• Food Science and Biotechnology
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.279-293
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• 2009

Quantitative risk assessments are related to implementing hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) by its potential involvement in identifying critical control points (CCPs), validating critical limits at a CCP, enabling rational designs of new processes, and products to meet required level of safety, and evaluating processing operations for verification procedures. The quantitative risk assessment is becoming a standard research tool which provides useful predictions and analyses on microbial risks and, thus, a valuable aid in implementing a HACCP system. This paper provides a review of microbial modeling in quantitative risk assessments, which can be applied to HACCP systems.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제16권28호
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• pp.145-155
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• 1993

This paper studies the estimation of hazard parameters, which have a close relation with product reliability characteristics in reliability test. Among the many kinds of estimation methods, hazard Probability Paper(HPP) is commonly used. The HPP is very convenient, but it has a great disadvantage in estimation W by plotting method It is very difficult to get the same results even if one use the same data several times. A computer program for the regression method is used for the parameter estimation to reduce these errors. Especially, the computer graphic program was written in GW-BASIC 3.22 language and a couple of running examples for user's reference appears in the appendix part.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.623-632
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• 2014

We shall consider the estimation for the parameter and the right tail probability in a general exponential distribution. We also shall consider the estimation of the reliability P(X < Y ) and the skewness trends of the density function of the ratio X=(X+Y) for two independent general exponential variables each having different shape parameters and known scale parameter. We then shall consider the estimation of the failure rate average and the hazard function for a general exponential variable having the density function with the unknown shape and known scale parameters, and for a bivariate density induced by the general exponential density.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

최저 안전율 또는 최대 파괴확률을 기반으로 하는 기존의 사면안정해석에 대하여, 지반물성과 해석모델이 갖는 고유 불확실성을 최소화하고, 사면안정해석에서 다양한 안정해석모델과 그에 따른 파괴형상을 반영할 수 있도록, 다중 파괴모드를 고려한 사면의 신뢰성해석기법을 제안하였다. 파괴확률의 산정에는 체계 신뢰성해석분야에서 최근 도입된 선형계획법에 의한 최적화를 이용하였다. 이를 통하여 여러 가지 해석모델을 신뢰성 기반으로 동시에 고려하여 해석할 수 있다. 선형계획법에 의한 다중 파괴 모드를 고려한 파괴확률 산정기법을 이용하여 단순 사면의 경사도 결정을 위한 최적 설계를 검토하였다. 그 결과, 동시 파괴확률을 이용하면, 대상으로 하는 사면안정해석모델과 파괴형상 및 파괴확률을 복합적으로 고려할 수 있기 때문에 개선된 안전성을 확보할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.31-37
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• 2011

다상 재료는 상(phase) 분포의 차이에 따라 재료의 특성이 다르기 때문에 상 분포 상태의 특성을 이해하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 확률 분포 함수를 사용하여 미세구조의 상 분포 상태를 나타내고, 이를 사용한 미세구조 재구성 방법을 이용해서 특정 2상 미세구조와 통계적으로 유사한 상 분포를 가진 미세구조를 생성하여 기존의 미세구조와 재구성된 미세구조의 특성을 비교하였다. 그리고 서로 다른 임의의 상 분포를 가진 미세구조들에 유한요소해석 기법을 적용하여 서로 다른 하중 방향에 대한 미세구조의 역학적 거동을 분석하였다. 이를 통해, 미세구조 재구성 방법을 사용하여, 제한된 정보만을 이용해서 통계적으로 유사한 특성을 나타내는 미세구조를 모델링 할 수 있음을 확인하였고, 확률 분포 함수와 미세구조의 역학적 거동이 방향에 따라 동일함을 통하여 재생성 된 재료의 등방성을 확인하였다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.265-271
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• 2015

The tsunami hazard analysis is performed for testing the application of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to nuclear power plant sites in the Korean Peninsula. Tsunami hazard analysis is based on the seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic method is adopted for considering the uncertainties caused by insufficient information of tsunamigenic fault sources. Logic tree approach is used. Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site is selected for this study. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan (East Sea) are used for this study because those are well known fault sources in the East Sea and had several records of tsunami hazards. We have performed numerical simulations of tsunami propagation for those fault sources in the previous study. Therefore we use the wave parameters obtained from the previous study. We follow the method of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) suggested by the atomic energy society of Japan (AESJ). Annual exceedance probabilities for wave height level are calculated for the site by using the information about the recurrence interval, the magnitude range, the wave parameters, the truncation of lognormal distribution of wave height, and the deviation based on the difference between simulation and record. Effects of each parameters on tsunami hazard are tested by the sensitivity analysis, which shows that the recurrence interval and the deviation dominantly affects the annual exceedance probability and the wave heigh level, respectively.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.581-591
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• 2023

North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.68.2-68.2
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• 2009

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.607-617
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• 2019

Global warming and climate change are increasing the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes and thus increasing the risk effects of typhoon and hurricane hazards on nuclear power plants (NPPs). To reflect these changes, a new NPP should be designed to endure design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an exceedance frequency of $10^{-7}/yr$. However, the short typhoon and hurricane observation records and uncertainties included in the inputs for an estimation cause significant uncertainty in the estimated wind speeds for return periods of longer than 100,000 years. A logic-tree framework is introduced to handle the epistemic uncertainty when estimating wind speeds. Three key parameters of a typhoon wind field model, i.e., the central pressure difference, pressure profile parameter, and radius to maximum wind, are used for constructing logic tree branches. The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic uncertainty included in the wind intensity models and provides reasonably acceptable wind speeds.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제56권1호
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data. Methods: The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild's conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates. Results: Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche. Conclusions: Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.