• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard analysis

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Application of Fuzzy Information Representation Using Frequency Ratio and Non-parametric Density Estimation to Multi-source Spatial Data Fusion for Landslide Hazard Mapping

  • Park No-Wook;Chi Kwang-Hoon;Kwon Byung-Doo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2005
  • Fuzzy information representation of multi-source spatial data is applied to landslide hazard mapping. Information representation based on frequency ratio and non-parametric density estimation is used to construct fuzzy membership functions. Of particular interest is the representation of continuous data for preventing loss of information. The non-parametric density estimation method applied here is a Parzen window estimation that can directly use continuous data without any categorization procedure. The effect of the new continuous data representation method on the final integrated result is evaluated by a validation procedure. To illustrate the proposed scheme, a case study from Jangheung, Korea for landslide hazard mapping is presented. Analysis of the results indicates that the proposed methodology considerably improves prediction capabilities, as compared with the case in traditional continuous data representation.

Further Results on Piecewise Constant Hazard Functions in Aalen's Additive Risk Model

  • Uhm, Dai-Ho;Jun, Sung-Hae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.403-413
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    • 2012
  • The modifications suggested in Uhm et al. (2011) are studied using a partly parametric version of Aalen's additive risk model. A follow-up time period is partitioned into intervals, and hazard functions are estimated as a piecewise constant in each interval. A maximum likelihood estimator by iteratively reweighted least squares and variance estimates are suggested based on the model as well as evaluated by simulations using mean square error and a coverage probability, respectively. In conclusion the modifications are needed when there are a small number of uncensored deaths in an interval to estimate the piecewise constant hazard function.

The Use of Generalized Gamma-Polynomial Approximation for Hazard Functions

  • Ha, Hyung-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1345-1353
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    • 2009
  • We introduce a simple methodology, so-called generalized gamma-polynomial approximation, based on moment-matching technique to approximate survival and hazard functions in the context of parametric survival analysis. We use the generalized gamma-polynomial approximation to approximate the density and distribution functions of convolutions and finite mixtures of random variables, from which the approximated survival and hazard functions are obtained. This technique provides very accurate approximation to the target functions, in addition to their being computationally efficient and easy to implement. In addition, the generalized gamma-polynomial approximations are very stable in middle range of the target distributions, whereas saddlepoint approximations are often unstable in a neighborhood of the mean.

Microbiological Hazard Evaluation of the Product Flow of Korean Rice Cakes (떡류 제조 시 미생물학적 위해도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Myung-Sook;Lee, Hyo-Soon
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.22 no.6 s.96
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    • pp.747-755
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    • 2006
  • This study evaluated the microbiological hazard of three Korean rice cake products (Gaepidduk, Injulmi, Julpyon). Microorganisms testing was conducted in various phases of the product flow of Korean rice cakes preparation, food equipment, environment work and cook employees at small scale. The results showed the presence of redbean paste, soybean powder and oil at levels as high as $10^5$ CFU/g on the hazard analysis of rice cakes ingredients. High levels of coliforms were detected in Julpyon products after 24 hr. and on the cooker's aprons. Clinical bacteria were not detected in any of the rice cakes. We concluded that there is a strong requirement for education related to personal hygiene for the production of hygienic rice cake products and for the publics health.

Development of Natural Hazard Risk Map using Insured Claim Payouts and Its Application (보험 손실액을 활용한 자연재해 위험 지도 개발 및 적용방안 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Myong;Park, Young Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.257-258
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    • 2015
  • The amount of damages caused by natural hazards is consistently growing due to the unusual weather and extreme events. At the same time, property damage by natural hazards is rapidly increasing as well. Hence, we need systematic anti-disaster activities and consulting that can react to such a situation. To address these needs, we investigated and analyzed insured claim payouts from natural hazards by administrative area, and calculate the risk index utilizing GIS. According to the index, this map is identifying the areas of greatest natural hazard risk. The ranking of natural disaster vulnerability based on the risk index, and risk grades were divided into five based on the ranking. This map integrates the natural hazard losses to assist in comprehensive and effective loss prevention activities using analysis of regional loss claims from natural hazards. Moreover, this map can be as utilized as loss mitigation and prevention activities to verify the distribution of exposure and hazards.

