• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 기술경영경제학회 2004년도 제24회 동계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.108-131
• /
• 2004

Having the characteristics of public goods, Radio Spectrum had been controlled by Government Authorities. In the past, technological side of spectrum, such as cross protection, was the main concern, but as the telecommunication industry is developing gradually, economic side of spectrum is becoming an important part. To uplift the Economic efficiency of spectrum management policy, clarifying the basic value of spectrum is one of the most important things. Also, both government authorities and spectrum licensees will have to choose license or investment under uncertainties such as license timing, time to market, technology standard, and so on. Considering all things, this paper gives the value to the spectrum by real options theory, which is a powerful method concerning uncertainty, especially for government, And we applied it to a specific spectrum band for the portable Internet in Korea. These results can provide information about the technological standard, optimal market-entry time as well as the value of spectrum for the portable Internet.

• 기술혁신연구
• /
• 제14권3호
• /
• pp.237-261
• /
• 2006

Under circumstances with increasing uncertainty, strategic flexibility has become an essential point on which my R&D management system should be based. Unfortunately the present R&D management system for government sponsored R&D programs cannot be said to be so flexible to adapt appropriately to various threatens such as technological failure, a severe change in competition environment, and so on. In this paper a new scheme for R&D planning and economic assessment with strategic flexibility is suggested and applied to a real R&D program. In the newly suggested R&D management system, economic valuation based on real option theory is performed for various alternative scenarios which have different strategic scheme for R&D process each and the result of the assessment is fed back to R&D planning to choose more superior strategic scheme. Introducing strategic flexibility into R&D planning and economic assessment, the value of R&D project could be remarkably enhanced.

• 기술혁신학회지
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.533-554
• /
• 2004

Real option valuation considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding implementation of investment projects and deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real asset based on Monte Carlo simulation. This research uses a binomial model to obtain point estimate of real option value with embedded expansion option case and provides also an array of numerical results to show the interval estimation of option value using Monte Carlo simulation.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국기술혁신학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.181-198
• /
• 2002

This article describes a methodology for evaluating huge aerospace R&D investments using the real options pricing method. Option pricing has been proposed as a useful approach for modeling investment in R&D. Two important features of R&D investments are that an R&D project takes time to complete and that the outcome of R&D investments is highly uncertain. This makes the analysis of R&D investments difficult. Traditional tools for project evaluation, like IRR or the NPV, are inadequate for coping with the high uncertainty. Hence, In this article I propose a log-transformed binomal lattice method, and it will show that option pricing might be an adequate framework for evaluating such types of aerospace investments.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.581-605
• /
• 2018

In the soft drink industry, especially small and medium enterprises in Japan, there is a possibility of conversion from a labor-intensive industry to a capital-intensive. The demand for soft drinks may not be satisfied in the summer because the supply is too low to meet the demand. To address this situation, this paper proposes optimal investment that integrates demand uncertainty, based on real options approach (ROA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Two alternative options are compared and evaluated. One is the Bermudan option: to employ additional workers to elevate efficiency in summer and laying off in winter, this attitude is repeated each year. The other is the American option: to replace equipment to increase machine ability throughout the year. Results in ROA show that the highest improvement is gained if the two options are in a symbiotic relationship. Soft drink producers should search for replacing equipment, using the employees repeatedly. A temporary decision is not equal to an infinite decision.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제51권5호
• /
• pp.439-449
• /
• 2018

