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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.086

Compensation and Amendment of Highway Travel Demand Forecasting  

Lee, Eui-Jun (The SMART Highway R&D Center, Korea Expressway Corporation)
Kim, Young-Sun (Department of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ajou University)
Yi, Yong-Ju (Department of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ajou University)
OH, Young-Tae (Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University)
Choi, Keechoo (Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University)
Yu, Jeong Whon (Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.31, no.3, 2013 , pp. 86-95 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, a model of compensation and amendment of forecasted travel demand was developed to calculate the range of values depends on the changes in the risk factors, selecting factors that might affect traffic demand changes among risk factors. Selected factors are as follows: influenced area population, the number of registrated vehicle per person, ratio of service industry workers, and city intervals. Then this model is applied to six routes of expressway and the calculated value were compensated with error rate being reflected on each quartile value with respect to influenced area population (200,000 people standards). Result from appling developed model to Cheongwon-Sangju expressway suggests that the model could compensate the error rate by more than 50%, which in turn validate the effectiveness of the model developed. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been identified.
Keywords
4-step Travel Demand Model; Amendment of Forecasted Travel Demand; Compensation of Forecasted Demand; Expressway Travel Demand; Quartile Value;
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