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A Study on the Prediction of Stock Return in Korea's Distribution Industry Using the VKOSPI Index

  • Jeong-Hwan LEE;Gun-Hee LEE;Sam-Ho SON
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the VKOSPI index on short-term stock returns after a large-scale stock price shock of individual stocks of firms in the distribution industry in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology: This study investigates the effect of the change of the VKOSPI index or investor mood on abnormal returns after the event date from January 2004 to July 2022. The significance of the abnormal return, which is obtained by subtracting the rate of return estimated by the market model from the rate of actual return on each trading day after the event date, is determined based on T-test and multifactor regression analysis. Results: In Korea's distribution industry, the simultaneous occurrence of a bad investor mood and a large stock price decline, leads to stock price reversals. Conversely, the simultaneous occurrence of a good investor mood and a large-scale stock price rise leads to stock price drifts. We found that the VKOSPI index has strong explanatory power for these reversals and drifts even after considering both company-specific and event-specific factors. Conclusions: In Korea's distribution industry-related stock market, investors show an asymmetrical behavioral characteristic of overreacting to negative moods and underreacting to positive moods.

론스타 사건에 대한 실체적 및 절차적 쟁점 분석 - ICSID 중재판정을 중심으로 (Substantive and Procedural Issues of the Lone Star Case With a Focus on the ICSID Arbitral Award)

  • 장석영
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.23-49
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    • 2023
  • An ICSID award on Lone Star case has been rendered finally on August 31st, 2022 after almost ten years since the Lone Star Funds submitted the request for arbitration against the Republic of Korea in 2012. The Lone Star case is the first investor-state dispute settlement(ISDS) case brought against Korea, and this case, also known as "eat and run" case, has given rise to heated debates for years. Moreover, as the ICSID tribunal has ordered Korea to pay the Lone Star Funds the sum of USD 216.5 million plus interest in the award, this case has become once again the subject of controversy. Any arguments and evidence submitted by the parties in dispute have not been disclosed until recently, however, as the memorials and the award are now open to the public, it has become possible to realize the assertions of each party and the decisions of the tribunal in detail. Therefore, this paper aims at analyzing the main issues of the Lone Star case with a focus on the ICSID award. By examining the substantive and procedural issues of the case one after the other, it might be able to understand the whole picture of the case and prepare for the remaining procedures of this case and other upcoming cases as well.

미국의 통화정책과 국내 주식 투자자의 반응 (U.S. Monetary Policy and Investor Reactions: Korean Evidence)

  • 박종호
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The primary objective of this article is to investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on institutional / individual / foreign investor reactions in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs a high frequency event study methodology to identify U.S. monetary policy shocks and quantify the impact of identified shocks on investor reactions. The dependent variable in the regression model is net stock purchase, while the explanatory variables are U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated for the period 2000-2019, including 156 FOMC meetings. Findings - Foreign investors immediately sell stocks in response to contractionary U.S. monetary shocks. They do not, however, react to anticipated changes in monetary policy rates, confirming the rationality of foreign investors. Individual investors demonstrate the opposite response, indicating that a non-trivial proportion of individual investors are irrational. Research implications or Originality - This study adds to the current literature on the effect of U.S. monetary policy on the Korean stock market. This study demonstrates a heterogeneous response to U.S. monetary policy shocks, validating the rational investment behavior of foreign investors, while individual investors exhibit a certain degree of irrationality. Methodologically, this study adds to the literature by quantifying the impact of U.S. monetary policy employing a sharper identification method allowing a simple and consistent estimation.

