Predicting the Effectiveness of National Energy R&D Investment in Korea: Application of System Dynamics

Korea government established the energy technology development plan (2011-2020) and declared to be a leader of the green energy technologies. The plan aims for 10% market share in the green energy industry, 12% energy efficiency improvement, and 15% greenhouse gas reduction. In order to achieve these goals, the government has tried to calculate the whole scale of national energy R&D investment, annual budget and specific expenditures for new technologies by computer simulation. The simulation modules include the R&D investment model, GDP model, energy consumption and $CO_2$ emission model by System Dynamics. Based on these simulation modules, I tested various scenarios for effectiveness of energy R&D investments until 2020. The results show that Korea should increase national energy R&D investment to 2.3 billion U.S. dollars, and switch the investment from electricity and nuclear power to the renewable energy.