• Title/Summary/Keyword: future-forecasting

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A Study on the Application Methods of Big Data in the Technology Commercialization Process (기술사업화 프로세스 단계별 빅데이터 활용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chang-Gul;Roh, Hyun-Suk;Choi, Yun-Jeong;Kim, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Jae Kwang
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.73-99
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    • 2014
  • Recently, big data have been studied ways to use in various fields. Big data refers to huge amounts of data that could not be addressed by conventional methods. Big data has attracted attention for improving accuracy of decision-making, forecasting in the near future, and creation of new business. In this study, it is an object to develop the utilization plan for big data in the field of technology commercialization. For this reason, we conducted study like case studies, literature review and focus group interview. We have derived the big data utilization plan based on this in the technology commercialization field. It, the data utilization plan, combines with the technology commercialization process of Jolly and it has five sub processes (Imagining, Incubating, Demonstrating, Promoting, Sustaining). In this paper, there is a significance that has emphasized the possibility for big data utilization in the technology commercialization. However, there is a limit to the general interpretation for our study. And we hope to contribute to the expansion of areas of technology commercialization information analysis through this research.

Assessment of Precipitation Characteristics and Synoptic Pattern Associated with Typhoon Affecting the South Korea (우리나라 내습태풍 유형에 따른 강우특성 및 종관기후학적 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Park, Kun-Chul;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.463-477
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    • 2015
  • The recent unusual climate and extreme weather events have frequently given unexpected disaster and damages, facing difficulties in the management of water resources. In particular, climate change could result in intensified typhoons, and this would be the worst case scenario that can happen. The primary objective of this study is to identify the patterns of typhoon-induced precipitation and the associated synoptic pattern. This study focused on analyzing precipitation patterns over the South Korea using historic records as opposed to a specified season or duration, and further investigates the potential connection with heavy rainfall to synoptic patterns. In this study, we used the best track data provided by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of Japan for 40 years from 1973 to 2012. The patterns of the typhoon-induced precipitation were categorized into four groups according to a given typhoon track information, and then the associated synoptic climatology patterns were further investigated. The results demonstrate that the typhoon-induced precipitation patterns could be grouped and potentially simulated according to the identified synoptic patterns. Our future work will focus on developing a short-term forecasting model of typhoon-induced precipitation considering the identified climate patterns as inputs.

The Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Scarcity of the Han River Basin in South Korea Using High Resolution RCM Data (고해상도 RCM 자료를 이용한 기후변화가 한강유역의 수자원(이수적 측면)에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Byung-Sik;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.295-308
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    • 2010
  • As an attempt to explore the impact of droughts which may be worse by the climate change, the change in the water balance of the Han-river basin is analyzed. To accomplish it, we suggest a procedure consisting of three successive sub-procedures: daily rainfall generation for 70 years by the RegCM3 RCM ($27{\times}27\;km$) with the A2 scenario, daily discharge simulations by SLURP using the generated daily rainfall data, and monthly water balance analysis by K-WEAP (Korean Water Evaluation and Planning System) based on the SLURP simulation. Since significant uncertainty is involved in forecasting the future water consumption and water yields, we assumed three water consumption scenarios and fifty water yields scenarios. Three water consumption scenarios are, namely, "LOW", "MEDIUM", and "HIGH" according to the expected amount of water consumption. The fifty daily discharges are obtained from the SLURP simulations during the drought period. Finally, water balance analysis is performed by K-WEAP based on 150 combinations from three water consumption scenarios and the fifty daily discharges. Analysis of water scarcity in small basins of the Han River basin showed concentration of water scarcity in some small basins. It was also found that water scarcity would increase in all small basins of the Han River basin.

A Study on Developing the Business Index of Electrical Construction Business (전기공사업 경기지수 개발에 관한 연구 - 전기공사업 경기종합지수(ECI) 및 기업경기실사지수(EBSI)를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Houng-Hee;Kim, Mi-Ri
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2014
  • Electrical Construction industry uses Construction industry's statistical data for business outlook. Because there are not electrical construction business view's statistical data. It has own unique characteristic which is different from construction industry. So it must have a electrical construction Business Index. This study was focused on developing the business index of electrical construction business. Electrical construction business index consists of electrical construction composite Index(ECI) and the electrical construction business survey index(EBSI). This study experimentally analyzes the business views of electrical construction industry in 2/4 quarter of 2014. The leading Index of ECI indicates -0.4% compared with 1/4 quarter of 2014, coincidence index also shows that electrical construction industry's business cycle is in an economic downturn. EBSI is 83.5 in 2/4 quarter of 2014, down from 95.2 in 1/4 quarter of 2014. It means that electrical construction company has a pessimistic prediction. As a result we know that the Business Index of Electrical Construction Business shows similar results. It is expected to make contribution for electrical contractors to establish management strategies and prepare responses to economic changes by providing information about economic trends of electrical construction business and forecasting future economy.