투자유치국의 정치.경제상황 악화로 인한 국제투자분쟁의 해결에 관한 사례연구 -CMS Gas Transmission Company v. Argentine Republic 사건을 중심으로 (A Case Study on the Resolution of International Investment Disputes Caused by Aggravation of Political and Economic Situation of the Host State - Focusing on the case of CMS Gas Transmission Company v. Argentine Republic)

  • 오원석;허해관
    • 무역상무연구
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    • 제36권
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    • pp.87-109
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    • 2007
  • This Comment explores the ICSID case of CMS Gas Transmission Company v. Argentine Republic, awarded on May 12, 2005. The Part II of this Comment first describes the relevant facts of the case including the some background for readers' understanding and the Part III summaries the claimant's requests and the decisions rendered by the Arbitral Tribunal in the Award. At Part IV, the Comment addresses the issue of determinating laws applicable to the merits of dispute in case that the parties of the case have not chosen a governing law, and at Part V, takes a close look into three main issues of (i) the indirect expropriation of the investment, (ii) the breach of fair and equitable treatment and (iii) the protections under umbrella clauses. In this CMS case, we see first that while the Tribunal affirmed that any indirect expropriation can occur from incidental interference depriving the foreign investor of the use or reasonable-to-be-expected economic benefit even if not necessarily to the obvious benefit of the host State, the Tribunal denied the occurrence of indirect expropriation in this case by holding that the Government of Argentina has not breached the standard of protection laid down in the Treaty. Secondly, however, regarding the issue of fair and equitable treatment, we see that the Tribunal, finding Argentina's breach of obligations, affirmed that the foreign investor can expect the host State to act in a consistent manner, free from ambiguity and totally transparently in its relations with the foreign investor, which can give the foreign investor certain degree of foreseeability. Thirdly and finally, we see that, on base of the effect of the umbrella clause, the Tribunal recognized the obligation of the host State undertaken not to freeze the tariff regime or subject it to price controls and not to alter the basic rules governing contracts between the foreign investor and the host State without the first's written consent. However, the protection under the umbrella clause is available only when there is a specific breach of rights and obligations under BIT or a violation of contract rights protected under BIT.

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자발적 정보 공시와 유효법인세율 간의 관련성 연구 (A Study on the Relevance between Voluntary Information Disclosure and Effective Tax Rate)

  • 김진섭
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2017
  • 2000년대 중반 이후 우리나라에서도 기업의 자발적 공시활동의 중요성이 증대되면서 이와 관련한 기업의 활동이 활발해지고 있으며 관련 연구도 지속적으로 이뤄지고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 이러한 추세를 반영하여 자발적 정보공시와 유효법인세율 간의 관련성을 조세회피 측면에서 실증적으로 검증하였다. 이를 위해 자발적 정보공시의 대리변수(proxy)는 기업설명회(IR, Investor Relation)를 활용하였으며, 유효법인세율(Effective Corporate Tax Rate)을 조세회피의 대리변수로 활용하였다. 연구표본은 한국채택국제회계기준(K-IFRS)가 의무적으로 도입된 2011년부터 2014년까지의 12월 결산 유가증권 상장기업 1,396개 기업연도이다. 실증분석 결과, 자발적 정보공시와 유효법인세율은 양(+)의 관련성을 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 추가적인 유효법인세율 측정치를 활용한 분석에서도 동일하게 나타났다. 이는 외부에 자발적으로 정보를 공시하는 기업일수록 시장의 반응을 중시하여 상대적으로 우수한 회계정보를 산출함으로써 상대적으로 조세회피 수준이 낮은 (유효법인세율이 높은) 건전한 경영성과를 보고하는 것으로 기대할 수 있다. 본 연구는 기업의 자발적 정보공시활동(IR)이 기업의 조세회피 수준에 미치는 긍정적인 영향을 대표적인 조세회피 대리변수인 유효법인세율을 통해 검증함으로써, 좀 더 높은 공시수준을 가진 기업들에 대한 좋은 신호(good signal)를 투자자들에게 제공할 것으로 기대할 수 있다. 이를 통해 본 연구가 건전한 자본시장의 발전에 도움이 되기를 기대한다.

