• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.27-50
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• 2014

Korea government established the energy technology development plan (2011-2020) and declared to be a leader of the green energy technologies. The plan aims for 10% market share in the green energy industry, 12% energy efficiency improvement, and 15% greenhouse gas reduction. In order to achieve these goals, the government has tried to calculate the whole scale of national energy R&D investment, annual budget and specific expenditures for new technologies by computer simulation. The simulation modules include the R&D investment model, GDP model, energy consumption and $CO_2$ emission model by System Dynamics. Based on these simulation modules, I tested various scenarios for effectiveness of energy R&D investments until 2020. The results show that Korea should increase national energy R&D investment to 2.3 billion U.S. dollars, and switch the investment from electricity and nuclear power to the renewable energy.

• 경영과학
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.53-64
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• 2012

This paper is about the investment strategy in stocks on Fundamental analysis. Financial data of stocks from January 2. 2001 through October 30. 2009 were utilized in order to suggest the investment strategies. Fundamental analysis was used in stocks-related strategy. The portfolios are composed of 3 criteria such as the buying criteria score, exchange cycle and selling conditions. The buying criteria score is determined assigned to each stock index according to the satisfaction condition of 15 parameters selected considering the grue's criteria. The stock buying alternatives has two options with buying stocks over 13 points and over 14 points of buying criteria score. The seven exchange cycles and three selling methods are considered. So total number of portfolios is 42($2{\times}7{\times}3=42$). The simulation has been executed about each 42 portfolios and we figured out with the simulation result that 83.33% of 35 portfolios are more profitable than average stock market profit(203.43%). The outcome of this research is summarized in two parts. First, it's the exchange strategy of portfolio. The result shows that value-oriented investment (long-term investment) strategy yields much higher than short-term investment strategies of stocks. Second, it's about the exchange cycle forming the portfolios. The result shows that the rate of return for the portfolio is the best when exchange cycle is 18 months.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2002

Experimental design in simulation provides an efficient way of economizing simulation runs since a considerable number of simulation runs that originally were planned can be reduced by this approach. This experimental design method is an active area of research together with the output analysis and so no single panacea seems to exist so far. Thus, selection of techniques of experimental design and output analysis more likely depends upon the objective of simulation analysis, budget constraint and sometimes the analyst's subjective judgment. This paper attempts to describe an experimental design methodology for port investment analysis using a case study in a bulk terminal in Korea. Detailed display will be focused on simulation period, warm-up period, the number of replications needed in production runs after brief explanation on the system configuration.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.87-97
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• 1995

Simulation techniques are used to improve the productivity of a textile factory. A simulation model is developed for the analysis of investment for dyeing process equipment, such as dryers and bleachers. For modeling and analysis, AIM (Analyzer for Improving Manufacturing) is used. AIM is a manufacturing oriented simulation software developed by Pritsker Corp. AIM provides interactive model building and simulation, automatic animation, and powerful graphic outputs. thereby, drastically reducing modeling efforts and also enhancing communication capabilities.

• 산업공학
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.300-310
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• 2010

This paper is about an optimal investment portfolio strategy. Financial data of stocks, bonds, and savings from January 2. 2001 through October 30. 2009 were utilized in order to suggest the optimal portfolio strategies. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis were used in stocks-related strategy, whereas passive investment strategy and active investment strategy were used in bond-related strategy. The score is assigned to each stock index according to the suggested strategies and set trading rules are based on the scores. The simulation has been executed about each 29,400-portfolios and we figured out with the simulation result that 26.75% of 7,864 portfolios are more profitable than average stock market profit (22.6%, Annualized). The outcome of this research is summarized in two parts. First, it's the rebalancing strategy of portfolio. The result shows that value-oriented investment(long-term investment) strategy yields much higher than short-term investment strategies of stocks or active investment of bonds. Second, it's about the rebalancing cycle forming the portfolios. The result shows that the rate of return for the portfolio is the best when rebalancing cycle is 12 or 18 months.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 2001년도 The Seoul International Simulation Conference
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• pp.340-345
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• 2001

Electric power market in Japan is now on the trend of deregulation and privatization just like in Europe and the United States. And various approaches for risk management have been investigated taking the electric power price fluctuation after the deregulation into account. The behavior of the investment in power generation plants has not, however, been studied in detail yet due to the complexity of the problem. The problem of the investment in the deregulated power market is that of autonomous decentralized decision-making system, which includes various kinds of decision-makers, that is, power producers called IPPS Each generator has its own criteria for plant investment. Therefore, the total behavior of the decentralized power market will be so complicated, and normative approach will not be applicable fur this analysis. We have developed a simulation-based system fur behavioral analysis and also the framework design of the decentralized power market.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.533-554
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• 2004

Real option valuation considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding implementation of investment projects and deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real asset based on Monte Carlo simulation. This research uses a binomial model to obtain point estimate of real option value with embedded expansion option case and provides also an array of numerical results to show the interval estimation of option value using Monte Carlo simulation.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.57-73
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze the diffusion period and productivity of smartwork in an organization. Firms are increasingly interested in smartwork for non contact work and working from home because of the corona 19. The smartwork is a new technology that changes face-to-face work in an organization. It helps the work of individuals and organizations regardless of time and place. The theoretical background describes the complexity, system thinking, diffusion theory, smart work, organizational resistance, and productivity. This study analyzes the diffusion period and productivity of smart work through business simulation techniques. A simulation study progresses four stages. There are problem definition, hypothesis establishment and causal loop diagram, model construction and verification, and policy evaluation. The simulation models contain an individual's resistance variables organizational investment and leadership variables related to the operation of smartwork. The organizational investment variables include organizational culture, legal system, implement systems and technology investment. The individual resistance variables include cognitive, attitude, structure and technological resistance. The leadership includes leadership interest variables and performance linkage variables. The simulation executed the changes of a people number adopting smart work and the organizational productivity monthly. As a result of the simulation, many organization members have accepted the smart work innovation after 20 months. The organizational productivity through smart work showed very high value after 16 months. In scenario analysis, the individuals' awareness and attitude resistance showed very important variables to productivity and a personal change of smart work adoption. Meanwhile, The organizational investment showed that the high driving-force increased not productivity and the low driving-force showed decreased low productivity. Also, leadership variables showed a powerful driver for changing smart work productivity. The implication of the study has suggested extending complexity, diffusion theory and organization resistance theory based on simulation methods.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제49권10호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2011

This paper examined how men and women differ in the attitude and behaviour of financial risk tolerance. The results showed that women were less risk seeking than men in financial risk tolerance. The results of the investment simulation indicated that men invested in higher risk assets like stock. In contrast, women prefered to invest in lower risk assets like real estate. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that if investors have the propensity to take more risk they allocated their money to higher risk assets in the simulation. This analysis also showed that the surveyed respondents invested in risky assets if they had experience in high risk investment in the past.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 2001년도 The Seoul International Simulation Conference
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• pp.72-76
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• 2001

Experimental design in simulation provides an efficient way of economizing simulation runs since a considerable number of simulation runs that originally were planned can be reduced by this approach. This experimental design method is an active area of research together with the output analysis and so no single panacea seems to exist so far. Thus, selection of techniques of experimental design and output analysis more lithely depends upon the objective of simulation analysis, budget constraint and sometimes the analysts subjective judgment. This paper attempts to describe an experimental design methodology for port investment analysis using a case study in a bulk terminal in Korea. Detailed display will be focused on simulation period, warm-up period, the number of replications needed in production runs after brief explanation on the system configuration.