초록
This paper presents fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform analysis based technique for the industrial hourly load forecasting fur the purpose of peak demand control. Firstly, one year of historical load data were sorted and clustered into several groups using fuzzy clustering and then wavelet transform is adopted using the Biorthogonal mother wavelet in order to forecast the peak load of one hour ahead. The 5-level decomposition of the daily industrial load curve is implemented to consider the weather sensitive component of loads effectively. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localization is adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and the components are reconstructed to predict the final loads through a five-scale synthesis technique. The outcome of the study clearly indicates that the proposed composite model of fuzzy clustering and wavelet transform approach can be used as an attractive and effective means for the industrial hourly peak load forecasting.
