• Title/Summary/Keyword: generalized model

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Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.

An analysis of excavation cycle time for Korean tunnels and the comparison with the Standard of Construction Estimate (국내터널 굴착 사이클타임에 대한 분석결과와 표준품셈과의 비교)

  • Kim, Yangkyun;Kim, Hyung-Mok;Lee, Sean S.
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.137-153
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    • 2019
  • Estimating tunnel construction time and costs are the most fundamental part of a tunnel project planning, which has been generally assessed on a deterministic basis until now. In this paper, excavation cycle time was investigated for two road tunnels and one subway tunnel, and the results were compared with the Standard of Construction Estimate (SE), which is made for the estimation of construction time and cost in a design stage. The results show that the difference in cycle time between SE and actual cycle time is 50%, 7% and 31% respectively for the three tunnels, which means that SE does not reflect practical operation time. The major reasons of the difference are skilled level of tunneling workers, the change of operation sequences for more effective operations, much more complicated working atmosphere in a tunnel than the assumption of SE etc. Finally, even though the results can not be generalized since investigated tunnels are only 3, but it is thought that SE needs to be upgraded into the model able to consider quite common situations through additional tunnel investigation and studies in the future.

Does the Obesity Paradox Exist in Cognitive Function?: Evidence from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 2006-2016 (인지기능에 비만 역설은 존재하는가?: 고령화연구패널자료(2006-2016)를 이용하여)

  • Kang, Kyung Sik;Lee, Yongjae;Park, Sohee;Kimm, Heejin;Chung, Woojin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2020
  • Background: There have been many studies on the associations between body mass index (BMI) and cognitive function. However, no study has ever compared the associations across the methods of categorizing BMI. In this study, we aimed to fill the gap in the previous studies and examine whether the obesity paradox is valid in the risk of cognitive function. Methods: Of the 10,254 people aged 45 and older from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing from 2006 to 2016, 8,970 people were finalized as the study population. The dependent variable was whether a person has a normal cognitive function or not, and the independent variables of interest were BMI categorized by the World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office (WHO-WPRO) method, the WHO method, and a 10-group method. Covariates included sociodemographic factors, health behavior factors, and health status factors. A generalized linear mixed model analysis with a logit link was used. Results: In the adjusted model with all covariates, first, in the case of BMI categories of the WHO-WPRO method, underweight (odds ratio [OR], 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.17), overweight (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.35-1.36), and obese (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.33-1.34) groups were more likely to have a normal cognitive function than a normal-weight group. Next, in the case of BMI categories of the WHO method, compared to a normal-weight group, underweight (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) and overweight (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.06-1.07) groups were more likely to have a normal cognitive function; however, obese (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.61-0.63) group was less likely to have it. Lastly, in the case of the 10-group method, as BMI increased, the likelihood to have a normal cognitive function changed like a wave, reaching a global top at group-7 (26.5 kg/㎡ ≤ BMI <28.0 kg/㎡). Conclusion: The associations between BMI and cognitive function differed according to how BMI was categorized among people aged 45 and older in Korea, which suggests that cognitive function may be positively associated with BMI in some categories of BMI but negatively in its other categories. Health policies to reduce cognitive impairment need to consider this association between BMI and cognitive function.

LRM's Characterics and Applications Plan Through Comparing with FRBR (FRBR과 비교를 통한 LRM의 특징 및 적용방안)

  • Lee, Mihwa
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.355-375
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    • 2022
  • This study is to grasp LRM's feature and applications plan to reflect LRM to cataloging related standards and individual system through comparing and analyzing LRM with the FR model in terms of entities, attributes, and relationships. The application plan is suggested as follows. First, the entity can be extended by defining sub-entities of each entity in the standards and the individual system in order to reflect LRM, even though entities such as families, groups, identifiers, authorized access points, concepts, objects, events, agency and rules have been deleted in LRM. Second, the attribute should be subdivided in the standards and the individual system in order to apply LRM, though many attributes have been changed to relationships for linked data and decreased in LRM. In particular, more specific and detailed property names in the standards and the individual system should be clearly presented, and the vocabulary encoding scheme corresponding to each property should be also developed, since properties with similar functions or repetition in various entities, and material specific properties are generalized and integrated into comprehensive property names. Third, the relationship should be extended through newly declaring the refinement or subtype of the relationship and considering a multi-level relationship, since the relationship itself is general and abstract under increasing the number of relationships in comparing to the property. This study will be practically utilized in cataloging related standards and individual system for applying LRM.

