Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Developing Model of Drought Climate Scenarios for Agricultural Drought Mitigation

농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용

  • 유승환 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 연수연구원) ;
  • 최진용 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 남원호 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
  • 김태곤 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
  • 고광돈 (한국농어촌공사 수자원관리처 수자원운영팀)
  • Received : 2011.12.29
  • Accepted : 2012.03.06
  • Published : 2012.03.31
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Abstract

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

Keywords

References

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