암호화폐 투자에서 투자자들의 투기적 행동을 야기하는 원인 규명: 제한된 합리성 이론을 기반으로 (Identifying the Cause of Speculative Investment in Cryptocurrency Investment: Based on the Theory of Bounded Rationality)

  • 김은영;김병초
    • 경영정보학연구
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.33-57
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    • 2020
  • 블록체인 생태계의 혁신을 촉진하는 암호화폐가 여러 목적을 위해 발행됨에도 불구하고, 투자자들은 암호화폐를 시세 차익의 수단으로만 인식한다. 이는 암호화폐의 투기적 측면만을 부각해 암호화폐가 발행되는 근본적인 목적이 무시되고, 블록체인 생태계의 혁신을 방해한다. 본 연구에서는 암호화폐 투자자들의 투기적 행동 원인을 학문적 관점에서 규명한다. 개인들이 기존 주식, 벤처 투자 시 사용하는 의사결정 기준을 통합하고 암호화폐 투자 시 고려해야 할 기준을 추가해 통합하였다. 확립된 모델을 바탕으로 암호화폐에 대한 그릇된 인식의 원인을 제한된 합리성 이론으로 뒷받침한다. 의사결정 기준 정립을 위해 전통적인 벤처 및 엔젤 투자자들이 투자 의사결정 시에 사용하는 변수를 차용하고, 암호화폐 속성을 반영하기 위해 백서의 목차에서 나타난 키워드를 수집하여 암호화폐 투자에 적용 가능한 새로운 변수들을 도출하였다. 본 연구는 Simon이 제시하는 제약들로 인해 개인들이 암호화폐를 투기의 수단만으로 인식하고, 생태계의 건전성을 저해하는 비합리적인 의사결정을 행할 수밖에 없게 된다는 것을 설명한다. 이를 위해 우리는 제한된 지식과 불완전한 정보의 제약을 바탕으로 나누어진 표본이 내린 의사결정에서 합리성의 유의미한 차이가 있는지 분석한다. 그 결과, 불완전한 정보는 투자자들이 비합리적인 기준만을 고려하도록 야기했다. 이 결과로부터, 본 연구는 개인들의 합리적인 투자와 블록체인 생태계의 발전이 함께 추구되기 위해 정보 비대칭이 완화되어야 할 필요가 있음을 시사한다. 또한, 산업이 개인 투자자들의 의사결정에 대하여 더 나은 이해를 가능하게 함으로써, 추후 ICO에서 성공적인 자금 조달이 가능하도록 전략적 인사이트를 포착할 수 있다.

국제투자조약상 포괄적 보호조항(Umbrella Clauses)의 해석에 관한 연구 (Interpretation of the Umbrella Clause in Investment Treaties)

  • 조희문
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.95-126
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    • 2009
  • One of the controversial issues in investor-state investment arbitration is the interpretation of "umbrella clause" that is found in most BIT and FTAs. This treaty clause requires on Contracting State of treaty to observe all investment obligations entered into with foreign investors from the other Contracting State. This clause did not receive in-depth attention until SGS v. Pakistan and SGS v. Philippines cases produced starkly different conclusions on the relations about treaty-based jurisdiction and contract-based jurisdiction. More recent decisions by other arbitral tribunals continue to show different approaches in their interpretation of umbrella clauses. Following the SGS v. Philippines decision, some recent decisions understand that all contracts are covered by umbrella clause, for example, in Siemens A.G. v. Argentina, LG&E Energy Corp. v. Argentina, Sempra Energy Int'l v. Argentina and Enron Corp. V. Argentina. However, other recent decisions have found a different approach that only certain kinds of public contracts are covered by umbrella clauses, for example, in El Paso Energy Int'l Co. v. Argentina, Pan American Energy LLC v. Argentina and CMS Gas Transmission Co. v. Argentina. With relation to the exhaustion of domestic remedies, most of tribunals have the position that the contractual remedy should not affect the jurisdiction of BIT tribunal. Even some tribunals considered that there is no need to exhaust contract remedies before bringing BIT arbitration, provoking suspicion of the validity of sanctity of contract in front of treaty obligation. The decision of the Annulment Committee In CMS case in 2007 was an extraordinarily surprising one and poured oil on the debate. The Committee composed of the three respected international lawyers, Gilbert Guillaume and Nabil Elaraby, both from the ICJ, and professor James Crawford, the Rapportuer of the International Law Commission on the Draft Articles on the Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, observed that the arbitral tribunal made critical errors of law, however, noting that it has limited power to review and overturn the award. The position of the Committee was a direct attack on ICSID system showing as an internal recognition of ICSID itself that the current system of investor-state arbitration is problematic. States are coming to limit the scope of umbrella clauses. For example, the 2004 U.S. Model BIT detailed definition of the type of contracts for which breach of contract claims may be submitted to arbitration, to increase certainty and predictability. Latin American countries, in particular, Argentina, are feeling collectively victims of these pro-investor interpretations of the ICSID tribunals. In fact, BIT between developed and developing countries are negotiated to protect foreign investment from developing countries. This general characteristic of BIT reflects naturally on the provisions making them extremely protective for foreign investors. Naturally, developing countries seek to interpret restrictively BIT provisions, whereas developed countries try to interpret more expansively. As most of cases arising out of alleged violation of BIT are administered in the ICSID, a forum under the auspices of the World Bank, these Latin American countries have been raising the legitimacy deficit of the ICSID. The Argentine cases have been provoking many legal issues of international law, predicting crisis almost coming in actual investor-state arbitration system. Some Latin American countries, such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina, already showed their dissatisfaction with the ICSID system considering withdrawing from it to minimize the eventual investor-state dispute. Thus the disagreement over umbrella clauses in their interpretation is becoming interpreted as an historical reflection on the continued tension between developing and developed countries on foreign investment. There is an academic and political discussion on the possible return of the Calvo Doctrine in Latin America. The paper will comment on these problems related to the interpretation of umbrella clause. The paper analyses ICSID cases involving principally Latin American countries to identify the critical legal issues arising between developing and developed countries. And the paper discusses alternatives in improving actual investor-State investment arbitration; inter alia, the introduction of an appellate system and treaty interpretation rules.

