• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard rate function

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Effect Modification of Kidney Function on the Non-linear Association Between Serum Calcium Levels and Cardiovascular Mortality in Korean Adults

  • Jung-Ho Yang;Sun-Seog Kweon;Young-Hoon Lee;Seong-Woo Choi;So-Yeon Ryu;Hae-Sung Nam;Hye-Yeon Kim;Min-Ho Shin
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.282-290
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the potential interaction between kidney function and the non-linear association between serum calcium levels and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Methods: This study included 8927 participants enrolled in the Dong-gu Study. Albumin-corrected calcium levels were used and categorized into 6 percentile categories: <2.5th, 2.5-25.0th, 25.0-50.0th, 50.0-75.0th, 75.0-97.5th, and >97.5th. Restricted cubic spline analysis was used to examine the non-linear association between calcium levels and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD mortality according to serum calcium categories. All survival analyses were stratified by the estimated glomerular filtration rate. Results: Over a follow-up period of 11.9±2.8 years, 1757 participants died, of whom 219 died from CVD. A U-shaped association between serum calcium and CVD mortality was found, and the association was more evident in the low kidney function group. Compared to the 25.0-50.0th percentile group for serum calcium levels, both low and high serum calcium tended to be associated with CVD mortality (<2.5th: HR, 6.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 33.56; >97.5th: HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 0.76 to 8.66) in the low kidney function group. In the normal kidney function group, a similar association was found between serum calcium levels and CVD mortality (<2.5th: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.58 to 3.27; >97.5th: HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.70 to 3.93). Conclusions: We found a non-linear association between serum calcium levels and CVD mortality, suggesting that calcium dyshomeostasis may contribute to CVD mortality, and kidney function may modify the association.

The Development of Rail-Transport Operation Control based on Unsaturated Soil Mechanics Concept (불포화토이론을 이용한 강우시 열차운전규제기준 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Ki;Shin, Min-Ho;Kim, Soo-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.4 no.1 s.12
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2004
  • Infiltration of rainfall causes railway embankment to be unstable and may result in failure. Basic relationship between the rainfall and stability of railway embankment is defined to analyze the stability of embankment by rainfall. An experimental study for defining of infiltration rate of rainfall into slope is conducted in the lab. The results of Rainfall Infiltration show that rainfall Infiltration is not equal to infiltration as like reservoir because rate of rainfall infiltration is controlled by slope angle. Based on these results, boundary condition of rainfall is altered and various numerical analysis are performed. The variation of shear strength, the degree of saturation and pore-water pressure for railway slope during rainfall can be predicted and the safety factor of railway slope can be expressed as the function of rainfall amount, namely rainfall index. Therefore, it is judged that this rainfall index can be a good tool for the rail-transport operation control.

Reliability Estimation of Generalized Geometric Distribution

  • Abouammoh, A.M.;Alshangiti, A.M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2008
  • In this paper generalized version of the geometric distribution is introduced. This distribution can be considered as a two-parameter generalization of the discrete geometric distribution. The main statistical and reliability properties of this distribution are discussed. Two methods of estimation, namely maximum likelihood method and the method of moments are used to estimate the parameters of this distribution. Simulation is utilized to calculate these estimates and to study some of their properties. Also, asymptotic confidence limits are established for the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, the appropriateness of this new distribution for a set of real data, compared with the geometric distribution, is shown by using the likelihood ratio test and the Kolmogorove-Smirnove test.

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Optimal Replacement Model for Minimal Repairs (수리를 최소로 하는 최적교체모델)

