• Title/Summary/Keyword: level probability

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Reliability based calibration of the capacity design rule of reinforced concrete beam-column joints

  • Thomos, George C.;Trezos, Constantin G.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.631-645
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    • 2011
  • The capacity design rule for beam-column joints, as adopted by the EC8, forces the formation of the plastic hinges to be developed in beams rather than in columns. This is achieved by deriving the design moments of the columns of a joint from equilibrium conditions, assuming that plastic hinges with their possible overstrengths have been developed in the adjacent beams of the joint. In this equilibrium the parameters (dimensions, material properties, axial forces etc) are, in general, random variables. Hence, the capacity design is associated with a probability of non-compliance (probability of failure). In the present study the probability of non-compliance of the capacity design rule of joints is being calculated by assuming the basic variables as random variables. Parameters affecting this probability are examined and a modification of the capacity design rule for beam-column joints is proposed, in order to achieve uniformity of the safety level.

Failure Probability Models of Concrete Subjected to Split Tension Repeated- Loads (쪼갬인장 반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 파괴확률 모델)

  • 김동호;김경진;이봉학;윤경구
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.311-314
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    • 2003
  • Concrete structures such as bridge, pavement, airfield, and offshore structure are normally subjected to repeated load. This paper proposes a failure probability models of concrete subjected to split tension repeated-loads, based on experimental results. The fatigue tests were performed at the stress ratio of 0.1, the loading shape of sine, the frequency of 20Hz, and the stress levels of 90, 80 and 70%. The fatigue test specimen was 150mm in diameter and 75mm in thickness. The fatigue analysis did not include which exceeded 0.9 of statistical coefficient of determination values or did not failure at 2$\times$$10^6$ cycles. The graphical method, the moment method, and maximum likelihood estimation method were used to obtain Weibull distribution parameters. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable 5% level of significance. As a result, the proposed failure probability model based on the two-parameter($\alpha and \mu$) Weibull distribution was good enough to estimate accurately the fatigue life subjected to tension mode.

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The Relation of CLR and Blocking Probability for CBR Traffic in the Wireless ATM Access Network

  • Lee, Ha-Cheol;Lee, Byung-Seub
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.27 no.11C
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    • pp.1158-1163
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    • 2002
  • In this paper it is focused on the relation between CLR (Cell Loss Ratio) and blocking probability, GoS(Grade of Services) parameters in the wireless ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) access network which consists of access node and wireless channel. Traffic model of wireless ATM access network is based on the cell scale, burst scale and call connection level. The CLR equation due to buffer overflow for wireless access node is derived for CBR (Constant Bit Rate) traffic. The CLR equation due to random bit errors and burst errors for wireless channel is derived. Using the CLR equation for both access node and wireless channel, the CLR equation of wireless ATM access network is derived. The relation between access network CLR and blocking probability is analyzed for CBR traffic.

Lifetime Reliability Analysis of Irrigation System (관개조직의 수명기간 신뢰성 해석)

  • Kim Han-Joong;Lee Jeong-Jae;Im Sang-Joon
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2003
  • A system reliability method is proposed to decide reliable serviceability of agricultural irrigation system. Even though reliability method is applied to real engineering situations involving actual life environments and maintaining costs, a number of Issues arise as a modeling and analysis level. This article use concepts that can be described the probability of failure with time variant and series-parallel system reliability analysis model. A proposed method use survivor function that can simulate a time-variant performance function for a lifetime before it is required essential maintenance or replacement to define a target probability of failure in agricultural irrigation canal. In the further study, it is required a relationship between a state of probability of failure and current serviceability to make the optimum repair strategy to maintain appropriate serviceability of an irrigation system.

Closed-Form Expressions for Selection Combining System Statistics over Correlated Generalized-K Fading Channels in the Presence of Interference

  • Nikolic, Bojana Z.;Stefanovic, Mihajlo C.;Panic, Stefan R.;Anastasov, Jelena A.;Milosevic, Borivoje
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.320-325
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    • 2011
  • This paper considers the effects of simultaneous correlated multipath fading and shadowing on the performances of a signal-to-interference ratio (SIR)-based dual-branch selection combining (SC) diversity receiver. This analysis includes the presence of cochannel interference. A generalized fading/shadowing channel model in an interference-limited correlated fading environment is modeled by generalized-K distribution. Closed-form expressions are obtained for probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the SC output SIR, as well as for the outage probability. Based on this, the influence of various fading and shadowing parameter values and the correlation level on the outage probability is examined.