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국제투자분쟁에서 중재사례를 통해 본 공정.공평대우의 기준 (The Fair and Equitable Treatment Standards through the Arbitral Award Cases under International Investment Disputes)

  • 최영주;황지현
    • 무역상무연구
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    • 제57권
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to clarify the standard of fair and equitable treatment. Although most international investment treaties prescribe fair and equitable treatment that is the obligation to provide fair and equitable treatment to foreign investor, there is no clear definition and specific elements of fair and equitable treatment. Through the arbitral award cases we can find that tribunals have interpreted to include six principles; Due process & Protection from denial of justice, Good faith, Reasonableness & Nondiscrimination, Compliance with contractual obligation, Full protection and security, Transparency & Protection of the investor's legitimate expectations. This study suggest that host countries and investors focus on international trends concerning investment disputes in order to avoid future disputes. So future disputes can be prevented and prepared in advance.

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최근의 EU 회원국간 양자투자협정과 투자자-국가 분쟁 동향 - Achmea BV v. Slovakia 사건을 중심으로 - (Achmea BV v. Slovakia: The End of the Intra-EU BIT and the Investor State Dispute?)

  • 강성진
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.201-216
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    • 2018
  • After the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union's Common Commercial Policy now belongs to the exclusive competence area of the EU, including the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy. Regarding the bilateral investment protection treaties (BITs) between the EU Member States, the European Commission is of the view that such BITs should be discarded. On March 6, 2018, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) held in the Achmea BV v. Slovakia case that a BIT between the EU Member States, as well as arbitral awards based on that BIT, is not subject to request for preliminary rulings under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), and thus they are not compatible with the EU law. However, the judgment did not silence the controversy. Instead, many people questioned the legal reasoning and the legitimacy of judgment, and therefore the problem is still ongoing.

Recent Developments in the EU Investment Policy : Towards an Investment World Court?

  • Giupponi, Belen Olmos
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.175-230
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    • 2016
  • The controversies that have surrounded the negotiation of both the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have underlined the difficulties arising out from the adoption of a truly common EU investment policy. Non-governmental organizations have called into question transparency and legitimacy of international investment arbitration during the negotiations. The article presents a reflection about current developments of the EU investment policy addressing, in particular, the criticisms towards the whole investor-to-State system and the EU's efforts in developing a "tailor-made" investment agreement and Investor-to-State Dispute resolution system. Along these lines, the article critically assesses the recently announced proposal for the establishment of an 'Investment Court System' put forward by the EU during the TTIP negotiations.