• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.143-150
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• 2017

Previous methods to evaluate the risk of dropped objects rely on personnel experience of the engineer or operator without analyzed data. However analyzing historical statistic data is the best approach to find the safest operation route and to achieve more reasonable and reliable calculation results. By counting the failure frequency and fatal accident rate the risk can be quantified, and so controlled or mitigated with best economical risk reducing measures. This analysis gives a crane operator with useful information for selecting the best crane operation route, and a designer with an estimation of risk level for the dropped objects from a safety point of view.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제52권12호
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• pp.985-999
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• 2019

전 세계적으로 극심한 가뭄현상이 반복적으로 발생하고 있으며, 이러한 가뭄을 분석하기 위한 연구가 다수 진행되고 있다. 최근 코플라 함수를 활용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석에 대한 연구가 다수 진행된 바 있으나, 대부분 지점빈도해석에 국한되어 진행되었으며, 통계적으로 부족한 자료의 기간을 보완하기 위한 대안으로 지역빈도해석 개념을 도입한 연구는 미진한 실정이다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 기존의 베이지안 기법과 코플라 함수를 연계한 이변량 지역빈도해석 모형을 개발하였다. 최종적으로 이변량 코플라 가뭄 지역빈도해석 모형을 한강유역에 적용하여 2013-2015년에 발생한 가뭄 사상을 평가하였으며, 기존에 개발된 이변량 지점빈도해석 결과와 비교를 통해 모형의 해석결과에 대한 신뢰성을 확보하였다. 결과적으로 이변량 지점빈도해석에 비해 가뭄사상에 대한 결합재현기간의 불확실성 구간이 약 3배 가까이 감소하였으며, DIC 통계량 산정결과 약 15 이상 개선된 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 통해 제안된 베이지안 코플라 기반 이변량 가뭄 지역빈도해석 모형은 가뭄자료의 분포특성 및 자료간의 상관성을 효과적으로 재현하는데 유리할 뿐만 아니라, 지역적인 가뭄특성을 효과적으로 평가할 수 있는 장점을 확인할 수 있었다.

• International Journal of Ocean System Engineering
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.37-49
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• 2012

An analysis of potential flooding by storm surge and wave run-up and overtopping can be used to evaluate protection afforded by the existing storm protection system. The analysis procedure can also be used to evaluate various protection alternatives for providing typhoon flood protection. To determine risk, the storm surges for both historical and hypothetical are compiled with tide conditions to represent high, slack and low water for neap, spring and mid range tides to use with the statistical procedure known as the Empirical Simulations Technique (EST). The EST uses the historic and hypothetical events to generate a large population of life-cycle databases that are used to compute mean value maximum storm surge elevation frequency relationships. The frequency-of-occurrence relationship is determined for all relevant locations along the shoreline at appropriate locations to identify the effect using the Empirical Storm Simulation (EST). To assist with understanding the process, an example is presented for a study of storm surge analysis for Freeport, Texas. This location is in the Gulf of Mexico and is subject to hurricanes and other tropical storms that approach from the Atlantic Ocean.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.56-63
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• 1995

Two methods of the numerical method of CPQRA(Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis) and the manual method of IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) were used to estimate the individual risk and societal risk around the chemical plant. Where, the CPQRA is introduced to verify the theoritical background of the manual of international atomic energy agency. The Gaussian plume model which has a weather stability class D with velocity of 5m/s was applied to calculate dispersion of hazard material. Also, 8-point method was employed to the effects of accidents for wind distribution. Furthermore, historical record, FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) were used to estimate the probability or frequency of accidents. Eventually, the individual risk shows isorisk contour and the societal risk shows F-N curve around hazard facility, especially in chemical plants. Caulculated results, which both individual and societal risk, by using IAEA manual show simillar results to those of calculation by numerical method of CPQRA.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제53권5호
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• pp.897-919
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• 2015

In this study, the effects of ground shocks due to explosive loads on the dynamic response of historical masonry bridges are investigated by using the multi-point shock response spectrum method. With this purpose, different charge weights and distances from the charge center are considered for the analyses of a masonry bridge and depending on these parameters frequency-varying shock spectra are determined and applied to each support of the two-span masonry bridge. The net blast induced ground motion consists of air-induced and direct-induced ground motions. Acceleration time histories of blast induced ground motions are obtained depending on a deterministic shape function and a stationary process. Shock response spectrums determined from the ground shock time histories are simulated using BlastGM software. The results obtained from uniform and multi-point response spectrum analyses cases show that significant differences take place between the uniform and multi-point blast-induced ground motions.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2013

Drought risk assessment is usually performed qualitatively and quantitatively depending on the definition a drought. The meteorological drought indices have a limit of not being able to consider the hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, because it does not consider the water demand in paddies and water supply in reservoirs. Agricultural drought was defined as the reservoir storage shortage state that cannot satisfy water requirement from the paddy fields. The objectives of this study were to suggest improved agricultural drought risk assessment in order to evaluate of regional drought vulnerability and severity studied by using Reservoir Drought Index (RDI). The RDI is designed to simulate daily water balance between available water from agricultural reservoir and water requirement in paddies and is calculated with a frequency analysis of monthly water deficit based on water demand and water supply condition. The results indicated that RDI can be used to assess regional drought risk in agricultural perspective by comparing with the historical records of drought in 2012. It can be concluded that the RDI obtained good performance to reflect the historical drought events for both spatially and temporally. In addition, RDI is expected to contribute to determine the exact situation on the current drought condition for evaluating regional drought risk and to assist the effective drought-related decision making.