Predicting the Retention of University Freshmen Using Peer Relationships (대학 신입생들의 교우관계를 통한 학업유지 예측)

  • Lee, Yeonju;Choi, Sungwon
    • Korean Journal of School Psychology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.31-48
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study was to determine whether the retention of university freshmen could be predicted using their peer relationships in a specific department. In this study, retention was defined as a student staying enrolled in their university for a certain period of time. Social relationships are formed through interaction between people, so both students' self-perceptions and others' perceptions of them must be accounted for, so we used a social network analysis that did so. We examined social networks visualizations that allowed for a rich interpretation of numerical information. Participants in this study were freshmen who enrolled in an undergraduate program in 2017, 2018, or 2019. We used the name generator method to determine how quantitative friendship network variables predicted the academic retention up to the first semester of 2020. Cox proportional hazard model analysis showed that the weighted indegree centrality with intimacy positively predicted retention. The results of this study can be used to identify and conduct interventions for students who may be likely to disenroll. However all of the students did not participate in the department, it was difficult to examine their entire peer networks. Thus, this study's results cannot be generalized because the participants are students of a specific major, so further research is needed to produce more generalizable results.

Network Analysis of Depressive and Anxiety Symptom in Young Adult of an Urban City (일 도시 청년 인구의 불안 우울 공존 증상 네트워크 분석)

  • Jong wan Park;Hyochul Lee;Jae Eun Hong;Seok Bum Lee;Jung Jae Lee;Kyoung Min Kim;Hyu Seok Jeong;Dohyun Kim
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.118-124
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    • 2023
  • Objectives : Depressive disorder and anxiety disorder frequently co-occur, even at sub-threshold level. This study aims to identify network structure of co-morbid depression and anxiety at symptom level in nonclinical population and to reveal the central symptoms and bridge symptoms of the co-morbidity. Methods : This study was based on 2022 Asan Youth Mental Health Screening. Patient health questionnaire (PHQ-9) and Generalized anxiety disorder scale (GAD-7) were used to assess depressive and anxiety symptoms of 810 young adult participants from community sample. Network structure of co-morbid depressive and anxiety symptoms was estimated by Isingfit model. Results : Depressed mood, Restlessness and Nervousness were the most central symptoms in the network. Bridge symptoms between anxiety and depression were Restlessness and Irritability. Conclusions : This study revealed key central symptoms and bridge symptoms of co-morbid depression and anxiety in nonclinical population and provided potential insight for treatment targets to reduce co-morbidity.

Development and Validation of MRI-Based Radiomics Models for Diagnosing Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

  • Kyung Min Kim;Heewon Hwang;Beomseok Sohn;Kisung Park;Kyunghwa Han;Sung Soo Ahn;Wonwoo Lee;Min Kyung Chu;Kyoung Heo;Seung-Koo Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.1281-1289
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Radiomic modeling using multiple regions of interest in MRI of the brain to diagnose juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to develop and validate radiomics prediction models to distinguish patients with JME from healthy controls (HCs), and to evaluate the feasibility of a radiomics approach using MRI for diagnosing JME. Materials and Methods: A total of 97 JME patients (25.6 ± 8.5 years; female, 45.5%) and 32 HCs (28.9 ± 11.4 years; female, 50.0%) were randomly split (7:3 ratio) into a training (n = 90) and a test set (n = 39) group. Radiomic features were extracted from 22 regions of interest in the brain using the T1-weighted MRI based on clinical evidence. Predictive models were trained using seven modeling methods, including a light gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree, with radiomics features in the training set. The performance of the models was validated and compared to the test set. The model with the highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was chosen, and important features in the model were identified. Results: The seven tested radiomics models, including light gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting machine, and decision tree, showed AUROC values of 0.817, 0.807, 0.783, 0.779, 0.767, 0.762, and 0.672, respectively. The light gradient boosting machine with the highest AUROC, albeit without statistically significant differences from the other models in pairwise comparisons, had accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores of 0.795, 0.818, 0.931, and 0.871, respectively. Radiomic features, including the putamen and ventral diencephalon, were ranked as the most important for suggesting JME. Conclusion: Radiomic models using MRI were able to differentiate JME from HCs.

