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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2020.36.6.777

Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19  

Ki, Han Jeong (Department of statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
Kim, Jieun (Department of statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
Kim, Sohee (Department of statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
Park, Juwon (Department of statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
Lee, Joohaeng (Department of statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
Kim, Yang-Jin (Department of statistics, Sookmyung Women's University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.33, no.6, 2020 , pp. 777-789 More about this Journal
Abstract
COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.
Keywords
case fatality rate; cure rate; incubation time; interval censoring; pandemic; COVID19;
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