• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.267-278
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• 2020

ESS is an essential requirement for resolving power shortages and power demand management and promoting renewable energy at a time when the energy paradigm changes. In this paper, we propose a cost-effective ESS Peak-Shaving operation plan through load and solar power generation forecast. For the ESS operation plan, electric load and solar power generation were predicted through RMS, which is a statistical measure, and a target load reduction guideline for one hour was set through the predicted electric load and solar power generation amount. The load and solar power generation amount from May 6th to 10th, 2019 was predicted by simulation of load and photovoltaic power generation using real data of the target customer for one year, and an hourly guideline was set. The average error rate for predicting load was 7.12%, and the average error rate for predicting solar power generation amount was 10.57%. Through the ESS operation plan, it was confirmed that the hourly guide-line suggested in this paper contributed to the peak-shaving maximization of customers.Through the results of this paper, it is expected that future energy problems can be reduced by minimizing environmental problems caused by fossil energy in connection with solar power and utilizing new and renewable energy to the maximum.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.87-95
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• 2020

The Incheon airport is a gateway to and from the Republic of Korea and has a great influence on the image of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the number of airport passengers in the long term in order to maintain the quality of service at the airport. In this study, we compared the predictive performance of various time series models to predict the air passenger demand at Incheon Airport. From 2002 to 2019, passenger data include trend and seasonality. We considered the naive method, decomposition method, exponential smoothing method, SARIMA, PROPHET. In order to compare the capacity and number of passengers at Incheon Airport in the future, the short-term, mid-term, and long-term was forecasted by time series models. For the short-term forecast, the exponential smoothing model, which weighted the recent data, was excellent, and the number of annual users in 2020 will be about 73.5 million. For the medium-term forecast, the SARIMA model considering stationarity was excellent, and the annual number of air passengers in 2022 will be around 79.8 million. The PROPHET model was excellent for long-term prediction and the annual number of passengers is expected to be about 99.0 million in 2024.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.435-444
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• 2023

Suitable environmental conditions in Saemangeum frequently favor phytoplankton growth. There have been occurrences of sudden phytoplankton blooms, surpassing the algae management standards. A model was designed to prevent such blooms using scientific predictive techniques to forecast and regulate the possibility of phytoplankton blooms. We propose effective and efficient algae control measures concerning every phytoplankton species optimized through the policy control of nutrients (DIN, PO4-P) from rivers and controlling lake salinity using gate operations. The probability of phytoplankton blooms was initially forecast using an artificial neural network algorithm based on observations. The model's Kappa number fluctuated from 0.7889 to 1.0000, indicating good to excellent predictive power. The Garson algorithm was then utilized to assess the significance of explanatory variables for every species. Meanwhile, the probability of phytoplankton blooms was anticipated depending on the DIN and salinity value changes. Therefore, the model predicted the precise DIN and salinity concentrations to inhibit phytoplankton blooms for each species. Hence, the green algae model can create effective proactive measures to avoid future phytoplankton blooms in enormous artificial lakes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.1D
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• pp.1-11
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• 2006

This study conducts a theoretical research on road traffic noise. Also, the domestic road noise forecast models were compared each other and analyzed with advanced countries' models to indicate the application possibility and problems. For the establishment of a general formula, we compared the forecasted value with the actual value applied in the formula proposed by the National Environment Institute, and examined the necessary improvement of the domestic road traffic noise forecast model. Also, a regression model was built to examine the relationship between traffic factors and noise. The traffic volume and speed are the main traffic factors used in this formula to affect the noise. From the results, it was found that the speed had a closer relationship with the noise rather than the traffic volume. Therefore, to decrease road noise, it is more important to control traffic speed. The spatial effect of road traffic noise within the apartment complexes was used in the case study to derive location-specific adjustment values. We surveyed the road traffic noise of three apartment complexes, and found that the road traffic noise within each complex was affected at plane level as well as at three-dimensionally. In other words, as the distance from the sound origin grows farther, noise level decreases. Also, it was found that noise increases as heigt goes up, but drops when the height goes beyond a certain level, and that the effect of noise decreases if there are obstacles along the path of the noise direction. Therefore, apartment site design should be done with consideration of the effects of noise in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.110-111
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• 2023

As carbon neutrality has recently emerged as a global issue, the carbon neutral roadmap of MOF has been established and various strategies have been proposed to achieve carbon neutrality in the entire marine industry. The port sector is also included in the target for greenhouse gas reduction, but emissions are not being measured due to limitations in data collection and no inventory construction. For building a carbon-neutral port, it is essential to calculate and forecast emissions and set reduction targets. Accordingly, in this study, CO₂ emitted from domestic port equipment was calculated according to the IPCC Guildeline's emission calculation method, and future emission was estimated. As a result of the analysis, about 420,000 tons of CO₂ was emitted based on the cargo volume in 2020, and emissions are expected to continue to increase in proportion to the increase and about 720,000 tons will be emitted by 2050. In order to achieve carbon neutrality of the port, it needs to promote emission reduction by converting the power source for oil-based equipment to eco-friendly fuel. Also container and miscellaneous ports which require complicated cargo handling need to effort to reduce CO₂.

