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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.6.551

Prediction of future hydrologic variables of Asia using RCP scenario and global hydrology model  

Kim, Dawun (Dept. of Water Resources, Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan Univ.)
Kim, Daeun (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Eng., Hanyang Univ.)
Kang, Seok-koo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Eng., Hanyang Univ.)
Choi, Minha (Dept. of Water Resources, Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.49, no.6, 2016 , pp. 551-563 More about this Journal
Abstract
According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.
Keywords
Climate change; RCP Scenario; Common Land Model; Net radiation; Sensible and latent heat flux;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 9  (Citation Analysis)
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