• Title/Summary/Keyword: investment simulation

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A Study on the Framework of Decision Making on the Facility Investment of Production Automation Using CYCLONE Techniques (사이클론 기법 기반 생산자동화의 설비투자 의사결정 Framework에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Hyeon-ki;Lee, Dong-soo;Bae, Jeong-hoon;Shin, Sung-chul;Kim, Soo-young;Lee, Jae-chul;Jeong, Bo-yong
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.420-427
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    • 2016
  • The marine equipment companies expanding facility investment in accordance with the booming economy are suffering from the reduced demand and the growth of chinese businesses. In this regard, the risk of overinvestment and the importance of prudent equipment investment must be reconsidered. Thus, in this study we performed a productivity and economical efficiency analysis in order to evaluate the investment value on production facilities in a company under the present conditions. The freezer of a fishing vessel manufactured by N company is selected as the subject of our study, while the assembly and welding cooling plates are configured as the scope of automation. Analysis on productivity and economical efficiency was conducted through CYCLONE (Cyclic Operation Network) simulation and economic analysis methods after analyzing the production process of freezer. The proposed analytical technique can be used to support the investment decision in production automation equipment of fishing vessels freezer.

The Application of Optimal Control Through Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Economy

  • SYAHRINI, Intan;MASBAR, Raja;ALIASUDDIN, Aliasuddin;MUNZIR, Said;HAZMI, Yusri
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.741-750
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    • 2021
  • The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

Determination of New Layout in a Semiconductor Packaging Substrate Line using Simulation and AHP/DEA (시뮬레이션과 AHP/DEA를 이용한 반도체 부품 생산라인 개선안 결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Soo;Park, Chul-Soon;Moon, Dug-Hee
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.264-275
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    • 2012
  • The process of semiconductor(IC Package) manufacturing usually includes lots of complex and sequential processes. Many kinds of equipments are installed with the mixed concept of serial and parallel manufacturing system. The business environments of the semiconductor industry have been changed frequently, because new technologies are developed continuously. It is the main reason of new investment plan and layout consideration. However, it is difficult to change the layout after installation, because the major equipments are expensive and difficult to move. Furthermore, it is usually a multiple-objective problem. Thus, new investment or layout change should be carefully considered when the production environments likewise product mix and production quantity are changed. This paper introduces a simulation case study of a Korean company that produces packaging substrates(especially lead frames) and requires multi-objective decision support. $QUEST^{(R)}$ is used for simulation modelling and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) are used for weighting of qualitative performance measures and solving multiple-objective layout problem, respectively.

Multiobjective Decision Model with Consideration of Flexibility in Sequential Capital Budgeting

  • Min, Kye-Ryo;Park, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.53-80
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    • 1981
  • This paper explores a rational investment decision model in sequential capital allocation process under capital rationing. A method is proposed for measuring the new investment decision factor which is the flexibility that describes the future availability of invested funds. This flexibility is important in sequential decision process. Also presented is a multiobjective (MO) decision model into which flexibility is incorporated with the profit and risk factors. The effectiveness of this criterion is compared with the expected present value and the mean-semivariance criteria through a simulation model.

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Optimal Transmission Expansion Planning Considering the Uncertainties of Power Market (전력시장 불확실성을 고려한 최적 송전시스템 확장계획)

  • Son, Min-Kyun;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.560-566
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    • 2008
  • Today, as the power trades between generation companies and power customer are liberalized, the uncertainty level of operated power system is rapidly increased. Therefore, transmission operators as decision makers for transmission expansion are required to establish a deliberate investment plan for effective operations of transmission facilities considering forecasted conditions of power system. This paper proposes the methodology for the optimal solution of transmission expansion in deregulated power system. The paper obtains the expected value of transmission congestion cost for various scenarios by using occurrence probability. In addition, the paper assumes that increasing rates of loads are the probability distribution and indicates the location of expanded transmission line, the time for transmission expansion with the minimum cost for the future by performing the Montecarlo simulation. To minimize the investment risk as the variance of the congestion cost, Mean-Variance Markowitz portfolio theory is applied to the optimization model by the penalty factor of the variance. By the case study, the optimal solution for transmission expansion plan considering the feature of market participants is obtained.

