• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.49-66
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• 2014

This paper studies optimal consumption and investment behaviors of an individual when risky asset returns and her income are affected by the business cycle. The investor considers the incomplete information risk of unobservable macroeconomic conditions and updates her belief of expected risky asset returns through Bayesian learning. We find that the optimal investment strategy, certainty equivalent wealth, and portfolio hedging demand significantly depend on the belief about the macroeconomic conditions.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제40권3호
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• pp.291-298
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• 2014

Demand forecasting plays a key role in overall business activities such as production planning, distribution management, and inventory management. Especially, for a fast-changing environment of the clothing industry, logical forecasting techniques are required. In this study, we propose a procedure to predict product life cycle using data mining algorithms. The proposed procedure involves three steps : extracting key variables from profiles, clustering, and classification. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed procedure were demonstrated through a real data from a leading clothing company in Korea.

• 산학경영연구
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• 제10권
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• pp.207-232
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• 1997

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.667-678
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• 2021

The industrial life cycle theory was extended to the product life cycle theory and the corporate life cycle theory, but a conceptual life cycle was presented, and quantitative empirical evidence for this was insufficient. It is intended to improve appropriate resource planning and resource allocation by quantitatively predicting the industrial cycle and its position (age) in the cycle. Human resources, tangible assets, and industrial output analysis were conducted based on 28 years of actual data of 39 industries in Korea by applying the Gompertz model, which is a population ecology prediction model. By predicting with the Gompertz model, the coefficient of determination R2 value was 97% or more, confirming the high suitability with the actual cumulative sales value of the industry. A numerical model for calculating the life cycle of each industry, calculating the saturation of input resources for each industry, and diagnosing the financial stability of the industry was presented. These results will contribute to the decision-making of industrial policy officers for budget planning appropriately for each stage of industry development. Future research will apply the numerical model of this study to foreign national industries, complete an inter-industry convergence diagnostic model (e.g. ease of convergence, suitability of convergence, etc.) for renewal of fading industries.

• 지역연구
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.3-19
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• 2017

본 연구의 목적은 지역의 산업다양성이 지역의 경기변동에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 분석하는 데 있다. 지역의 경기변동은 고용시장과 생산활동의 측면에서 측정하였고 2005년 1월부터 2016년 2월을 분석기간으로 설정하였다. 우리나라의 주요 항만도시를 대상으로 선정하였고 지역의 특성을 통제하기 위하여 패널 벡터오차수정모형의 그룹평균 추정량과 통합그룹평균 추정량을 사용하였다. 산업의 구성이 다양한 지역에서는 단기적으로 실업률의 변동의 폭이 작았지만, 제조업 생산지수의 변동성은 장기적인 경우에만 낮게 나타났다.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한안전경영과학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.305-308
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• 2009

According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.75-90
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• 2022

Purpose - This study aims to study the activation pattern of declining industries by applying the Gompertz growth model using available resources based on the theory of industrial life cycle, classifying declining industries among Korean manufacturing industries, and identifying resource input characteristics. Research design and methodology - This study was conducted by combining the Gompertz growth model that predicts the limit of output based on available resources under the industrial life cycle theory. Using Gompertz model, this study analyzed the life cycle of 39 Korean manufacturing industries from the perspective of domestic production, number of employees, and fixed assets Results - According to a life cycle analysis of 39 manufacturing industries in Korea, the computer, textile, and shoe industries were classified as declining industries. Among them, research on resource input characteristics on the shoe industry showed that domestic production and the number of employees decreased, while the proportion of domestic R&D personnel and the number of research departments gradually increased. Conclusion - Among the declining industries in Korea, the shoe industry is considered to revitalize the industry, that is, to extend the life of the declining industry by offshoring its production site and improving constitution with a "R&D center for global" support.

• 산업공학
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2006

In this paper, we explore the ubiquitous system that provides new business opportunities in the context of digital convergence. Exploiting the value network of the proposed ubiquitous system, we analyze strategic market drivers that define the speed and direction of the evolution path for ubiquitous industries. Motivated by the dynamic growth of ubiquitous industry, we design a set of ubiquitous business models that pave the way for firms to identify profitable business cases. In addition, we analyze the evolution path of the proposed business model such that the model can be implemented in the life-cycle of ubiquitous industry. Futhermore, we develop a modeling framework for selecting a suitable business model and for evaluating the performance of the selected business model.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.98-105
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• 2021

Using the frequency-based decomposition, I decompose the consumption growth to explain well-known patterns of stock returns in the Korean market. To be more specific, the consumption growth is decomposed by its half-life of shocks. The component over four years of half-life is called the business-cycle consumption component, and the components with half-lives under four years are short-run components. I compute the long-run and short-run components of stock excess returns as well and use component-by-component sensitivities to price stock portfolios. As a result, the business-cycle consumption risk with half-life of over four years is useful in explaining the cross-section of size-book-to-market portfolios and size-momentum portfolios in the Korean stock market. The short-run components have their own pricing abilities with mixed direction, so that the restricted one short-term factor model is rejected. The explanatory power with short- and long-run components is comparable to that of the Fama-French three-factor model. The components with one- to four-year half-lives are also helpful in explaining the returns. The results about the long-run components emphasize the importance of long-run component in consumption growth to explain the asset returns.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한안전경영과학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.455-475
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• 2009

1992년부터 2007년까지의 실증분석 결과에 따른 우리나라 부동산시장 가격과 관련된 시사점으로서는 첫째, 미국과 달리 경기 침체시나 경기 회복 시에 뚜렷한 차이점을 발견할 수는 없었다는 점이다. 둘째, 전국아파트 매매가격이 상승할 경우 통화당국에서 인플레이션율 목표관리에서 참고하여야 할 것임을 나타내고 있다. 참고로 1986년부 터 2002년까지 미국 대도시지역의 아파트와 상가, 사무실의 순가격상승율을 패널데이 타로 추정한 자료에 따르면, 이들은 거시경제변수와 단기이자율, 이자율간의 스프레드 차이, 인플레이션 등에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이들 자산가격상승률은 경기상황과 반비례관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 대부분 대출 및 신용과 관련되어 있기 때문이다. 그리고 이는 부동산시장에서 자산 간 수익률 격차를 크게 넓힐 수 있음을 지적하고 있다.