A New Formula to Predict the Exact Detection Probability of a Generalized Order Statistics CFAR Detector for a Correlated Rayleigh Target

  • Kim, Chang-Joo
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 1994
  • In this paper we present a new formula which can predict the exact detection probability of a generalized order statistics (GOS) constant false alarm rate (DFAR) detector for a partially correlated Rayleigh target model (0 < $ \rho$< 1) in a closed form, where $\rho$ is the correlation coefficient between returned pulses. By simply substituting a set of specific coefficient into the derived formula, one can obtain the detection probability of any kind of CFAR detector. Detectors may include the order statistics CFAR detector, the censored mean level detector, and the trimmed mean CFAR detector, but are not necessarily restricted to them. The numerical result for the first order Markov correlation model as applied to some of the detectors shows that as $\rho$ increases from zero to one, higher signal-to-noise ratio is required to achieve the same detection probability.

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Mixing matrix estimation method for dual-channel time-frequency overlapped signals based on interval probability

  • Liu, Zhipeng;Li, Lichun;Zheng, Ziru
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.658-669
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    • 2019
  • For dual-channel time-frequency (TF) overlapped signals with low sparsity in underdetermined blind source separation (UBSS), this paper proposes an effective method based on interval probability to estimate and expand the types of mixing matrices. First, the detection of TF single-source points (TF-SSP) is used to improve the TF sparsity of each source. For more distinguishability, as the ratios of the coefficients from different columns of the mixing matrix are close, a local peak-detection mechanism based on interval probability (LPIP) is proposed. LPIP utilizes uniform subintervals to optimize and classify the TF coefficient ratios of the detected TF-SSP effectively in the case of a high level of TF overlap among sources and reduces the TF interference points and redundant signal features greatly to enhance the estimation accuracy. The simulation results show that under both noiseless and noisy cases, the proposed method performs better than the selected mainstream traditional methods, has good robustness, and has low algorithm complexity.

Method determining level of Noise Factor of Taguchi Method under various probability distribution (다양한 확률분포 하에서 다구찌 기법의 잡음인자 수준 정하는 기법)

  • Ree, Sang-Bok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.10-15
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we propose new methods which is to determine level of noise factor. Even Taguchi give level of noise factor which is best(or maximum) and worst(or minimum) condition, we give level of noise factor which is representative value by observing noise factor frequency. Sometimes level of noise factor is given one, two and three. We know this method is more fit in real fields.

Ruin probabilities in a risk process perturbed by diffusion with two types of claims (두 가지 유형의 보험청구가 있는 확산과정 리스크 모형의 파산확률)

  • Won, Ho Jeong;Choi, Seung Kyoung;Lee, Eui Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we introduce a continuous-time risk model where the surplus follows a diffusion process with positive drift while being subject to two types of claims. We assume that the sizes of both types of claims are exponentially distributed and that type I claims occur more frequently, however, their sizes are smaller than type II claims. We obtain the ruin probability that the level of the surplus becomes negative, by establishing an integro-differential equation for the ruin probability. We also obtain the ruin probabilities caused by each type of claim and the probability that the level of the surplus becomes negative naturally due to the diffusion process. Finally, we illustrate a numerical example to compare the impacts of two types of claim on the ruin probability of the surplus with that of the diffusion process in the risk model.

The Human Performance Degradation in Vigilance due to Prolonged and Monotonous Tasks (경계(警戒) 임무(任務) 담당자(擔當者)의 시간지연(時間遲延)에 따르는 인간(人間) 성능(性能)의 변화(變化)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究) 및 개선방안(改善方案))

  • Myun-Woo,Lee
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1974
  • This study is aimed at a validation of the vigilance simulation model which was proposed earlier (2). The model estimates a perceived danger value, an alertness level and the probability of detection at a given elapsed time of vigilance. Twenty-nine male and seven female subjects were given a simple task. They were asked to detect a number(four numbers out of six digits in the telephone directory which have the probability of occurrence in the range of 0.0010-0.0018) in six different experimental conditions, for periods of two to three hours. Analysis of the experiments showed that although the mean detection rate varied slightly in two hours, the within-subject variance and the number of cyclic performance fluctuations increased significantly. A primal factor that affects the performance seems to be the frequency of target occurrence. By curve fitting, the relation between the probability of detection and the percentages of danger event occurrence was derived; $y=0.50(1-{\varepsilon}^{-50x^2})+0.39$. Assuming the equation represents the normal detection rate(100% performance), the Relative Vigilance Performance Rating was calculated. This rating method could be a useful criterion in selecting and training of the vigilance personnel. The results show that the simulation model is a good estimator of human a performance when the probability of danger occurrence is greater than 0.0015; it gives a good reference for improving the vigilance system. Suggestions are made that (1) the validity of proposed functional equations over the extended range of danger probability be studied, (2) an analysis of the cyclic fluctuations of the alertness level be accomplished, and (3) the cost functions of detection reliability be included in any future model.

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