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Length-biased Rayleigh distribution: reliability analysis, estimation of the parameter, and applications

  • Kayid, M.;Alshingiti, Arwa M.;Aldossary, H.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2013
  • In this article, a new model based on the Rayleigh distribution is introduced. This model is useful and practical in physics, reliability, and life testing. The statistical and reliability properties of this model are presented, including moments, the hazard rate, the reversed hazard rate, and mean residual life functions, among others. In addition, it is shown that the distributions of the new model are ordered regarding the strongest likelihood ratio ordering. Four estimating methods, namely, method of moment, maximum likelihood method, Bayes estimation, and uniformly minimum variance unbiased, are used to estimate the parameters of this model. Simulation is used to calculate the estimates and to study their properties. Finally, the appropriateness of this model for real data sets is shown by using the chi-square goodness of fit test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.

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Bezier curve smoothing of cumulative hazard function estimators

  • Cha, Yongseb;Kim, Choongrak
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.189-201
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    • 2016
  • In survival analysis, the Nelson-Aalen estimator and Peterson estimator are often used to estimate a cumulative hazard function in randomly right censored data. In this paper, we suggested the smoothing version of the cumulative hazard function estimators using a Bezier curve. We compare them with the existing estimators including a kernel smooth version of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and the Peterson estimator in the sense of mean integrated square error to show through numerical studies that the proposed estimators are better than existing ones. Further, we applied our method to the Cox regression where covariates are used as predictors and suggested a survival function estimation at a given covariate.

Estimating causal effect of multi-valued treatment from observational survival data

  • Kim, Bongseong;Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.675-688
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    • 2020
  • In survival analysis of observational data, the inverse probability weighting method and the Cox proportional hazards model are widely used when estimating the causal effects of multiple-valued treatment. In this paper, the two kinds of weights have been examined in the inverse probability weighting method. We explain the reason why the stabilized weight is more appropriate when an inverse probability weighting method using the generalized propensity score is applied. We also emphasize that a marginal hazard ratio and the conditional hazard ratio should be distinguished when defining the hazard ratio as a treatment effect under the Cox proportional hazards model. A simulation study based on real data is conducted to provide concrete numerical evidence.

Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation in Yanbian Region

  • Liu, Xiuxuan;Quan, Hechun;Moon, Hongduk;Jin, Guangri
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2017
  • In order to evaluate landslide susceptibility in Yanbian region, this study analyzed 7 factors related to landslide occurrence, such as soil, geology, land use, slope, slope aspect, fault and river by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and calculated the weights of these 7 hazard-induced factors, determined the internal weights and the relative weights between various factors. According to these weights, combining the Remote Sensing technology (RS) with Geographic Information System technology (GIS), the selected area was evaluated by using GIS raster data analysis function, then landslide susceptibility chart was mapped out. The comprehensive analysis of AHP and GIS showed that there has unstable area with the potential risk of sliding in the research area. The result of landslide susceptibility agrees well with the historical landslides, which proves the accuracy of adopted methods and hazard-induced factors.

A Study on Safety Assessment of CTC/EI Interface (열차집중제어장치와 전자연동장치 인터페이스의 안전성평가에 관한 연구)

  • SHIN Seok-kyun;LEE Key-seo
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers B
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.309-316
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    • 2005
  • In this paper we analyzed a dangerous failure and a safety requirement based on HIA (Hazard Identification and Analysis) of an interface model between CTC (Centralized Traffic Control) system and El (Interlocking) system, and assigned SU (Safety Integrity Level) by way of an risk estimation of the interface, which employed PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) for the interface of the track control system, being managed as separated system between the centralized traffic control system and the interlocking system, An estimation which satisfies a safety reference of the international standard has been achieved through a quantification of the system failure rate and the dangerous failure rate of the interface model.