  • Tae-Geun Park;Dong-Soon Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.79-84
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    • 2003
  • 종래의 연구들은 주로 시간이 경과함에 따라 수리비용과 고장시간 간격이 고정된 상태에서 최적교환시각(T)을 구하는 조건을 발견하는데 중점을 두었으나, 대부분의 시스템은 시간이 경과할수록 고장시간간격이 좁아지고 수리비용은 증가하는 것이 일반적이다. 본 논문에서는 위의 두 조건을 만족하는 보다 현실적인 모델을 구축하였으며, 또 일정시간 내에 2개의 시스템이 존재할 때 어느 조건 하에서 시스템이 확률적으로 우월한가를 분석하는 연구를 수행하였다. 즉, 시스템은 시간이 경과함에 따라 확률 P[N=k]로서 완전수리를, 1-P[N=k]로서 소수리를 행하는 모델을 고려하였다. 여기서 N은 연속된 완전수리 사이의 소수리의 수를 나타낸다. 또한 초기고장에 있어서 수리에 의해 새로운 시스템이 되는 확률이 높고, 고장횟수가 증가함에 따라 완전수리가 행해지는 확률이 낮아지는, 보다 현실에 가까운 모델을 구축하였다. 모델을 일반화하기 위해 수리비용은 확률변수로 가정하였다.

Fuzzy PID Control of Warranty Claims Time Series (보증 클레임 시계열 데이터를 위한 퍼지 PID 제어)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Joon;Moon, Kyung-Il;Cho, Sung-Eui
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2009
  • Objectifying claims filed during the warranty period, analyzing the current circumstances and improving on the problem in question is an activity worth doing that could reduce the likelihood of claims to occur, cut down on the costs, and enhance the corporate image of the manufacturer. Existing analyses of claims are confronted with two problems. First, you can't precisely assess the risks of claims involved by means of the value of claims per 100 products alone. Second, even in a normal state, the existing approach fails to capture the probabilistic conflicts that escape the upper control limit of claims, thus leading to wrong control activities. To solve the first problem, this paper proposed that a time series detection concept where the claim rate is monitored based on the date when problems are processed and a hazard function for expression of the claim rate be utilized. For the second problem, this paper designed a model whereby to define a normal state by making use of PID (Proportion, Integral, Differential) and infer by way of a fuzzy concept. This paper confirmed the validity and applicability of the proposed approach by applying methods suggested in the actual past data of warranty claims of a large-scaled automotive firm, unlike hypothetical simulation data, in order to apply them directly in industrial job sites, as well as making theoretical suggestions for analysis of claims.

The Comprehensive Proportional Hazards Model Incorporating Time-dependent Covariates for Water Pipes (상수관로에 대한 시간종속형 공변수를 포함한 포괄적 비례위험모형)

  • Park, Su-Wan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.445-455
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    • 2009
  • In this paper proportional hazards models for the first through seventh break of 150 mm cast iron pipes in a case study area are established. During the modeling process the assumption of the proportional hazards for covariates on the hazards is examined to include the time-dependent covariate terms in the models. As a result, the pipe material/joint type and the number of customers are modeled as time-dependent for the first failure, and for the second failure only the number of customers is modeled as time-dependent. From the analysis on the baseline hazard functions the failure hazards are found to be generally increasing for the first and second failure, while the hazards of the third break and beyond showed a form of a bath-tub. Furthermore, the changes in the baseline hazard rates according to the time and number of break reflect that the general condition of the pipes is deteriorating. The factors causing pipe break and their effects are analyzed based on the estimated regression coefficients and their hazard ratios, and the constructed models are verified using the deviance residuals of the models.

A Study on the Development Lightweight Aggregate using Recycled-Paint for Reduction in Freezing Ground (단열골재 개발을 통한 동토방지 기술개발에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jong-Wook;Back, Min-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2010
  • This study is progressed function ratio, it's trued taste by an experiment to present data for human work light weight aggregate development that use clink ash progressed liquid limit, small success limit, wear loss in quantity, sand equivalent, sieve cutting examination. 80:20's match of function rain examination is 1.4, and that use rubble aggregate as recyeled-panit lightweight aggregate's capacity ratio increases by 1.0 increase of function rain many. Also, examination multiplied delicate flavor gradually according to increase of the mixing rate, and absorption coefficient increased. This is judged by phenomenon that appear by special quality upper recycled-panit of polystyrene bid and porosity's increase between lightweight aggregate. It is case that use aggregate of wear loss in quantity is 13.5 in sand equivalent and a wear loss in quantity experiment and although case that mix 20% increases by 14.4, this phenomenon by weak tissue of lightweight aggergate be judged. When it's as a these experiment, the statue prevention floor of a street improvement specifications is prescribing so that satisfy by sand equivalent 20, CBR 10. This is showed result that this satisfies in quality standard all in match experiment ago that see.

