• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.1115-1124
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• 2022

The impact of climate change on water resources was evaluated for Chungju Dam and Soyang-gang Dam basins by constructing an integrated modeling framework consisting of a dam inflow prediction model based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a distributed hydrologic model, and an LSTM based dam outflow prediction model. Considering the uncertainty of future climate data, four models of CMIP6 GCM were used as input data of VIC model for future period (2021-2100). As a result of applying future climate data, the average inflow for period increased as the future progressed, and the inflow in the far future (2070-2100) increased by up to 22% compared to that of the observation period (1986-2020). The minimum value of dam discharge lasting 4~50 days was significantly lower than the observed value. This indicates that droughts may occur over a longer period than observed in the past, meaning that citizens of Seoul metropolitan areas may experience severe water shortages due to future droughts. In addition, compared to the near and middle futures, the change in water storage has occurred rapidly in the far future, suggesting that the difficulties of water resource management may increase.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5B
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• pp.525-533
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• 2008

Global circulation models (GCMs) have been used to study impact of climate change on water resources for hydrologic models as inputs. Recently, regional circulation models (RCMs) have been used widely for climate change study, but the RCMs have been rarely used in the climate change impacts on water resources in Korea. Therefore, this study is intended to use a set of climate scenarios derived by RegCM3 RCM ($27km{\times}27km$), which is operated by Korea Meteorological Administration. To begin with, the RCM precipitation data surrounding major rainfall stations are extracted to assess validation of the scenarios in terms of reproducing low frequency behavior. A comprehensive comparison between observation and precipitation scenario is performed through statistical analysis, wavelet transform analysis and EOF analysis. Overall analysis confirmed that the precipitation data driven by RegCM3 shows capabilities in simulating hydrological low frequency behavior and reproducing spatio-temporal patterns. However, it is found that spatio-temporal patterns are slightly biased and amplitudes (variances) from the RCMs precipitation tend to be lower than the observations. Therefore, a bias correction scheme to correct the systematic bias needs to be considered in case the RCMs are applied to water resources assessment under climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.51-60
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• 2019

The major purpose of this study is to construct an in-situ soil moisture verification network employing Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) sensors for Cosmic-ray soil moisture observation system operation as well as long-term field-scale soil moisture monitoring. The test bed of Cosmic-ray and FDR verification network system was established at the Sulma Catchment, in connection with the existing instrumentations for integrated data provision of various hydrologic variables. This test bed includes one Cosmic-ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) and ten FDR stations with four different measurement depths (10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm, and 40 cm) at each station, and has been operating since July 2018. Furthermore, to assess the reliability of the in-situ verification network, the volumetric water content data measured by FDR sensors were compared to those calculated through the core sampling method. The evaluation results of FDR sensors- measured soil moisture against sampling method during the study period indicated a reasonable agreement, with average values of $bias=-0.03m^3/m^3$ and RMSE $0.03m^3/m^3$, revealing that this FDR network is adequate to provide long-term reliable field-scale soil moisture monitoring at Sulmacheon basin. In addition, soil moisture time series observed at all FDR stations during the study period generally respond well to the rainfall events; and at some locations, the characteristics of rainfall water intercepted by canopy were also identified. The Temporal Stability Analysis (TSA) was performed for all FDR stations located within the CRNP footprint at each measurement depth to determine the representative locations for field-average soil moisture at different soil profiles of the verification network. The TSA results showed that superior performances were obtained at FDR 5 for 10 cm depth, FDR 8 for 20 cm depth, FDR2 for 30 cm depth, and FDR1 for 40 cm depth, respectively; demonstrating that those aforementioned stations can be regarded as temporal stable locations to represent field mean soil moisture measurements at their corresponding measurement depths. Although the limit on study duration has been presented, the analysis results of this study can provide useful knowledge on soil moisture variability and stability at the test bed, as well as supporting the utilization of the Cosmic-ray observation system for long-term field-scale soil moisture monitoring.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.5_1
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• pp.447-460
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• 2022

It is well known that satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) has been widely used for the observation of surface displacement owing to earthquakes, volcanoes, and subsidence very precisely. In wetlands where vegetation exists on the surface of the water, it is possible to create a water level change map with high spatial resolution over a wide area using the InSAR technique. Currently, a number of imaging radar satellites are in operation, and most of them support a ScanSAR mode observation to gather information over a large area at once. The Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) wetland, located in northern Colombia, is a vast wetland developed along the Caribbean coast. The CGSM wetlands face serious environmental threats from human activities such as reclamation for agricultural uses and residential purposes as well as natural causes such as sea level rise owing to climate change. Various restoration and protection plans have been conducted to conserve these invaluable environments in recognition of the ecological importance of the CGSM wetlands. Monitoring of water level changes in wetland is very important resources to understand the hydrologic characteristics and the in-situ water level gauge stations are usually utilized to measure the water level. Although it can provide very good temporal resolution of water level information, it is limited to fully understand flow pattern owing to its very coarse spatial resolution. In this study, we evaluate the L-band ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 ScanSAR mode to observe the water level change over the wide wetland area using the radar interferometric technique. In order to assess the quality of the interferometric product in the aspect of spatial resolution and coherence, we also utilized ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 stripmap high-resolution mode observations.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.551-563
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• 2016

According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.39-50
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• 2019

This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.107-119
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• 2020

This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.