A Spatial-Temporal Correlation Analysis of Housing Prices in Busan Using SpVAR and GSTAR (SpVAR(공간적 벡터자기회귀모델)과 GSTAR(일반화 시공간자기회귀모델)를 이용한 부산지역 주택가격의 시공간적 상관성 분석)

  • Kwon, Youngwoo;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.245-256
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    • 2024
  • Since 2020, quantitative easing and easy money policies have been implemented for the purpose of economic stimulus. As a result, real estate prices have skyrocketed. In this study, the relationship between sales and rental prices by housing type during the period of soaring real estate prices in Busan was analyzed spatio-temporally. Based on the actual transaction price data, housing type, transaction type, and monthly data of district units were constructed. Among the spatio-temporal analysis models, the SpVAR, which is used to understand the temporal and spatial effects of variables, and the GSTAR, which is used to understand the effects of each region on those variables, were used. As a result, the sales price of apartment had positive effect on the sale price of apartment, row house, and detached house in the surrounding area, including the target area. On the other hand, it was confirmed that demand was converted to apartment rental due to an increase in apartment sales prices, and the sale price fell again over time. The spatio-temporal spillover effect of apartments was positive, but the positive effect of row house and detached house were concentrated in the original downtown area.

Estimation of Residual Useful Life and Tracking of Real-time Damage Paths of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Wiener Process (추계학적 위너 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 실시간 피해경로 추적과 잔류수명 추정)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2020
  • A stochastic probabilistic model for harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwater has been formulated by using the generalized Wiener process considering the nonlinearity of damage drift and its nonlinear uncertainty, by which the damage path with real-time can be tracked, the residual useful lifetime at some age can also be analyzed properly. The formulated stochastic model can easily calculate the probability of failure with the passage of time through the probability density function of cumulative damage. In particular, the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime of the existing harbor structures can be derived, which can take into account the current age, its present damage state and the future damage process to be occurred. By using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method together, the involved parameters in the stochastic model can be estimated. In the calibration of the stochastic model presented in this paper, the present results are very well similar with the results of MCS about tracking of the damage paths as well as evaluating of the density functions of the cumulative damage and the residual useful lifetime. MTTF and MRL are also evaluated exactly. Meanwhile, the stochastic probabilistic model has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater. The related parameters can be estimated by using the experimental data of the cumulative damages of armor units measured as a function of time. The theoretical results about the probability density function of cumulative damage and the probability of failure are very well agreed with MCS results such that the density functions of the cumulative damage tend to move to rightward and the amounts of its uncertainty are increased as the elapsed time goes on. Thus, the probabilities of failure with the elapsed time are also increased sharply. Finally, the behaviors of residual useful lifetime have been investigated with the elapsed age. It is concluded for rubble-mound breakwaters that the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime tends to have a longer tail in the right side rather than the left side because of the gradual increases of cumulative damage of armor units. Therefore, its MRLs are sharply decreased after some age. In this paper, the special attentions are paid to the relationship of MTTF and MRL and the elapsed age of the existing structure. In spite of that the sum of the elapsed age and MRL must be equal to MTTF deterministically, the large difference has been shown as the elapsed age is increased which is due to the uncertainty of cumulative damage to be occurred in the future.

An Estimation of Price Elasticities of Import Demand and Export Supply Functions Derived from an Integrated Production Model (생산모형(生産模型)을 이용(利用)한 수출(輸出)·수입함수(輸入函數)의 가격탄성치(價格彈性値) 추정(推定))

  • Lee, Hong-gue
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.47-69
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    • 1990
  • Using an aggregator model, we look into the possibilities for substitution between Korea's exports, imports, domestic sales and domestic inputs (particularly labor), and substitution between disaggregated export and import components. Our approach heavily draws on an economy-wide GNP function that is similar to Samuelson's, modeling trade functions as derived from an integrated production system. Under the condition of homotheticity and weak separability, the GNP function would facilitate consistent aggregation that retains certain properties of the production structure. It would also be useful for a two-stage optimization process that enables us to obtain not only the net output price elasticities of the first-level aggregator functions, but also those of the second-level individual components of exports and imports. For the implementation of the model, we apply the Symmetric Generalized McFadden (SGM) function developed by Diewert and Wales to both stages of estimation. The first stage of the estimation procedure is to estimate the unit quantity equations of the second-level exports and imports that comprise four components each. The parameter estimates obtained in the first stage are utilized in the derivation of instrumental variables for the aggregate export and import prices being employed in the upper model. In the second stage, the net output supply equations derived from the GNP function are used in the estimation of the price elasticities of the first-level variables: exports, imports, domestic sales and labor. With these estimates in hand, we can come up with various elasticities of both the net output supply functions and the individual components of exports and imports. At the aggregate level (first-level), exports appear to be substitutable with domestic sales, while labor is complementary with imports. An increase in the price of exports would reduce the amount of the domestic sales supply, and a decrease in the wage rate would boost the demand for imports. On the other hand, labor and imports are complementary with exports and domestic sales in the input-output structure. At the disaggregate level (second-level), the price elasticities of the export and import components obtained indicate that both substitution and complement possibilities exist between them. Although these elasticities are interesting in their own right, they would be more usefully applied as inputs to the computational general equilibrium model.

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