• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.11-20
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• 2000

This paper presents a formula that relates the optimal exercise boundaries of American call and put options on futures contract. It is shown that the geometric mean of the optimal exercise boundaries for call and put written on the same futures contract with the same exercise price is equal to the exercise price which is time invariant. The paper also investigates the properties of American calls and puts on futures contract.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.199-212
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• 1991

주식옵션(stock options)에 대한 연구에 비교하여 상품 및 퓨처 옵션(commodity & futures options)에 대한 연구는 선진국에서도 지금 한참 연구를 하고 있는 단계에 있다. 우리나라에서도 이 분야에 대한 이론을 바탕으로 하는 제도를 곧 도입하려는 준비를 하고 있다. 본 연구는 블랙의 '블랙의 컴모디티 옵션의 가격모형(Black commodity option pricing model)'을 이용하여 재무성 장기채권의 퓨처의 균형가격을 예측하는데 있다. 이 블랙모형의 적용가능성을 검증해 본 것이다. 실제퓨처가격(observed futures prices)과는 달리 재무성 장기채권 퓨처 옵션에서의 묵시적 퓨처가격(futures prices implicit)은 시장효율성(market efficiencies)의 전제하에 성립되거나, 아니면 옵션가격모형을 사용하여서는 아니되거나 둘 중의 하나이거나 둘 다 섞이거나 일 것이다. 본 실증적인 연구, 즉 묵시적인 표준편차(implied standard deviations)를 사이멀테니어스(simultaneously)하게 계산한 묵시적인 퓨처가격(implied futures prices)을 사용한 실증적인 연구는 옵션모델에 의하여 퓨처가격을 계산하는 데에 문제가 있음을 발견하였다. 그 이유는 옵션가격결정모형을 이용하여 계산한 재무성 장기채권의 퓨쳐가격은 재무성 장기채권의 미래가격변동의 방향을 제시하는 지표로써 사용할 수 없기 때문일 것이다. 우리나라에서도 이 분야에 대한 이론과 제도를 곧 도입하는 입장에서 선행되는 문헌이 될 것이다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.167-198
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.235-261
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• 2003

본 연구의 목적은 우리나라에서 주가지수선물이 처음 거래된 1996년 5월 이래 선물의 거래활동과 현물주식시장 변동성의 관계를 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 본 연구는 선물시장 활동 정도를 보여주는 거래량 및 미결제약정수량과 현물 주식시장의 변동성 사이의 동시적 관계 및 인과관계를 규명하고, 추가적으로 주가지수선물의 만기에 따른 현물의 변동성 변화를 살펴보았다. 선물의 거래량과 미결제약정수량은 과거의 자료로부터 예측가능한 부분과 예측불가능한 부분으로 나누어 측정하였고, 현물의 변동성은 GJR-GARCH 모형으로 추정하였다. 선물거래활동과 현물의 변동성의 동시대적 관계 검증 결과, 예측가능 거래량은 예측불가능 거래활동의 일중 변동성과 매우 강한 양의 관계를 가지고 있음을 볼 수 있었다. 반면 선물 거래활동은 대체적으로 현물 변동성과 약한 음의 관계에 있거나 유의하지 않았다. 인과관계 검증 결과, 선물의 거래량이 일중 현물의 변동성을 강하게 선도하고 있는 반면, 선물의 거래량은 밤중 현물의 변동성에 의하여 강하게 선도되고 있음을 알 수 있다. 이는 하루 중 거래가 진행되고 있는 동안에는 선물의 거래량 충격에 의하여 현물의 변동성이 선도되고 밤중에는 현물 변동성에 의하여 선물의 거래량 충격이 선도됨을 의미하는 것이다. 이들 사이의 충격반응 검증결과 어느 한 변수에 대한 다른 변수의 반응은 모두 양의 관계를 가지고 있다. 이를 종합해 보면 거래가 이루어지고 있는 동안에는 선물의 거래가 현물의 변동성을 증가시키고 있었고, 거래가 이루어지지 않는 밤중 사이의 현물의 변동성은 선물의 거래를 증가시키는 관계에 있음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 선물의 만기 부근에 현물의 변동성이 높아진다는 증거를 찾기는 어려웠다.

