• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.167-176
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• 2006

현재 재건축사업은 추진 의사결정과 관련한 확정된 지표나 기준이 없이 막연한 수익성에 대한 기대를 토대로 시행되고 있으며, 사업시행과정 에서 직면하게 되는 제반 위험 에 대해 경험 적으로 대응하고 있는 실정이다. 또한 재건축조합이나 시공예정 회사들이 제공하는 관리처분계획에 포함된 수익성에 관한 정보는 결정론적 분석을 통한 단순한 예측에 불과하여 재건축을 시행하는 과정에서 결과가 수정되는 것이 일반적이다. 즉 수익성에 대한 예측이 재건축시행 과정상의 유동적인 상황에서 변경됨에 따라 예측결과에 대한 신뢰도는 근본적으로 내 외적인 한계를 갖고 있다. 본 연구는 재건축사업의 수익성에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 확률적으로 평가하여 수익과 위험을 동시에 분석하는 수익성예측모델을 개발하고, 사례연구를 통해 개발모델의 적합성을 검증하여 기존의 결정론적 접근방식이 갖는 한계를 극복하고자 한다.

• 한국학교수학회논문집
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.21-47
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 문화-역사적 활동이론에 기반하여, 표집 시뮬레이션을 활용한 비형식적 통계적 추리의 교수-학습 과정을 활동체계로 고려하고, 이러한 활동체계에서 발생하는 모순과 모순에 의한 변화를 확인하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 초등학생 5~6학년 20명을 대상으로 표집 시뮬레이션을 활용한 비형식적 통계적 추리에 대한 수업을 진행하고 활동체계를 분석하였다. 주제분석을 수행한 결과는 다음과 같다. 먼저, 규칙과 목표, 인공물과 목표 사이의 모순이 발생했으며, 이를 해결하는 과정에서 경험적 표집 분포의 시각화라는 새로운 인공물이 도입되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 규칙과 인공물, 규칙과 주체 사이의 모순이 발생했으며, 이를 해결하는 과정에서 표본 평균들의 평균을 구하는 알고리즘이 새로운 규칙으로 도입되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.26-35
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• 2007

The vehicle of urban transit is a complex system that consists of various electric, electronic, and mechanical equipments, and the maintenance cost of this complex and large-scale system generally occupies sixty percent of the LCC (Life Cycle Cost). For reasonable establishing of maintenance strategies, safety security and cost limitation must be considered at the same time. The concept of system reliability has been introduced and optimized as the key of reasonable maintenance strategies. For optimization, three preceding studies were accomplished; standardizing a maintenance classification, constructing RBD (Reliability Block Diagram) of VVVF (Variable Voltage Variable Frequency) urban transit, and developing a web based reliability evaluation system. Historical maintenance data in terms of reliability index can be derived from the web based reliability evaluation system. In this paper, we propose applying inverse problem analysis method and hybrid neuro-genetic algorithm to system reliability optimization for using historical maintenance data in database of web based system. Feed-forward multi-layer neural networks trained by back propagation are used to find out the relationship between several component reliability (input) and system reliability (output) of structural system. The inverse problem can be formulated by using neural network. One of the neural network training algorithms, the back propagation algorithm, can attain stable and quick convergence during training process. Genetic algorithm is used to find the minimum square error.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.150-183
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• 1999

Korea-Japan Fisheries Agreement concluded in 1965 made a contribution to the stable development of fisheries relationship for both countries until the year of 1980. From the time on thereafter a series of respectable fishery disputes occurred throughout the period of fisheries self-regulation in accordance with alteration of home and abroad conditions. And both countries marched into a cooperation era by enforcement of the new fisheries agreement from the 23 January 1999, because the Fisheries Agreement system of 1965 had many limitations to settle the fundamental fisheries problems. In this paper, the author carried out the legal interpretation, arrangement of historical facts and evaluation of actual results of the Korea-Japan Fisheries Agreement of 1965. The key contents of the Fisheries Agreement were the establishment of 12-nautical mile exclusive fishery zone and the joint-control fishery zone under the principles of maintenance of MSY for fishery resources, freedom of high seas and mutual cooperation. The legal foundation of the conclusion of the Fisheries Agreement were the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1952 and the four International Conventions on the Law of the Sea of 1958. During the 33 years, the fisheries power of Korea made a rapid stride, on the other hand that of Japan was almost stagnated. And in the meantime, there were very important development on the international law of the sea, for instant, the settlement of 12-nautical mile territorial sea regime and the establishment of 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone regime. Annual meetings of the Joint Fisheries Committee were not successful to fill the role for conservation of fishery resources. The Fisheries Self-Regulation Agreement concluded in 1980 was also insufficient to accept the new international regime on the law of the sea, for that reason it was terminated on 23 January 1999. But it is true that the Fisheries Agreement of 1965 made a contribution to normalization of fisheries relationship between both countries and fisheries development of Korea.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.211-218
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• 2011