수문 기상레이더는 강우량을 바로 추정하지 못하고 여러 단계의 정량적 강우량 추정과정을 거치게 되므로 많은 불확실성 발생요소가 존재한다. 불확실성 관련한 기존 연구들은 정량적 레이더기반 강우량 추정과정에서 보정방법을 이용하여 각 단계별 불확실성을 줄이는 연구들을 수행하였다. 하지만 기존 연구들은 전체 과정에 대한 포괄적인 불확실성을 나타내지 못하고 각 단계별 불확실성의 상대적인 비율도 제시하지 못하는 단점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 정량적 레이더강우량 추정과정의 각 단계별 불확실성을 정량화하고 불확실성 전파를 나타낼 수 있는 적합한 방법을 제시하였다. 첫 번째로 초기와 최종 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성의 변동과 상대적인 비율을 나타낼 수 있는 새로운 개념을 제안하였다. 두 번째로 레이더기반 추정과정의 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정을 분석하기 위해 Maximum Entropy Method (MEM)와 Uncertainty Delta Method (UMD)를 적용하였다. 세 번째로 레이더기반 강우량 추정과정의 불확실성 정량화를 위해 2개 품질관리 알고리즘, 2개 강우량 추정방법, 2개 후처리 강우량 보정방법을 2012년 여름철 18개 사례에 대하여 사용하였다. 적용결과, MEM에서 최종 불확실성(후처리 강우량 보정 불확실성: ME = 3.81)이 초기 불확실성(품질관리 불확실성: ME = 4.28)보다 작게 나타났으며, UMD에서도 최종 불확실성(UMD = 4.75)이 초기 불확실성(UMD = 5.33)보다 작게 나타나 불확실성이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 레이더강우량 추정단계의 불확실성은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 레이더강우량 추정과정에서 각 단계별로 적합한 방법을 선정하는 것이 각 단계별로 불확실성이 감소시킬 수 있음을 확인하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 새로운 방법이 명확히 불확실성을 정량화할 수 있으며 정확한 정량적 레이더 강우추정에 기여할 것으로 판단한다.

• 지식경영연구
• /
• 제11권5호
• /
• pp.59-78
• /
• 2010

In this paper, we arrange the concept of 'Green' in SCM after literature study of Green SCM and investigate causal relationships between influencing factors, practice level and environmental performance focused on Korean firms empirically and conduct path analysis for hypothesis test using partial least squares regression with bootstrap. Firstly, we divide influencing factors of Green SCM into environmental and organizational factors through the previous studies of innovation diffusion theory and environmental management theory, and then we selected 'uncertainty', 'competitiveness' as the environmental factors and 'top management support', 'perceived benefit', 'training' as the organizational factors. Secondly, we classify practice level of Green SCM into 'internal environmental management', 'green purchasing', 'eco-design'. Finally, we selected 'financial performance', 'environmental performance' as the organizational performance. We conducted a survey on the middle manager of manufacturing companies implementing SCM and an empirical analysis. The results of analysis show that there exist causal relationships between influencing factors, practice level, and environmental performance of Green SCM. We expect that the result of this study will suggest useful information to managers who are responsible for SCM to design and execute Green SCM in strategic perspectives.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제14권9호
• /
• pp.5-13
• /
• 2016

Purpose - This study proposes a framework for service innovation strategy to cope with the emergence of electric vehicles. Research design, data, and methodology - This study designs an electric-vehicle lease program and collects the resulting data to analyze. By analyzing the previous studies on the electric-vehicle market with cases, a theoretical framework based on existing theories is to be set. Results - This study proposes a strategy for the rapid diffusion of electric vehicles. First, a partitioned-pricing system is proposed to create an advantage for electric vehicles in terms of initial purchasing cost relative to traditional internal combustion vehicles. Second, focusing on reducing switching costs is important because electric vehicles have relatively low resale values due to the uncertainty of battery life. Third, a battery-leasing strategy is supposed to reduce the cost of switching from a traditional internal combustion vehicle to an electric vehicle. Conclusions - This paper can provide strategic guidance for decision makers in firms that have already entered the electric-vehicle leasing market by making a recommendation such as a service innovation strategy. The proposed strategy can be considered as an electric vehicle market in the future and can contribute to the wider diffusion of electric vehicles.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.191-195
• /
• 2023

An X-event is an event that is difficult to predict and unlikely to occur, but if it occurs, it has a very large ripple effect, such as loss of life, property, territory, and emotional turmoil. Extreme events are unlikely to occur, but they can happen someday, and if they do, they have a great impact on society as a whole, so they must be prepared to minimize the impact and impact. For this purpose, we collected opinions from low-level experts at the Korea Army Research Center for Future & Innovation and the Army College on extreme events that can trigger the near future (10 years) in the field of high-tech science and technology, which is currently developing rapidly after the 4th Industrial Revolution. The researchers intend to synthesize and analyze this data to derive implications and provide a response direction to alleviate the ultra-uncertainty of extreme events and provide a cornerstone for crisis management strategies for the occurrence of serial and simultaneous extreme events.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
• /
• 제22권3호
• /
• pp.99-124
• /
• 2012