Test bed for Advanced function of Smart Inverter and Results Based on Real-Time Simulation Platform (실시간 시뮬레이터 기반의 스마트 인버터 제어기능 시험 환경 구축 및 시험 결과)

  • Sim, Junbo;Ban, Minho;Lim, Hyeonok;Cho, Seong-Soo
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2021
  • High penetration of renewable energy generators causes unnecessary investment for power system facilities. Especially with Korean government policies such as Renewable Energy 3020 and Inter-connection support Responsibility of KEPCO for 1 MW DERs, the applications of DER interconnection in distribution system have been increasing. To save the investment, smart control functions for DERs are required and the test bed for the inverters which have not been prepared are necessary to insure DER inter-connection stability. For this, test bed for advanced functions of a smart inverter has been constructed and the tests for necessary functions have been implemented. In this paper, the test bed and environment as well as specifications are introduced and the test results for the validation of the functions are analyzed.

An Optimal Investment Planning Model for Improving the Reliability of Layered Air Defense System based on a Network Model (다층 대공방어 체계의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 네트워크 모델 기반의 최적 투자 계획 모델)

  • Lee, Jinho;Chung, Suk-Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2017
  • This study considers an optimal investment planning for improving survivability from an air threat in the layered air defense system. To establish an optimization model, we first represent the layered air defense system as a network model, and then, present two optimization models minimizing the failure probability of counteracting an air threat subject to budget limitation, in which one deals with whether to invest and the other enables continuous investment on the subset of nodes. Nonlinear objective functions are linearized using log function, and we suggest dynamic programming algorithm and linear programing for solving the proposed models. After designing a layered air defense system based on a virtual scenario, we solve the two optimization problems and analyze the corresponding optimal solutions. This provides necessity and an approach for an effective investment planning of the layered air defense system.

A study on the construction of a financial feasibility evaluation model for private investment projects in the port sector using system dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 항만분야 민간투자사업 재무적타당성 평가 모형 구축 연구)

  • Cheon, Minsoo;Jeon, Junwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2021
  • Private investment projects have the characteristic of generating profits for a long period of 30 to 40 years, and fluctuations in profits and costs occur over time, so the interaction of variables over time rather than statistical models or discounted cash flows If the system dynamics technique, which enables simulation of the system, is used, it is considered that meaningful simulation results can be derived for internal and external variables. In other words, by establishing a financial feasibility comparison/verification model based on system dynamics for private investment projects in the port sector that have not been attempted before, we compare the differences with the existing cash flow discount method, macroeconomic factors, operating period, social discount rate We will conduct a differentiated study that has not been tried before by simulating how the interrelationships of such variables affect the change in financial performance.

LCC Analysis of Residential Dehumidifying Air Conditioning System using Thin Separation Membrane (분리막을 이용한 주거용 제습공조시스템의 LCC 분석)

  • Jung, Yong-Ho;Park, Seong-Ryong
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2018
  • The climate of summer in Korea is quite hot and humid. Many studies have been carried out to reduce the energy required for operating a dehumidifier. The dehumidifier is mainly connected to the cooling system since it operates in the summer. Conventional dehumidification methods often require additional cooling and energy for dehumidification. In this study, a system for increasing the efficiency by applying a membrane was analyzed. Its energy saving effect was analyzed when it was applied to residential buildings. Economic efficiency was also evaluated. As a result of this study, 9.0% energy savings were achieved for residential buildings. The investment recovery period was 28.9 years. Such long investment recovery period was because the initial investment cost was excessive and annual energy saving only appeared in the summer.

Long-Run Behavior of R&D Investment and Economic Growth : A Macro-Econometric Model

  • Shin, Tae-Young
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2004.02a
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    • pp.83-107
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    • 2004
  • This study investigates how and through which channels R&D activities influences the national economy, using a macro-econometric model. The macro-econometric model in this study includes 24 behavioral equations and 25 identities and was estimated using the annual data. From a simulation analysis, it is shown that the R&D investment has a permanent effect on real variables; lowering prices, wages and interest rates, and increasing potential and real GDP in the long run. It is noted that the national account was recalculated to avoid double-counting in estimation of R&D stocks.

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