• Industry Promotion Research
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.115-124
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• 2022

The most difficult things, when we study the future-telling science of human destiny, are in case of what one's individual's fate is bad which is shown by Saju-Palza(四柱八字), In that case, we have faced the problems on how we live ; to follow or to deny our fate under the brief of improving our lives by trying to make hard efforts, regardless of the bad Saju-Palza(四柱八字). However, we can hardly find the clear answer to those questions. 『Liao Fan 4 lessons(了凡四訓)』 shows that one's destiny can be improved by accumulating good deeds despite of the bad Saju-Palza(四柱八字). Someone says that future can be created, not be foreseen. As well, Dr. Steven Coby says that the best definite way to forecast future is in creating the future. Anyhow, the strong desire and curiosity to know one's individual's future is having been lasted until now since the Genesis. we guess these desires may be one of our basic instinct. If then, the function and role of the future-telling science will be to increase the accuracy of future prediction, whether our fate has been fixed or been able to be changeable. Therefore, this study summarizes the definition of confusing terms, focusing on Gyeokguk(格局) and Sangshin(相神), the core of Myeongrihak(命理學), which is considered to be one of the most popular future-telling science. Concering Gyeok(格), in this paper, Nae-Gyeok(內格) has been mainly considered and Oi-Gyeok(外格) or Special-Gyeok(別格) have not been addressed. Specifically, it summarized the views of the classical Myeongri(命理) books and modern scholars on Gyeokguk(格局) and Yongshin(用神). In particular, it also summarized the comparison of various concepts of Gyeokguk(格局), the advantages and disadvantages of each Nae-Gyeok(內格)'s characteristic, the determination order of Nae-Gyeok(內格) and the good case and bad case of it's Gyeok(格). In addition, it was necessary to summarize the concept of Sangshin(相神), which was talked about in 『Japyeongjinjeon』 and to briefly summarize Heeshin(喜神) with a broader concept than Sangshin(相神). The different usage of Sangshin(相神) was also analyzed, between the priority interpretation of Cheongan(天干) in Day-Column(日柱) and the interpretation based on Jijee(地支) in Month-Column(月柱). Finally, this paper was completed, leaving it later as a research task, the confusion that comes from the scholars' acceptance of the comprehensive diversity on the same term.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.1243-1254
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• 2021

For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.77-96
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• 2018

A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

• Archives of design research
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.149-162
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• 1998

This study is what tried to examine the importance of material in industrial design. Then, if planning is to start of product design, the use of material is the last step to complete design. Design material has existed from the time before mankind were born, and the new material which is useful for human beings is developing rapidly. It is no exaggeration to say that our environment is the aggregation of material which was surrounded with us. Then, material has the timely, spatial and cultural feature as well as physical feature. Besides, all sorts of functions of communicating information are being contained in accordance with the character of material. The outside surface of material has the function to develop the sense organ of human beings. This study examines 4 kinds of cultural features in design materials and shown by findings is as follows : Rrst is the technical progressivity to lead new Design form. Second is the symbolic nature to perform the communication function. Third is the sensible attribute to develop surface effect of Design material. Fourth is the future-oriented nature to convince the future such as new material and technology etc. Thus, so as to perform the competitive product design, it is important to grasp the harmony between material and design, structure and processing, and the substantial meaning that the material has and apply them properly, above all. Because the discovery of material will be the measure to forecast future design.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.249-258
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• 2006

Impacts of global warming have been identified in many areas including natural ecosystem. A good number of studies based on climate models forecasting future climate have been conducted in many countries worldwide. Due to its global coverage, GCM, which is a most frequently used climate model, has limits to apply to Korea with such a narrower and complicated terrain. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a study impact assessment of climate changes with a climate model fully reflecting characteristics of Korean climate. In this respect, this study was designed to compare and analyze the GCM and RCM in order to determine a suitable climate model for Korea. In this study, spatial scope was Korea for 10 years from 1981 to 1990. As a research method, current climate was estimated on the basis of the data obtained from observation at the GHCN. Future climate was forecast using 4 GCMs furnished by the IPCC among SRES A2 Scenario as well as the RCM received from the NIES of Japan. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted for the purpose of comparing data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM. As a result of this study, average annual temperature of Korea between 1981 and 1990 was found to be around $12.03^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall being 2.72mm. Under the GCM, average annual temperature was between 10.22 and $16.86^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall between 2.13 and 3.35mm. Average annual temperature in the RCM was identified $12.56^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall of 5.01mm. In the comparison of the data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM, RCMs of both temperature and rainfall were found to well reflect characteristics of Korea's climate. This study is important mainly in that as a preliminary study to examine impact of climate changes such as global warming it chose appropriate climate model for our country. These results of the study showed that future climate produced under similar conditions with actual ones may be applied for various areas in many ways.