• 경영과학
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.49-61
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• 2014

We investigate the hedging effectiveness of incorporating single-stock futures into the corresponding stocks. Investing in only stocks frequently causes too much risk when market volatility suddenly rises. We found that single-stock futures help reduce the variance and risk levels of the corresponding stocks invested. We use daily prices of Korean stocks and their corresponding futures for the time period from December 2009 to August 2013 to test the hedging effect. We also use system trading technique that uses automatic trading program which also has several simulation functions. Moving average strategy, Stochastic's strategy, Larry William's %R strategy have been considered for hedging strategy of the futures. Hedging effectiveness of each strategy was analyzed by percent reduction in the variance between the hedged and the unhedged variance. The results clearly showed that examined hedging strategies reduce price volatility risk compared to unhedged portfolio.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.3-18
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between KOSPI200 Futures and KTB Futures in inter market and intra market. We are focusing on which market would be lead. The empirical results have indicated that there are no lead or lag effect between KOSPI200 Futures and KTB Futures market. But some positive correlation appeared, we used to know negative correlation between stock and bond market, which is a new finding. As a conclusion, the market still have an efficiency with co-movement.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.76-84
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• 2024

This study constructed a VAR model with cotton futures and spot price data from April 30, 2009 to November 16, 2022, for empirical analysis utilizing the Granger causality test to analyze the dynamic relationship between cotton futures and spot market prices in China. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis showed that the cotton spot prices at flowering have a causal relationship with each other; in terms of mutual influence and impact, futures prices are higher than spot prices. Finally, it proposed countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of establishing a standardized cotton spot market, improving the laws and regulations of the cotton futures market and trading system, and optimizing the structure of investment subjects.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제5권6호
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• pp.580-587
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• 2004

본 논문의 목적은 주가지수 선물시장에서 선물의 가격과 거래량간 관계를 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 선물수익률과 거래량 변화율을 이용하여 거래량과 선물가격간의 관계를 분석하였다. 거래량 변화율과 선물수익률간의 관계를 검증하기에 앞서 각각의 시계열에 대한 안정성 검증을 실시한 결과, 거래량 변화율과 선물수익률은 모두 안정적인 시계열인 것으로 나타났다. VAR모형을 이용한 선물수익률과 거래량 변화율간 관계에 대한 분석결과, 기간별 분석결과에서는 전체기간에서 주가지수 선물수익률이 거래량 변화율을 -3차에서 강하게 선도하는 것으로 나타났으며, 선물시장의 추세에 따른 분석결과는 선물가격의 상승시에는 거래량 변화율이 선물수익률을 선도하는 반면, 선물가격이 하락하는 경우는 선물수익률이 거래량을 선도하는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한, 상승기에 거래량변화율이 선물수익률을 선도하는 정도보다는 하락기에 선물수익률이 거래량 변화율을 선도하는 계수의 크기가 크게 나타나고 있다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.73-91
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to examine the hedging effectiveness of shrimp futures market. Hedging effectiveness is measured by OLS model based on rolling windows. Analysis data are obtained from Kansai Commodities Exchange in Osaka and are weekly data of frozen shrimp futures and cash prices in the time period from July 9, 2003, to May 9, 2007. The empirical results are summarized as follows:First, the correlation coefficients between the nearby futures price changes and the cash(16/20) price changes are very low and have range from 0.141 to 0.208 values. Second, the minimum variance hedge ratios($\hat{\beta}$) are all statistically different from 0 at the 5% level and range from 0.0477 to 0.5039 values excluding Indian shrimps(26/30). Ex post hedging effectiveness, as measured by the coefficient of determination, $R^2$, is relatively very low and range from a low of 0.4% for west-south Indian shrimps(26/30) to a high 4.3% for Vietnamese shrimps(16/20). Third, ex ante hedging effectiveness, as measured by out-of-sample hedging period, is also very low and range from a low of -4.4% for west-south Indian shrimps(21/25) to a high of 3.4% for Vietnamese shrimps(16/20). This indicates that the shrimp futures market doesn't behave as risk management instrument of shrimp spot.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.