• 물과 미래
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.71-82
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• 1994

수자원 계획을 위하여 기본적으로 필요한 과거 강수량자료의 통계적 특성, 역년(calendar year)과 수문년(water year)의 연강수량 관계, 기간별 총강수량의 빈도 등을 장기간 과거 강수량을 이용하여 분석하였다. 또한 우리나라의 수자원 계획에 많이 이용해 왔던 1967-1968년 한발기간의 강수량을 분석하였다. 대상유역은 한강, 낙동강, 금강, 섬진강, 영산강 유역으로, 기상청 65개 우량관측소의 1905-1968년 한발기간의 강수량을 분석하였다. 대상유역은 한강, 낙동강, 금강, 섬진강, 영산강 유역으로, 기상청 65개 우량관측소의 1905-1991년 기간 자료를 이용하였으며, Thiessen 가중법으로 유역평균강수량을 산정하여 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과에서 우리나라의 연강 수량은 전체적으로 증가하는 경향이 있었으나 통계적 검정결과 그 변동량의 유의성이 없었다. 역년과 수문년의 연강수량 관계식을 제시하였으며, 두 기간의 연강수량은 거의 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 3, 6, 9 그리고 12개월 기간에 따른 총강수량의 연 최저치계열을 작성하였고, 2변수 대수정규분포를 이용하여 각 기간별 빈도강수량을 제시하였다. 1967-1968년 강우분석의 기준으로 볼 때, 댐 등에 의한 수자원 개발이 않된 자연하천 유역에서 건기(10-5월) 또는 우기(6-9월)의 총강수량이 과거 평균수량의 약 75%정도를 기록하면 한발를 초래하고, 약 60% 정도의 강수량이면 심한 한발을 초래한다고 할 수 있다.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.233-240
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• 2000

This paper presents fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform analysis based technique for the industrial hourly load forecasting fur the purpose of peak demand control. Firstly, one year of historical load data were sorted and clustered into several groups using fuzzy clustering and then wavelet transform is adopted using the Biorthogonal mother wavelet in order to forecast the peak load of one hour ahead. The 5-level decomposition of the daily industrial load curve is implemented to consider the weather sensitive component of loads effectively. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localization is adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and the components are reconstructed to predict the final loads through a five-scale synthesis technique. The outcome of the study clearly indicates that the proposed composite model of fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform approach can be used as an attractive and effective means for the industrial hourly peak load forecasting.

• 지구물리
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.91-98
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• 2000

한반도의 지진활동은 시공적으로 매우 불규칙한 판내부 지진활동의 전형적 특성을 보여준다. 한반도는 지질학적으로 구조 및 특성이 다른 여러 개의 지체구조구로 나누어지며 본 연구에서는 각 지체구조구의 지진활동의 특성의 차이를 규명하기 위하여 한반도의 역사 및 계기 지진자료를 이용하여 각 지체구조구의 지진활동변수를 추정하였다. 조선시대 이전의 불완전한 지진자료와 그 이후의 완전한 지진자료에 대한 통계적 분석은 지체구조구들 사이에 지진활동의 특성에 현저한 차이가 나지 않음을 보였다. 한반도 전체로서 진도-빈도의 b값은 대략 0.6 이며, 최대 지진은 MMI X 정도이다. 본 연구결과는 한반도의 확률론적 지진재해도 분석과 내진 공학에서 설계지진의 평가에 유용하게 이용될 수 있다.

• 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.82-89
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• 2010

The studies published up to now, related to the correlation between spatial structure and visitors' behavior in a museum are rather relatively lacking when it comes to the in-depth consideration for the effect of the actual exhibition environment. So the main purpose of this study is to define the correlation between the light environment and the visitors' behavior. Towards this end, this study uses 'space syntax' to quantify the spatial structure with 'integration', 'connectivity' and 'control value'. Meanwhile, 'tracking score' and 'tracking frequency' were selected as the scope among the indices of behavior's analysis. The results of this study are as follows; First, integration and correlation of tracking score and tracking frequency are lowest when it comes to the extra large historical museums where the difference of intensity of illumination by each convex space. Meanwhile, the most considerable effect is exerted by control value. Compared to tracking score, tracking frequency is closely related to 'syntactic variables'. Second, visitors do not take the short cut the dark exhibition space even when very dark exhibition spaces continue after passing through relatively bright space. Analysis of visitors' behavior by control value in the exhibition space composed of this type of intensity of illumination environment is not valid. Third, visitors move to relatively brighter transitional space compared to the exhibition space with low intensity of illumination when passing through dark exhibition continually. Meanwhile, when visitors pass through the exhibition space there is some difference intensity of illumination they move to relatively dark exhibition center among the subsequent exhibition spaces. Accordingly, when the composition of exhibition space that continues onto the environment of low intensity of illumination is inevitable, differentiating intensity of illumination appropriately would be effective in inducing visit to the subsequent exhibition space.