• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard function

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A Study for the Fire Hazard Evaluation through the Fire Simulation of an Apartment Fire Accident (아파트 화재 사례 전산모사를 통한 화재위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Heung-Kyun;Choi, Young-Sang;Choo, Hong-Lok
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2010
  • In this study, Fire Hazards were evaluated through computer simulation using FDS program for an apartment fire accident. The results of fire simulation showed that the maximum heat release rate in the case of no sprinklers activation was 7,700 kW which was about 16 times of that in the case of sprinklers activation, 497 kW and there was a very high fire hazard due to the backdraft phenomenon when the door of fire room was forced to open. Regarding the hazard time of fire room temperature and detection time of detectors, available evacuation time was 32.5 seconds of minimum to 53.5 seconds of maximum. In the case of sprinklers activation, fire hazard in the apartment was showed to be very low due to the fire control by the spray cooling of sprinklers. This study shows that what a important function for fire safety is the activations of fire sprinkler system and emergency alarm system and what a large loss can cause if these systems don’t activate in fire accidents.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Extradosed Bridges with Lead Rubber Bearings (LRB 면진장치가 설치된 엑스트라도즈드교의 지진위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Doo Kie;Seo, Hyeong Yeol;Yi, Jin-Hak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2006
  • This study presents the seismic risk assesment for an extradosed bridge with seismic isolators of lead rubber bearings(LRB). First, the seismic vulnerability of a structure and then the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated using earthquake data set and seismic hazard map in Korea, and then the seismic risk of the structure is assessed. The nonlinear seismic analyses are carried out to consider plastic hinges of bridge columns and nonlinear characteristics of soil foundation. The ductility demand is adopted to describe the nonlinear behavior of a column, and the moment-curvature curve of a column is assumed to be bilinear hysterestic. The fragility curves are represented as a log-normal distribution function for column damage, movement of superstructure, and cable yielding. And seismic hazard is estimated using the available seismic hazard maps. The results show that the effectiveness of the seismic isolators for the columns is more noticeable than those for cables and girders, in seismic isolated extradosed bridges under earthquakes.

LCC Optimization for Reinforced Concrete Structures under Seismic Hazards

  • Park, Soon-Kyu
    • KCI Concrete Journal
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2001
  • A simple expected damage cost model is developed and a systematic approach to evaluate the economic effects of seismic hazards to reinforced concrete structures is presented. An expected damage cost function during a specific lifetime is modeled by a Poisson's process with uniform continuous cash flow assumption. It is possible that the proposed method can decouple the damage cost effect from random earthquake events. Thus, expected damage cost function can be formulated as a combination of three independent terms; a present worth factor of Poisson's process, a damage cost interpolation function and a mean occurrence rate of earthquake intensity. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by a comparative study of LCC evaluations with the previous study.

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Performance Comparison of Cumulative Incidence Estimators in the Presence of Competing Risks (경쟁위험 하에서의 누적발생함수 추정량 성능 비교)

  • Kim, Dong-Uk;Ahn, Chi-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.357-371
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    • 2007
  • For the time-to-failure data with competing risks, cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) are commonly estimated using nonparametric methods. If the cases of events due to the cause of primary interest are infrequent relative to other cause of failure, nonparametric methods may result in rather imprecise estimates for CIF. In such cases, Bryant et al. (2004) suggested to model the cause-specific hazard of primary interest parametrically, while accounting for the other modes of failure using nonparametric estimator. We represented the semiparametric cumulative incidence estimator and extended to the model of Weibull and log-normal distribution. We also conducted simulations to access the performance of the semiparametric cumulative incidence estimators and to investigate the impact of model misspecification in log-normal cause-specific hazard model.

Parameter Estimation of the Storage Function Model: 2. Applicability of the Universal Model (저류함수법의 매개변수 추정: 2. 범용모형의 적용성)

  • Choi, Jong-Nam;Ahn, Won-Shik;Kim, Hung-Soo;Park, Min-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2010
  • We verified the applicability of the developed universal model for the parameter estimation through the rainfall-runoff analysis at 16 watersheds. The existing parameter estimation equations derived from the restricted conditions sometimes, gave the meaningless results which cannot reflect the watershed characteristics and so have not widely used in the ungaged watershed. The values estimated from the developed universal model showed which are sensitive to variations of watershed characteristics. Wider applicability of SFM in ungaged watersheds is expected with the used of effective rainfall from CN method and the universal model.

Optimal Sensor Placement for Structural Parameter Estimation Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 구조계수추정 목적의 최적 계측점 선정)

  • Bahng, Eun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2010
  • In the health monitoring of civil engineering structures, the optimal sensor placement has a major influence on the quality of the results. This paper considers the problem of locating sensors with the aim of maximizing the data information so that structural parameters or damage of structures can be assessed. An proposed technique using a genetic algorithm is introduced to find the optimal placement of sensors. The sensitivity on modal vectors by structural parameters and the orthogonality of modal vectors have been taken as the fitness function of the genetic algorithm. A simple tower structure is used for example analyses to investigate the feasibility and applicability of the proposed approach. The example analyses show the way how the modal sensitivity and the modal orthogonality in the fitness function have influence on the optimal sensor placement. It is shown that the present method using the proposed fitness function can provide the reliable results.

Making a Hazard Map of Road Slope Using a GIS and Logistic Regression Model (GIS와 Logistic 회귀모형을 이용한 접도사면 재해위험도 작성)

  • Kang, In-Joon;Kang, Ho-Yun;Jang, Yong-Gu;Kwak, Young-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.1 s.35
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2006
  • Recently, slope failures are happen to natural disastrous when they occur in mountainous areas adjoining highways in Korea. The accidents associated with slope failures have increased due to rapid urbanization of mountainous areas. Therefore, Regular maintenance is essential for all slope and needs maintenance of road safety as well as road function. In this study, we take priority of making a database of risk factor of the failure of a slope before assesment and analysis. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a standard of Slope Management Information Sheet(SMIS) like as Hazard Map. The next research, we suggest to pre-estimated model of a road slope using Logistic Regression Model.

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Development of Subsidence Hazard Estimation Method Based on the Depth of Gangway (갱도의 심도 정보만을 고려한 지반침하위험도 평가법 개발)

  • Jung, Yong-Bok;Song, Won-Kyong;Kang, Sang-Soo
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.272-279
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    • 2008
  • This paper describes the development of a simple and quantitative subsidence hazard estimation method appropriate to Korean coal mines using gangway depth information only. In spite of simpleness of estimation method, this new method gives good results close to those obtained using influence function method when applying to a virtual rectangular excavation model and to a closed mine where actual subsidence occurred. Therefore, this method can be effectively applied to the identification of zones liable to subsidence over closed coal mine in Korea where the shape of extraction is very complex and usually unknown.

A new generalization of exponentiated Frechet distribution

  • Diab, L.S.;Elbatal, I.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.65-84
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    • 2016
  • Motivated by the recent work of Cordeiro and Castro (2011), we study the Kumaraswamy exponentiated Frechet distribution (KEF). We derive some mathematical properties of the (KEF) including moment generating function, moments, quantile function and incomplete moment. We provide explicit expressions for the density function of the order statistics and their moments. In addition, the method of maximum likelihood and least squares and weighted least squares estimators are discuss for estimating the model parameters. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance and flexibility of the new distribution.