A Two-Phase Stock Trading System based on Pattern Matching and Automatic Rule Induction (패턴 매칭과 자동 규칙 생성에 기반한 2단계 주식 트레이딩 시스템)

  • Lee, Jong-Woo;Kim, Yu-Seop;Kim, Sung-Dong;Lee, Jae-Won;Chae, Jin-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2003
  • In the context of a dynamic trading environment, the ultimate goal of the financial forecasting system is to optimize a specific trading objective. This paper proposes a two-phase (extraction and filtering) stock trading system that aims at maximizing the rates of returns. Extraction of stocks is performed by searching specific time-series patterns described by a combination of values of technical indicators. In the filtering phase, several rules are applied to the extracted sets of stocks to select stocks to be actually traded. The filtering rules are automatically induced from past data. From a large database of daily stock prices, the values of technical indicators are calculated. They are used to make the extraction patterns, and the distributions of the discretization intervals of the values are calculated for both positive and negative data sets. We assumed that the values in the intervals of distinctive distribution may contribute to the prediction of future trend of stocks, so the rules for filtering stocks are automatically induced from the data in those intervals. We show the rates of returns when using our trading system outperform the market average. These results mean rule induction method using distributional differences is useful.

Determination of Unit Hydrograph for the Hydrological Modelling of Long-term Run-off in the Major River Systems in Korea (장기유출의 수문적 모형개발을 위한 주요 수계별 단위도 유도)

  • 엄병현;박근수
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.52-65
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    • 1984
  • In general precise estimation of hourly of daily distribution of the long-term run-off should be very important in a design of source of irrigation. However, there have not been a satisfying method for forecasting of stationar'y long-term run-off in Korea. Solving this problem, this study introduces unit-hydrograph method frequently used in short-term run-off analysis into the long-term run-off analysis, of which model basin was selected to be Sumgin-river catchment area. In the estimation of effective rainfall, conventional method neglects the Soil moisture condition of catchment area, but in this study, the initial discharge (qb) occurred just before rising phase of the hydrograph was selected as the index of a basin soil moisture condition and then introduced as 3rd variable in the analysis of the reationship between cumulative rainfall and cumulative loss of rainfall, which built a new type of separation method of effective rainfall. In next step, in order to normalize significant potential error included in hydrological data, especially in vast catchment area, Snyder's correlation method was applied. A key to solution in this study is multiple correlation method or multiple regressional analysis, which is primarily based on the method of least squres and which is solved by the form of systems of linear equations. And for verification of the change of characteristics of unit hydrograph according to the variation of a various kind of hydrological charateristics (for example, precipitation, tree cover, soil condition, etc),seasonal unit hydrograph models of dry season(autumn, winter), semi-dry season (spring), rainy season (summer) were made respectively. The results obtained in this study were summarized as follows; 1.During the test period of 1966-1971, effective rainfall was estimated for the total 114 run-off hydrograph. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation to the ovservation value was 6%, -which is mush smaller than 12% of the error of conventional method. 2.During the test period, daily distribution of long-term run-off discharge was estimated by the unit hydrograph model. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation by the application of standard unit hydrograph model was 12%. When estimating by each seasonal unit bydrograph model, the relative error was 14% during dry season 10% during semi-dry season and 7% during rainy season, which is much smaller than 37% of conventional method. Summing up the analysis results obtained above, it is convinced that qb-index method of this study for the estimation of effective rainfall be preciser than any other method developed before. Because even recently no method has been developed for the estimation of daily distribution of long-term run-off dicharge, therefore estimation value by unit hydrograph model was only compared with that due to kaziyama method which estimates monthly run-off discharge. However this method due to this study turns out to have high accuracy. If specially mentioned from the results of this study, there is no need to use each seasonal unit hydrograph model separately except the case of semi-dry season. The author hopes to analyze the latter case in future sudies.

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The Forecasting a Maximum Barbell Weight of Snatch Technique in Weightlifting (역도 인상동작 성공 시 최대 바벨무게 예측)

