• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.149-158
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• 2009

쯔쯔가무시증은 가을철 유행성 출혈열 중 80%이상을 차지하는 질병으로 1주에서 2주의 잠복기를 가지는 것으로 알려져 있다. 우리는 그 잠복기간의 확률분포가 감마분포라 가정하고 후향연산식을 이용하여, ${\hat{\mu}}=309.92$$, ${\hat{\sigma}}=14.154$인 정규분포를 따르는 감염자 분포를 추정하였다. 감염자는 10월에 집중적으로 분포하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 감염자 분포형태는 발병자 수가 11월동안 급격하게 증가하는 것에 기인한다. 본 연구에서 추정한 감염확률에 의해 미래의 유병자수를 계산한 결과 최대 1200명이었고 이는 매년 증가하는 발병자 수의 경향을 반영하지 못한 한계가 있다. 또한 우리는 전염병 모형으로 잘 알려져 있고 전염발전 단계간의 상호작용을 고려하는 SIRS 모형을 적용해 보았다. 모수는 초기값으로부터 잘 근사되어 수렴하는 값으로 추정하였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.65-71
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• 2002

Objective : To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. Methods : Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods Results : The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were $708{\sim}1,426$ in Weibull distribution and $918{\sim}1,980$ in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was $16{\sim}25$ in Weibull distribution and $13{\sim}26$ in Gamma distribution. Conclusions : The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were $1.4{\sim}4.0$ times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea, further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.815-822
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• 2001

The aim of this study is to estimate the seroconversion date of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) infection for the HIV infected patients in Korea. Data are collected from two cohorts. The first cohort is a group of "seroprevalent" patients who were seropositive and AIDS-free at entry. The other is a group of "seroincident" patients who were initially seronegative but later converted to HIV antibody-positive. The seroconversion dates of the seroincident cohort are available while those of the seroprevalent cohort are not. Estimation of seroconversion date is important because it can be used to calculate the incubation period of AIDS which is defined as the elapsed time between the HIV infection and the development of AIDS. In this paper, a Weibull regression model Is fitted for the seroincident cohort using information about the elapsed time since seroconversion and the CD4$^{+}$ cell count.The seroconversion dates for the seroprevalent cohort are imputed on the basis of the marker of maturity of HIV infection percent of CD4$^{+}$cell count.unt.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.901-910
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• 2008

국내 삼일열 말라리아는 1990년대 중반부터 급격히 증가하여 2000년대에는 연평균 1600여명이 발병하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이미 알려진 잠복기 분포와 2001년부터 2006년까지의 발병자수 자료에 바탕하여 후향연산식을 활용하여 국내 삼일열 말라리아의 감염분포를 최소제곱법으로 추정하였다. 추정된 감염분포는 평균이 207일이고 표준편차가 30.7일인 정규분포를 이루었다. 이를 이용하여 연간 유병자수 분포를 산출한 결과, 말라리아의 하루 평균 유병자수는 628.8명 이었다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.777-789
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• 2020

COVID-19는 지난 2019년 12월부터 중국에서 발생하여 전세계적으로 확산된 대유행병이 되었다. 본 연구에서는 한국 질병 관리 본부에서 공개한 오픈 자료를 이용하였으며 시각화 기법을 통해 확진자의 남녀별 지역별 추세를 조사하였다. 또한 평균 바이러스 잠복기간을 추정하기 위해 감염원이 알려진 두 감염 그룹의 증상 발현 시점과 양성 확진 시점을 활용하였다. 하지만 양성 확진자 중 86%가 무증상으로 정확한 증상 발현시점을 알 수 없었다. 또한 주어진 자료에서는 감염시점도 알려져 있지 않아 감염시점과 증상 발현 시점차로 정의되는 잠복기간은 정확하게 측정하기가 어렵다. 이에 생존 분석의 한 기법인 구간 중도 절단을 적용하여 잠복기간의 분포를 추정하였다. 여러가지 모수 분포를 적용한 결과 최적의 분포하에서 평균 잠복 기간은 5.4일 (95% 신뢰구간 (4.70,6.01)일)이었다. 본 분석에서는 확진자 표본을 이용하여 치사율과 치유율을 구하기 위해 경쟁 위험 모형을 적용하였다. 분석 결과 50대이상의 치사 위험률은 50대미만 그룹의 30배이상이며 남성 양성 확진자가 사망할 확률이 더 높았다. 또한 여성이고 나이가 젊고 무증상일 때 치유될 가능성이 더 높았다.