Our society has long been talking about necessity for innovation. Since companies in particular need to carry out business innovation in their overall processes, they have attempted to apply many innovation factors on sites and become to pay more attention to their innovation. In order to achieve this goal, companies has applied various information technologies (IT) on sites as a means of innovation, and consequently IT have been greatly developed. It is natural for the field of IT to have faced another revolution which is called cloud computing, which is expected to result in innovative changes in software application via the Internet, data storing, the use of devices, and their operations. As a vehicle of innovation, cloud computing is expected to lead the changes and advancement of our society and the business world. Although many scholars have researched on a variety of topics regarding the innovation via IT, few studies have dealt with the issue of could computing as IT. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to set the variables of innovation attributes based on the previous articles as the characteristic variables and clarify how these variables affect "Performance Expectancy" of companies and the intention of using cloud computing. The result from the analysis of data collected in this study is as follows. The study utilized a research model developed on the innovation diffusion theory to identify influences on the adaptation and spreading IT for cloud computing services. Second, this study summarized the characteristics of cloud computing services as a new concept that introduces innovation at its early stage of adaptation for companies. Third, a theoretical model is provided that relates to the future innovation by suggesting variables for innovation characteristics to adopt cloud computing services. Finally, this study identified the factors affecting expectation and the intention to use the cloud computing service for the companies that consider adopting the cloud computing service. As the parameter and dependent variable respectively, the study deploys the independent variables that are aligned with the characteristics of the cloud computing services based on the innovation diffusion model, and utilizes the expectation for performance and Intention to Use based on the UTAUT theory. Independent variables for the research model include Relative Advantage, Complexity, Compatibility, Cost Saving, Trialability, and Observability. In addition, 'Acceptance for Adaptation' is applied as an adjustment variable to verify the influences on the expected performances from the cloud computing service. The validity of the research model was secured by performing factor analysis and reliability analysis. After confirmatory factor analysis is conducted using AMOS 7.0, the 20 hypotheses are verified through the analysis of the structural equation model, accepting 12 hypotheses among 20. For example, Relative Advantage turned out to have the positive effect both on Individual Performance and on Strategic Performance from the verification of hypothesis, while it showed meaningful correlation to affect Intention to Use directly. This indicates that many articles on the diffusion related Relative Advantage as the most important factor to predict the rate to accept innovation. From the viewpoint of the influence on Performance Expectancy among Compatibility and Cost Saving, Compatibility has the positive effect on both Individual Performance and on Strategic Performance, while it showed meaningful correlation with Intention to Use. However, the topic of the cloud computing service has become a strategic issue for adoption in companies, Cost Saving turns out to affect Individual Performance without a significant influence on Intention to Use. This indicates that companies expect practical performances such as time and cost saving and financial improvements through the adoption of the cloud computing service in the environment of the budget squeezing from the global economic crisis from 2008. Likewise, this positively affects the strategic performance in companies. In terms of effects, Trialability is proved to give no effects on Performance Expectancy. This indicates that the participants of the survey are willing to afford the risk from the high uncertainty caused by innovation, because they positively pursue information about new ideas as innovators and early adopter. In addition, they believe it is unnecessary to test the cloud computing service before the adoption, because there are various types of the cloud computing service. However, Observability positively affected both Individual Performance and Strategic Performance. It also showed meaningful correlation with Intention to Use. From the analysis of the direct effects on Intention to Use by innovative characteristics for the cloud computing service except the parameters, the innovative characteristics for the cloud computing service showed the positive influence on Relative Advantage, Compatibility and Observability while Complexity, Cost saving and the likelihood for the attempt did not affect Intention to Use. While the practical verification that was believed to be the most important factor on Performance Expectancy by characteristics for cloud computing service, Relative Advantage, Compatibility and Observability showed significant correlation with the various causes and effect analysis. Cost Saving showed a significant relation with Strategic Performance in companies, which indicates that the cost to build and operate IT is the burden of the management. Thus, the cloud computing service reflected the expectation as an alternative to reduce the investment and operational cost for IT infrastructure due to the recent economic crisis. The cloud computing service is not pervasive in the business world, but it is rapidly spreading all over the world, because of its inherited merits and benefits. Moreover, results of this research regarding the diffusion innovation are more or less different from those of the existing articles. This seems to be caused by the fact that the cloud computing service has a strong innovative factor that results in a new paradigm shift while most IT that are based on the theory of innovation diffusion are limited to companies and organizations. In addition, the participants in this study are believed to play an important role as innovators and early adapters to introduce the cloud computing service and to have competency to afford higher uncertainty for innovation. In conclusion, the introduction of the cloud computing service is a critical issue in the business world.