• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.16
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• pp.207-254
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• 2001

This study is focused on forecasting the future of tole-democracy. Many Scholars expect that internet provides technological space needing realizing the tole-democracy or deliberate democracy. Especially in Korea, this expectation is higher than other nations because of political corruption and inefficiency. Therefore internet is intended to considering as new technologies reforming political process. In 16th the general election period, many candidates established home page and used as election campaign tool. And a little of home pages is payed attention to among voters. In spite of using internet as political medium, many political communication researchers have a doubt that internet will realize ideal direct democracy. It's reason is that internet is open and anonymous space. At anonymous space, communication participators is tended to be irresponsible and non-serious. Therefore it is hard that cyber-politics will be ideal type of democracy. In this context, this paper analyzed how pauicipators communicate with others at cyber bulletin board establishing candidate's home pages. Main research questions is how do discussions at cyberspace fulfill the conditions of deliberate democracy. Therefore, concrete questions include; who are participators at candidate's cyber bulletin board; which pattern do they communicate; what is the theme of communication; which effects do the anonymous character of cyberspace influence. To that purpose, this study conducted content analysis on 4,210 written matters at 82 cyber bulletin boards of candidate's home page establishing during 16th the general election period. It can be found that cyberspace in Korea still is not deliberate democracy space and not will be. Firstly, discussion patterns at cyber bulletin board is "candidate with supporters communication space. To be exact, it is said that candidate's home page is "the space of self-convincing among supporters." Secondly, the main themes of discussion are simple emotional expressions; "I support you!" "fighting" "Be vigor" etc. By contrast, real political contents'-central or local political matters - is relatively few. In the mode of expression, real political messages are more positive, logical than simple expressions, candidates private matters. Especially this characteristic will make cyberspace as "mutual slander space" consolidating anonymous characteristic of cyberspace. finally, Cyberspace in Korea still is not real "public sphere" realizing deliberate process. Therefore to be real public sphere, it is needed to participant's ethical maturity and political citizenship. In conclusion, it is difficult that cyberspace will reconstruct the Athene's Agora. On the contrary, Cyberagora will like to be irrespectable area fulfilling the sweeping. Making the deliberate space, technological possibility and ethical condition will have to be balanced together.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.6 no.1 s.11
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• pp.35-51
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• 1998

This article aims at presenting a new framework for traffic accident analysis by proposing a new methodology for the management of the accident data and by establishing the relationship between accidents and roadway characteristics within it For the first issue, authors introduced geographic information system (GIS) into the analysis framework of the accident data since it is believed that analysis based on GIS seems to provide more effective information in reducing accidents. Point-based, line-based, and polygon (grid)-based approaches were set of along with concrete examples. Especially, the location-based scores such as localization, specialization coefficients, and Tress score have been added to identify the intensity of certain accident types within study area or grids. The second issue addressed the equation formulation of accident and fatality numbers with roadway characteristics like number of intersections and road length in a grid with a sense that (1) accidents on roadways are the function of the roadway physical characteristics rather than the socio-economical secondary data (2) the equation can be applied to the any 'suggested' area, not just region or nation, and (3) the accident forecasting model should emphasize the accident location itself more than any other factors. Some equations based on those assumption have been derived along with some future research agenda.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.123-133
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• 2015

Purpose - The Korean government has devised intermodal transportation policies and granted subsidies to shippers and logistics companies that made a conversion of transportation means through the policies. This provides support by expanding the complex uniform railroad transportation and overhauling the deteriorated railroad facilities. As for 2013, however, the freight transportation percentage of railroad was 4.5% in tons and 8.5% in ton kilometers. Meanwhile, since the 1990s, developed countries such as the U.S. and Europe have been trying to expand intermodal freight transport with a legal and institutional support to build a logistics system corresponding with social and economic environmental changes. In this study, I set out to examine the effects of the intermodal freight transport policies in the EU and the U.S., and to explore the direction of setting up a rail intermodal transport system in South Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - The paper used a qualitative research methodology through the literature review. First, was an overview of Intermodal transportation in the EU, U.S. and UN. Second, it describes the development of transport in Europe and the U.S. with particular emphasis on intermodal freight transport. Third, it explores the direction of setting up a intermodal freight transport in South Korea. The last section contains concluding remarks. Results - As for the EU, it has been promoting integration between transport and intermodal logistics network designs while utilizing ITS or ICT and supports for rail freight intermodal by giving reduction to a facilities fee or subsidizing for rail freight in order to minimize the cost of external due to freight transport. On the other hand, as for the U.S., it has been made up of an industrial-led operating project and has been promoting it to improve accessibility between intermodal hubs and cargo terminals through intermodal corridor program, and an intermodal cargo hub access corridor projects, etc. Moreover, it has tried to construct intermodal transport system using ITS or ICT and to remove Barrier. As a result, in these countries, the proportion of intermodal freight transport is going to be the second significant transport compared with rail and maritime transport. An Effective rail intermodal transport system is needed in South Korea, as seen in the case of these countries. In order to achieve this object, the following points are required to establish radical infrastructure policy; diversify investment financing measures taken under public-private partnerships, legal responsibilities, improvement of utilization of existing facilities to connect the railway terminal and truck terminal, and enhancement service competitiveness through providing cargo tracking and security information that combines the ITS and ICT. Conclusions - This study will be used as a basis for policy and support for intermodal freight transport in South Korea. In the future, it is also necessary to examine from the perspective of the shipper companies using the rail intermodal transport, ie, recognition of shipper, needed institutional supports, and transportation demand forecasting and cost-effective analysis of the railway infrastructure systems improvement.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.63-72
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• 2013

Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.15-26
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• 2019

Anjunshinmungo (The safety e-report) has been in operation since 2014, and there are about 1 million cumulative reports by June 2019. This study analyzes the contents of more than 1 million safety newspapers reported at the present time of information age to determine how powerful and meaningful the people's voice and interest are. In particular, we are interested in forecasting ability. We wanted to check whether the report of the safety newspaper was related to possible disasters. To this end, the researchers received data reported in the safety newspaper as text and analyzed it by natural language analysis methodology. Based on this, the newspaper articles during the analysis of the safety newspaper were analyzed, and the correlation between the contents of the newspaper and the newspaper was analyzed. As a result, accidents occurred within a few months as the number of reports related to response and confirmation increased, and analyzing the contents of safety reports previously reported on social instability can be used to predict future disasters.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.86-95
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• 2013

In this study, a model of compensation and amendment of forecasted travel demand was developed to calculate the range of values depends on the changes in the risk factors, selecting factors that might affect traffic demand changes among risk factors. Selected factors are as follows: influenced area population, the number of registrated vehicle per person, ratio of service industry workers, and city intervals. Then this model is applied to six routes of expressway and the calculated value were compensated with error rate being reflected on each quartile value with respect to influenced area population (200,000 people standards). Result from appling developed model to Cheongwon-Sangju expressway suggests that the model could compensate the error rate by more than 50%, which in turn validate the effectiveness of the model developed. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been identified.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.302-311
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• 2020

There are limitations to cope with flood damage by structural strategies alone because both frequency and intensity of floods are increasing due to climate change. Therefore, it is one of the necessary factors in the nonstructural countermeasures to collect and analyze historical flood damage records for the future flood damage assessments. In order to estimate flood damage costs in Gyeongsangbuk-do where severe flood damage occurs frequently due to geographical and climatic effects, this paper has performed the regression analysis on flood damage records over the past 20 years (1999-2018) by rainfall characteristics, which is one of the major causes of flood damage. This paper has then examined the relationship between the terrain features and rainfall characteristics in the regional regression functions, and also estimated the flood damage risk for 100-year rainfall by using the regional regression functions presented for the 22 administrative districts in Gyeongsangbuk-do excluding Ulleung-gun. The flood damage assessment shows that the relatively high damage risk is estimated for county areas adjacent to the eastern coast in Gyeongsangbuk-do. The regional damage estimate functions in this paper are expected to be used as one of the nonstructural countermeasures to estimate flood damage risk for the design or forecasting rainfall data.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.1873-1879
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• 2014

There are various methodologies to forecast the travel time using real-time data but the K-nearest neighborhood (KNN) method in general is regarded as the most one in forecasting when there are enough historical data. The objective of this study is to evaluate applicability of KNN method. In this study, real-time and historical data of toll collection system (TCS) traffic flow and the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) link travel time, and the historical path travel time data are used as input data for KNN approach. The proposed method investigates the path travel time which is the nearest to TCS traffic flow and DSRC link travel time from real-time and historical data, then it calculates the predicted path travel time using weight average method. The results show that accuracy increased when weighted value of DSRC link travel time increases. Moreover the trend of forecasted and real travel times are similar. In addition, the error in forecasted travel time could be further reduced when more historical data could be available in the future database.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.61-87
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• 2010

This study is based on the analysis of technology innovation performance for Inno-biz. The primary purposes of this study are to help the government formulate Inno-biz related supporting policies and improve the fitness of evaluation models for Inno-biz. In this study the definition of "the outcome of technology innovation" includes technology competitiveness changes, technology forecasting as well as the outcome of technology innovation. For this analysis, 55 independent variables were used and categorized into ability of technology innovation, ability of commercialization, and ability of technology management. The results indicate that all three variable groups have positively influenced the outcome of technology innovation. Especially ability of technology innovation is highly related to technology competitiveness and business in future. The ability of commercialization enhances technology competitiveness and predictability in major business indexes; however it doesn't influence business performance in a short-term period. The ability of technology management enables businesses to forecast technology changes, but doesn't effect short-term business outcomes.