  • Hah, Chong-Ku;Ryu, Ji-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to predict the failure or success of the Snatch-lifting trial as a consequence of the stand-up phase simulated in Kane's equation of motion that was effective for the dynamic analysis of multi-segment. This experiment was a case study in which one male athlete (age: 23yrs, height: 154.4cm, weight: 64.5kg) from K University was selected The system of a simulation included a multi-segment system that had one degree of freedom and one generalized coordinate for the shank segment angle. The reference frame was fixed by the Nonlinear Trans formation (NLT) method in order to set up a fixed Cartesian coordinate system in space. A weightlifter lifted a 90kg-barbell that was 75% of subject's maximum lifting capability (120kg). For this study, six cameras (Qualisys Proreflex MCU240s) and two force-plates (Kistler 9286AAs) were used for collecting data. The motion tracks of 11 land markers were attached on the major joints of the body and barbell. The sampling rates of cameras and force-plates were set up 100Hz and 1000Hz, respectively. Data were processed via the Qualisys Track manager (QTM) software. Landmark positions and force-plate amplitudes were simultaneously integrated by Qualisys system The coordinate data were filtered using a fourth-order Butterworth low pass filtering with an estimated optimum cut-off frequency of 9Hz calculated with Andrew & Yu's formula. The input data of the model were derived from experimental data processed in Matlab6.5 and the solution of a model made in Kane's method was solved in Matematica5.0. The conclusions were as follows; 1. The torque motor of the shank with 246Nm from this experiment could lift a maximum barbell weight (158.98kg) which was about 246 times as much as subject's body weight (64.5kg). 2. The torque motor with 166.5 Nm, simulated by angular displacement of the shank matched to the experimental result, could lift a maximum barbell weight (90kg) which was about 1.4 times as much as subject's body weight (64.5kg). 3. Comparing subject's maximum barbell weight (120kg) with a modeling maximum barbell weight (155.51kg) and with an experimental maximum barbell weight (90kg), the differences between these were about +35.7kg and -30kg. These results strongly suggest that if the maximum barbell weight is decided, coaches will be able to provide further knowledge and information to weightlifters for the performance improvement and then prevent injuries from training of weightlifters. It hopes to apply Kane's method to other sports skill as well as weightlifting to simulate its motion in the future study.

Development of a Road Hazard Map Considering Meteorological Factors (기상인자를 고려한 도로 위험지도 개발)

  • Kim, Hyung Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2017
  • Recently, weather information is getting closer to our real life, and it is a very important factor especially in the transportation field. Although the damage caused by the abnormal climate changes around the world has been gradually increased and the correlation between the road risk and the possibility of traffic accidents is very high, the domestic research has been performed at the level of basic research. The Purpose of this study is to develop a risk map for the road hazard forecasting service of weather situation by linking real - time weather information and traffic information based on accident analysis data by weather factors. So, we have developed a collection and analysis about related data, processing, applying prediction models in various weather conditions and a method to provide the road hazard map for national highways and provincial roads on a web map. As a result, the road hazard map proposed in this study can be expected to be useful for road managers and users through online and mobile services in the future. In addition, information that can support safe autonomous driving by continuously archiving and providing a risk map database so as to anticipate and preemptively prepare for the risk due to meteorological factors in the autonomous driving vehicle, which is a key factor of the 4th Industrial Revolution, and this map can be expected to be fully utilized.

A Study on Low-Floor Bus Routes Selection - Focused on the Case of Jeollabuk-Do - (저상버스 노선선정 방안에 관한 연구 -전라북도 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Chang-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Youp;Kim, Jai-Sung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2014
  • Approaching to aging society with increasing transportation vulnerable, most developed countries has positively promote low-floor bus. Such circumstance in Korea has plan to introduce low-floor bus to intra-city bus system which accounted for 30 percent of total number of buses however there is no specific operating plan for this matter. According to the revealed preference study on bus service, the study shows that the efficiency of low-floor is relatively low than that of other buses, therefore, it is necessary to establish feasible plan for bus route selection. Thus, this study is to conduct research on analyzing trip characteristics of transportation vulnerable and establish bus route selection measures for low-floor bus. The result from the survey in Jeollabuk-do Province reveals that the trip purpose of transportation vulnerable is mainly for welfare and medical service, which was made less than 6 times a week. Futhermore, 37.6 percent of transportation vulnerable use buses, thus, it is essential to improve its service quality for enhancing user's convenience and safety. In that transportation vulnerable O-D needs to be established and forecasts future demand for selecting optimal bus route. According to the estimation, route passing through densely populated areas with transportation vulnerable should take the first priority, city circular and other route would be next. Moreover, it is economically efficient that areas populated more than 200,000 with fixed route and less than 200,000 with limited route responsive to demands would be feasible plans. This study will have greater an impact on transportation planning and further research on transportation vulnerable.

Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method (확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • The researches have only conducted regarding construction safety management and risk on interior construction site(workers) and is insufficient about the exterior construction site(third party). As a result, ordinary people who were near construction sites have injured and hold a negative view when they think about the construction industry because construction industry have been exposed to them having a high accidents rate through media. In addition, the importance of industrial disaster prevention is emphasized at this point in time, the overall safety management system should be constructed with considering construction site external(third human) for improving the negative image of the construction industry among ordinary people. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the quantification model of human accident utilizing the insurance claim payout occurred construction site exterior(third party). In the future, it can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site interior exterior and development for forecasting control system of human accident.