Risk Factors for Displacement of the Abomasum in Dairy Cows and its Relationship with Postpartum Disorders, Milk Yield, and Reproductive Performance

  • Kang, Hyun-Gu;Jeong, Jae-Kwan;Kim, Ill-Hwa
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.68-73
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    • 2019
  • We determined the risk factors for displacement of the abomasum (DA), and the relationships between DA and postpartum disorders, milk yield, and reproductive performance in dairy cows. Initially, we identified the risk factors for DA using data regarding cow health and calving season from 2,208 lactations. Then, we compared the incidence of postpartum disorders, culling, death, and reproductive performance between cows with DA and their control herdmates (each n = 57). In addition, serum metabolites concentrations and milk yield were compared between cows with DA and controls (each n = 33). Ketosis (odds ratio [OR] = 9.27, p < 0.0001) and twin calves (p = 0.06) increased the risk of DA. Cows with a parity of three had a higher risk (OR = 5.23, p < 0.01) of DA than primiparous cows. Serum total cholesterol concentration was lower but non-esterified fatty acid, ${\beta}-hydroxybutyrate$, and alanine aminotransferase concentrations were higher after calving in cows with DA than in controls (p < 0.05). The removal rate from the herd by 2 months after calving was higher (p < 0.05) but milk yield 1 and 2 months after calving (p < 0.01) and the rate of first insemination by 150 days postpartum were lower (hazard ratio = 0.49, p < 0.05) in cows with DA than controls. In conclusion, higher parity, twin calves, and ketosis are risk factors for DA in dairy cows, which is associated with a higher removal rate from the herd, lower milk yield, a longer calving to first insemination interval, and unfavorable levels of metabolites related to energy and liver function.

GAMMA-SPECTROMETRY IN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF NUCLEAR POWER

  • Cechak, Tomas;Gerndt, Josef;Kluson, Jaroslav;Musilek, Ladislav;Thinova, Lenka
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.203-206
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    • 2001
  • The mathematical processing (unfolding) of pulse height spectra from a scintillation detector helps to calculate the photon fluence rate energy distribution in a measured photon field. The data processing is based on the knowledge of detection system response function and directional dependence respectively. The experimental results of the photon fields measurements in the vicinity of the spent fuel temporary storage and inside the storage hall are presented. The containers Castor 440 are used for temporary storing of the burnt up fuel assemblies in the Czech nuclear power plant Dukovany. A set of periodical measurements was performed in order to get basic information on the time dependence of the photon fields spatial distributions and spectral characteristics in the temporary storage hall and its vicinity. The photon fields were measured by the scintillation system. The obtained photon fields spatial distributions and spectral characteristics present the information on the radiation hazard in the storage.

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Development of the Prediction Method for Hospital Bankruptcy using a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model(HGIM) (HGLM을 적용한 병원 도산 예측방법의 개발)

  • Noh, Maeng-Seok;Chang, Hye-Jung;Lee, Young-Jo
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.22-36
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    • 2001
  • The hospital bankruptcy rate is increasing, therefore it is very important to predict the bankruptcy using the existing hospital management information. The hospital bankruptcy is often measured in year intervals, called grouped duration data, not by the continuous time elapsed to the bankruptcy. This study introduces a hierarchical generalized linear model(HGLM) for analysis of hospital bankruptcy data. The hazard function for each hospital may be influenced by unobservable latent variables, and these unknown variables are usually termed as random effects or frailties which explain correlations among repeated measures of the same hospital and describe individual heterogeneities of hospitals. Practically, the data of twenty bankrupt and sixty profitable hospitals were collected for five years, and were fitted to HGLM. The results were compared with those of the logit model. While the logit model resulted only in the effects of explanatory variables on the bankruptcy status at specific period, the HGLM showed variables with significant effects over all observed years. It is concluded that the HGLM with a fixed ratio and a period of total asset turnrounds was justified, and could find significant within and between hospital variations.

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