한반도 고지도들은 많은 역사적 의미를 가지고 있으므로, 이것을 분석하여 역사적인 사실들을 추정할 수 있다. 하지만, 고지도는 국부적인 영역들을 결합하여 전체적인 영토를 표현하기 때문에, 현재의 지도와 직접적으로 비교하는 것이 어렵다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 평가할 대상 고지도를 기준 지도의 특성에 맞게 회전, 크기 변환 및 위치이동을 수행하여 쉽게 영역을 비교할 수 있도록 변환한다. 한반도 영역의 주축을 계산하여 기준 지도의 주축의 차이만큼 회전하고, 외곽 사각형의 비율을 이용하여 비대칭적으로 폭과 높이의 크기를 수정한다. 마지막으로 영역의 중심을 일치하여 두 영역을 겹치고, 두 가지 유사도 수식을 이용하여 고지도를 평가한다. 실험 결과에서 영역 비율과 휘어짐 각도차의 유사도가 현대에 가까워지면서 유사도가 높아지는 것을 볼 수 있다. 따라서 제안하는 기법은 한반도의 고지도를 사료로 분석하는데 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2017

PURPOSES : This study evaluates the reasonableness of the recommended amount of deicing chemicals based on historical data for snow removal. The result can be used to aid decision-making for the reservation of cost-effective de-icing chemicals. METHODS : First, the recommended amount of de-icing chemical to use and historical usage data were evaluated to identify specific usage characteristics for each region. Road maintenance length and snow-removal working days were analyzed over the past five winter seasons. Next, differences in the recommended amount of chemical to use and actual use were compared using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Last, the two types of data were analyzed using a chi-square test to verify if the two distributions of variation pattern are statistically significant. We found that there are significant differences between the data from each region during the past five winter seasons. RESULTS : The results showed that the equation for calculating the amount of de-icing chemical to use appears to be revised. CONCLUSIONS : The results imply that the equation for calculating the amount of de-icing chemical to apply as a national standard is very important when the public agency makes decisions related to snow-removal.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.67-75
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• 2012

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.51-61
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• 2014

In this paper, we deal with developing a cost estimation relationships (CER) for Korean maneuverable weapons systems using historical production cost. To develop the CER, we collected the historical data of the production cost of four tanks and five armored vehicles. We also analyzed the Required Operational Capability (ROC) of the weapons systems and chose cost drivers that can compare operational capabilities of the weapons systems We used Forward selection, Backward selection, Stepwise Regression and $R^2$ selection as the cost drivers which have the greatest influence with the dependent variables. And we used Principle Component Regression, Robust Regression and Weighted Regression to deal with multicollinearity and outlier among the data to develop a more appropriate CER. As a result, we were able to develop a production cost CER for Korean maneuverable weapons systems that have the lowest cost errors. Thus, this research is meaningful in terms of developing a CER based on Korean original cost data without foreign data and these methods will contribute to developing a Korean cost analysis program in the future.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제53권7호
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• pp.405-413
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• 2004

Traditionally, electrical power systems had the vertically-integrated industry structures based on the economics of scale. However power systems have been recently reformed to increase the energy efficiency of the power system. According to these trends, Korean power industry has been partially restructured, and the competitive generation market was opened in 2001. In competitive electric markets, correct demand data are one of the most important issue to maintain the flexible electric markets as well as the reliable power systems. However, the measuring load data can have the uncertainty because of mechanical trouble, communication jamming, and other things. To obtain the reliable load data, an efficient evaluation technique to adust the missing load data is needed. This paper analyzes the load pattern of historical real data and then the turned ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model, PCHIP(Piecewise Cubic Interporation) and Branch & Bound method are applied to seek the missing parameters. The proposed method is tested under a variety of conditions and tested with historical measured data from the Korea Energy Management Corporation (KEMCO).

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.495-504
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• 2009

As the Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is being studied, maintenance tasks can be performed effectively through the Risk Priority Number(RPN) evaluation about the components in the system. The RPN is usually calculated through arithmetical operations of three values, Severity, Occurrence, and Detection for each facility. This RPN provides information that includes risk level of the facility and the priority order of maintenance tasks for facility. However, if there is no sufficient historical failure data, it is difficult to calculate the RPN. In this case, historical failure data from other sources can be used and apply this data to korean railway system. In this paper, it is proposed that a new methodology to model the failure rate as a fuzzy membership function. This method is based on failure data from other sources by means of the fuzzy theory and the expert opinion system. And considering assessment tendency of each expert, distortions that happened when the failure rate of facilities is estimated were minimized. This results determine Occurrence values of facilities. Taking advantage of this result., the RPN can be calculated with Severity and Detection of facilities by using the fuzzy operation. The proposed method is applied the rail-way power substation.