The Hedging Effectiveness of Shrimp Futures Contract and Futures Contract Design

The objective of this study is to examine the hedging effectiveness of shrimp futures market. Hedging effectiveness is measured by OLS model based on rolling windows. Analysis data are obtained from Kansai Commodities Exchange in Osaka and are weekly data of frozen shrimp futures and cash prices in the time period from July 9, 2003, to May 9, 2007. The empirical results are summarized as follows:First, the correlation coefficients between the nearby futures price changes and the cash(16/20) price changes are very low and have range from 0.141 to 0.208 values. Second, the minimum variance hedge ratios($\hat{\beta}$) are all statistically different from 0 at the 5% level and range from 0.0477 to 0.5039 values excluding Indian shrimps(26/30). Ex post hedging effectiveness, as measured by the coefficient of determination, $R^2$, is relatively very low and range from a low of 0.4% for west-south Indian shrimps(26/30) to a high 4.3% for Vietnamese shrimps(16/20). Third, ex ante hedging effectiveness, as measured by out-of-sample hedging period, is also very low and range from a low of -4.4% for west-south Indian shrimps(21/25) to a high of 3.4% for Vietnamese shrimps(16/20). This indicates that the shrimp futures market doesn't behave as risk management instrument of shrimp spot.

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