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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.6.445

The Comprehensive Proportional Hazards Model Incorporating Time-dependent Covariates for Water Pipes  

Park, Su-Wan (Dept. of Civil and Env. Eng., Pusan National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.42, no.6, 2009 , pp. 445-455 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this paper proportional hazards models for the first through seventh break of 150 mm cast iron pipes in a case study area are established. During the modeling process the assumption of the proportional hazards for covariates on the hazards is examined to include the time-dependent covariate terms in the models. As a result, the pipe material/joint type and the number of customers are modeled as time-dependent for the first failure, and for the second failure only the number of customers is modeled as time-dependent. From the analysis on the baseline hazard functions the failure hazards are found to be generally increasing for the first and second failure, while the hazards of the third break and beyond showed a form of a bath-tub. Furthermore, the changes in the baseline hazard rates according to the time and number of break reflect that the general condition of the pipes is deteriorating. The factors causing pipe break and their effects are analyzed based on the estimated regression coefficients and their hazard ratios, and the constructed models are verified using the deviance residuals of the models.
Keywords
cast iron pipe; hazard rate; pipe break; proportional hazards model; survival function; time-dependent covariate;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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