of intervention. In this paper, we considered the linear time series model with invention and compared with nonlinear time series models such as ARCH, GARCH model and also we compared with the combination prediction method that Tong(1990) introduced. In the practical case study, we compared prediction power with RMSE among linear, nonlinear time series model with intervention and combination prediction method.

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Structure Optimization of Double-Sided Iron-Core Type Permanent Magnet Linear Synchronous Machine Using Response Surface Method (반응표면법을 이용한 양측 철심형 영구자석 선형 동기기의 구조 최적화)

  • Lee, Sang-Geon;Zhu, Yu-Wu;Cho, Yun-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.1210-1211
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    • 2011
  • The inherent drawback of iron-core type permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (PMLSM) is detent force that is dependent on several major factors such as PM length, slot clearance, and skewing. To minimize the detent force, this paper proposes a structure optimization using the combination computation of two dimensional (2-D) finite element analysis (FEA) and response surface methodology (RSM). The RSM, that is a collection of the statistical and mathematical techniques, is utilized to predict the global optimal solution based on the FEA calculated results of the detect forces for different combinations of factors. With the help of the combination computation the high capacity iron-core type PMLSM with more than 12000 N propulsion forces only contains less than 3 N detent forces.

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Analysis of Multivariate Financial Time Series Using Cointegration : Case Study

  • Choi, M.S.;Park, J.A.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2007
  • Cointegration(together with VARMA(vector ARMA)) has been proven to be useful for analyzing multivariate non-stationary data in the field of financial time series. It provides a linear combination (which turns out to be stationary series) of non-stationary component series. This linear combination equation is referred to as long term equilibrium between the component series. We consider two sets of Korean bivariate financial time series and then illustrate cointegration analysis. Specifically estimated VAR(vector AR) and VECM(vector error correction model) are obtained and CV(cointegrating vector) is found for each data sets.

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Redundant Robot Control by Neural Optimization Networks (신경망 최적화 회로에 의한 여유자유도를 갖는 로보트의 제어)

  • 현웅근;서일홍
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.638-648
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    • 1990
  • An effective resolved motion control method of redundant manipulators is proposed to minimize the energy consumption and to increase the dexterity while satisfying the physical actuator constraints. The method employs the neural optimization networks, where the computation of Jacobian matrix is not required. Specifically, end effector movement resulting from each joint differential motion is first separated into orthogonal and tangential components with respect to a given desired trajectory. Then the resolved motion is obtained by neural optimization networks in such a way that 1) linear combination of the orthogonal components should be null 2) linear combination of the tangential components should be the differential length of the desired trajectory, 3) differential joint motion limit is not violated, and 4) weighted sum of the square of each differential joint motion is minimized. Here the weighting factors are controlled by a newly defined joint dexterity measure as the ratio of the tangential and orthogonal components.

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A State-Space Transient Response Analysis of Rotor-Bearing System with Base Excitation (기초가진 로터-베어링 시스템의 상태공간 과도응답해석)

  • 이안성;김병옥;김영철;김영춘
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.669-674
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    • 2004
  • In this study, the analytical method to evaluate the response of rotor-bearing system subjected to base excitation was presented. The equations of motion contain speed dependent gyroscopic terms, base rotation dependent parametric terms and several forcing function terms which depend on linear accelerations, rotational accelerations and a combination of linear and rotational combination. The study of rotor-bearing system excited by its base motion is not only able to predict the rotational performance, but provides the fundamental data for vibration isolation. In order to illustrate transient response, transient response analysis of a practical application sample were performed. The transient response was carried out for the given base excitation by using the state-space Newmark method that incorporates the average velocity concept.

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Generalized Cross Decomposition Algorithm for Large Scale Optimization Problems with Applications (대규모 최적화 문제의 일반화된 교차 분할 알고리듬과 응용)

  • Choi, Gyung-Hyun;Kwak, Ho-Mahn
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose a new convex combination weight rule for the cross decomposition method which is known to be one of the most reliable and promising strategies for the large scale optimization problems. It is called generalized cross decomposition, a modification of linear mean value cross decomposition for specially structured linear programming problems. This scheme puts more weights on the recent subproblem solutions other than the average. With this strategy, we are having more room for selecting convex combination weights depending on the problem structure and the convergence behavior, and then, we may choose a rule for either faster convergence for getting quick bounds or more accurate solution. Also, we can improve the slow end-tail behavior by using some combined rules. Also, we provide some computational test results that show the superiority of this strategy to the mean value cross decomposition in computational time and the quality of bounds.

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Solving Dynamic Equation Using Combination of Both Trigonometric and Hyperbolic Cosine Functions for Approximating Acceleration

  • Quoc Do Kien;Phuoc Nguyen Trong
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.19 no.spc1
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    • pp.481-486
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    • 2005
  • This paper introduces a numerical method for integration of the linear and nonlinear differential dynamic equation of motion. The variation of acceleration in two time steps is approximated as a combination of both trigonometric cosine and hyperbolic cosine functions with weighted coefficient. From which all necessary formulae are elaborated for the direct integration of the governing equation. A number of linear and nonlinear dynamic problems with various degrees of freedom are analysed using both the suggested method and Newmark method for the comparison. The numerical results show high advantages and effectiveness of the new method.

A FAST METHOD FOR CODEBOOK SEARCH IN VSELP CODING

  • Sung Joo Kim
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1994.06a
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    • pp.943-948
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    • 1994
  • The vector sum excited linear prediction(VSELP) coding gives high quality of synthetic speech at bit rates as low as 4.8kbps, but its computational complexity is prohibitive for real time applications. In this paper, we propose a method to reduce the computations of the VSELP codebook search procedure. The proposed method reduces the search space efficiently, before applying every linear combination of the basis vectors to the codebook search procedure. It decides whether is can fix the combination coefficient of each basis vector using heuristics so that the number of combinations decreases. It has been shown that the proposed method retains good quality of synthetic speech and reduces the computations of codebook search procedure by more than 40% of the origin.

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