• 전기의세계
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.167-171
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• 1981

In this paper, the mathematical model of influenza derived by the state space method induced a new model by using normal distribution curve of incubation period and researched the effect of vaccination. The important results are as follows. (1) A new model represents accurate spread curve. (2) The standard deviation period in Korea is about 1.5 degree. (3) The number of carries of influenza since put in practice to the vaccination 20% is reduced by average 9.8% degree, the period of spread increase 4 days degree. (4) The vaccination at early put in operation was far surperior and the period of spread grow longer more or less. (5) In the first stage of an attack of disease a case increase since reducing. (6) The number of carries at night is reduced by average 5.468% than in the daytime.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.213-222
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• 2017

최근 느타리버섯은 연중재배가 보편화되고 있으며, 재배량도 급격히 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 경북지역 느타리버섯 재배사에서 3년에 걸쳐 버섯파리 발생밀도를 조사한 결과 긴수염버섯파리와 버섯벼룩파리가 가장 우점하여 발생하였다. 일반적으로 균사배양기간에는 버섯파리 밀도가 모든 농가에서 낮았지만 1주기 수확후에는 급격히 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 하지만, 여름철에는 배양기간임에도 불구하고 많은 버섯파리가 관찰되었다. 이 현상은 연중재배체계의 보편화로 인해 계절적 선택재배와 달리 버섯파리가 재배사에서 안전하게 월동할 수 있는 서식처를 제공받았기 때문이다. 버섯파리의 생태는 버섯재배환경에 따라 달라질 수 있다. 계절적 선택재배농가와 연중재배농가의 버섯파리 발생패턴 차이를 통해 휴경이 버섯파리 발생밀도 감소에 중요한 역할을 한다는 것을 확인하였다. 버섯재배사 내부의 버섯파리 입체발생분포 조사를 통해 긴수염버섯파리보다 버섯벼룩파리가 빛에 더 민감한 종임을 확인하였다. 또한 2종의 입체적 발생양상은 매우 차이가 있는 것을 확인하였다.

• 방사선산업학회지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.197-202
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• 2011

In this study, an Ag-polyaniline-silica (Ag-PANI-silica) nanoparticle was evaluated as a radioisotope carrier. An Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was incubated in the $^{125}I$ solution for a duration of 24 hr to test its radioisotope absorptivity. During the incubation, radioactivity of the nanoparticle was measured at 3, 6, 12, and 24 hr. After a 24 hr incubation, $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was incubated in a fresh saline for a duration of 48 hr to check its stability. Additionally, the $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was injected to the ICR mouse to investigate its in-vivo distribution characteristics. The $^{125}I$ absorption yield of the Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was higher than 95% after a 6 hr incubation period in the $^{125}I$ solution. And $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica was stable for 48 hr at 80% yield at room temperature. The SPECT/CT image of a mouse that received $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica complex showed that the $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica complex was distributed in the lung, stomach and thyroid at 30 min post injection. From these results, the Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle has good radio-iodine carrying property and can be applicable for the purpose of diagnosis and therapy.

• 한국표면공학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.35-42
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• 2006

In this study, the fatigue properties on the cavitation damage of the flame quenched 8.8Al-bronze (8.8Al-4.5Ni-4.5Fe-Cu) as well as the current nuclear pump impeller materials (8.8Al-bronze, STS316 and SR50A) has been investigated using an ultrasonic vibratory cavitation test. For this the impact loads of cavitation bubbles generated by ultrasonic vibratory device quantitatively evaluated and simultaneously the cavitation erosion experiments have been carried out. The fatigue analysis on the cavitation damage of the materials has been made from the determined impact load distribution (e.g. impact load, bubble count) and erosion parameters (e.g. incubation period, MDPR). According to Miner's law, the determined exponents b of the F-N relation ($F^b$ N = Constant) at the incubation stage (N: the number of fracture cycle) were 5.62, 4.16, 6.25 and 8.1 for the 8.8Al-bronze, flame quenched one, STS316 and SR50A alloys. respectively. At the steady state period, the exponents b of the F-N' curve (N': the number of cycle required for $1{\mu}m$ increment of MDP) were determined as 6.32, 5, 7.14 and 7.76 for the 8.8Al-bronze, flame quenched one, STS316, and SR50A alloys, respectively.

• 한국동물위생학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.71-77
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• 2022

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal viral disease in pigs, with a short incubation period and causing immediate death. Few studies exist on the Asian epidemic ASF virus (ASFV) challenge in older pigs, including growing and fattening pigs and sows. We aimed to investigate clinical outcomes, pathomorphological lesions, and viral distribution in organs of 3-month-old growing pigs that were inoculated with the ASFV isolated in Vietnam. The clinical outcomes were recorded daily, and the dead or euthanized pigs immediately underwent necropsy. Viral loads were determined in 10 major organs using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The average incubation period in growing pigs was more delayed (5.2±0.9 dpi) than that in weaned pigs, and the clinical signs were milder in growing pigs than in weaned pigs. The digestive and respiratory clinical signs in growing pigs showed at the end period of life, but these were observed at an early stage of infection in weaned pigs. The pathomorphological features were severe and nonspecific with hemorrhagic lesions in various organs. The viral loads in organs from growing pigs were higher than those from piglets, and the number of viral copies was related to gross lesions in the tonsil and intestine. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, early clinical detection is important for preventing the spread of the virus. Our findings elucidated that the clinical signs and gross lesions in growing pigs differed from those in weaned pigs, which provide valuable information for diagnosis of pigs with suspected ASF infection.