• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.33-48
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• 2017

Returning to farming and rural village is one of the most hot social issues in Korea. Therefore, the government has tried to make up a policy program, which aims to support for the urban residents to get appropriate informations and to make right decisions about returning to farming and rural village. For the sparsely populated rural communities, this phenomena are some good opportunities for their sustainable development. The government needs the resasonale prospect on returning to farming and rural village, because their policy program should be made on the basis sound data and information. But, with the current data about returning to farming in Korea, it is impossible to make an econometrical model that can forecast the population who will return to farming and rural village. So, we tried a delphi method to sketch the future returning to farming and rural village. The delphi panels gave us some prospects on the issues. They anticipated that the population of returning to farming will increase for the next five years. And, they recommended some policy directions.

• Journal of the Korea Fashion and Costume Design Association
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.83-99
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• 2013

This research is a follow-up study about analysis on the many different customer groups and their various culture trend, which intends to realize diverse values depending on the sense. The purpose of this study was to develop direction forecast for the future fashion industry through consideration about the characteristics of contemporary fashion industry by the change of different customer's culture trend. And also try to find solution to survival strategy of fashion fields able to evolve with customer. Change of the customer's cultural trend draws a shift in policy in the 21st fashion industry as follows : 1) mash-up 2) complexation through decentering and blurring 3) invisible and immaterial value oriented 4) expansion of minor small market. Moreover, this shows sociocultural meaning as follows. First is spread of flexible and horizontal relationship through collaborative consumption and collaboration. Second is concentration on floating and indeterminate chance through dismantling of various different fashion categories. Third is formation of the permanent difference by selection and focus. Last is expansion of understanding about cultural-ecology. Customer cultural trend is 'meme' of cultural gene in fashion field, so it intends to co-evolute with customer by continuous change.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.33-41
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• 2017

Recently, it is recognized that the increase of return farmers is an important task to revitalize rural areas. There is a growing need to improve the housing environment in rural areas by expanding rental housing supply in order to increase return farmers. The purpose of the study is to forecast the rural rental housing demand based on the questionnaire survey and to suggest the rural rental housing supply in the public sector. The rural rental housing demand consists of demand for rural residents and demand for return farmers. The survey was conducted for rural residents and potential return farmers. The rural rental housing demand was analyzed by using prospect of rural residents and return farmers in the future and the rate of intention to move into rural rental house derived from the survey. In this study, rural rental housing demand which does not take into consideration the rent level and rural rental house demand considering it are presented respectively.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.129-135
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• 2016

Purpose: Building figuration is imperative to perceive the its value, environmental clean status and form. Therefore, maintenance activities of the building exterior are required to keep the housing condition and value. Each household should pay the repair cost which is brought out in the future. For this repair cost, the estimation model would needed to forecast and provide the required cost. This study aimed at providing the estimation model of the repair cost, using the repair survey data between the 2011 and 2014 in Seoul. Method: For these, it took various estimation function of repair cost such as 1st function, inverse function and so on. These above functions would be applied into the building exterior and outdoor facilities which figure the building shape and characteristics. Result: Results of this study are shown ; First, among 11 estimation models, the power function has a better statistics and goodness-of-fit than any other models. Second, the estimation model with a variable of household has a pattern in upward to the right. On the contrary, the model with management area is little downward to the right. Both of them are depended on the estimated parameter of the power function and the parameter smaller than 1.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.631-636
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• 2006

In this paper, an algorithm of time series function forecasting using GMDH(group method of data handling) algorithm that gives more weight to the recent data is proposed. Traditional methods of GMDH forecasting gives same weights to the old and recent data, but by the point of view that the recent data is more important than the old data to forecast the future, an algorithm that makes the recent data contribute more to training is proposed for more accurate forecasting. The average error rate of electric power demand forecasting by the traditional GMDH algorithm which does not use data weighting algorithm is 0.9862 %, but as the result of applying the data weighting GMDH algorithm proposed in this paper to electric power forecasting demand the average error rate by the algorithm which uses data weighting algorithm and chooses the best data weighting rate is 0.688 %. Accordingly in forecasting the electric power demand by GMDH the proposed method can acquire the reduced error rate of 30.2 % compared to the traditional method.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.425-434
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• 2013

Nowadays, the korean peninsula has endured weather changes toward to the subtropical climate. Also demographical structure has changed into multi-cultural society in which many people from subtropical areas have immigrated into Korea. Therefore, consumption and production of subtropical vegetables become important. For the analysis, we choose eight important subtropical crops. EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) with many parameters and elasticities is used for the forecast of consumption and required cultivation area. The simulation focuses on the changes of the number of foreign workers and immigrated women in Korea to predict the quantity of consumption and required area in Korea. The results show that we need additional land area about 581~1,065 ha for the cropping subtropical vegetables in Korea. Finally, these required area can be provided by the cities and counties in coast area in Gyeongsangnam-Do, Jeonranam-Do and Jeju-Do. Climate change will be continued in the future. Together with climate change, the change of demographical structure into multi-culture may increase consumption and production of subtropical vegetables. Forecasting of increased consumption and required cultivation area for subtropical vegetables is significant.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.957-962
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• 2005

Since the nation's currency crisis in 1997. Korea reioined the USD 10.000 per capita income group after collapse of per capita income to USD 6.000 due to the minus GDP growth and sharp hike of exchange rate. It has also been expected for Korea to achieve per capita income of USD 20.000. provided that it maintains $10\%$ export increase rate. $5\%$ nominal GDP growth rate. $3\%$ consumer price index. $2\%$ increase in KRW/USD exchange rate. and $1\%$ net population increase rate. Yet. it should be noted that the nation needs to fulfill the necessity of various SOC infrastructure investment in order to achieve this goal. This paper will address the prospects for the future direction of the national SOC policies through the historical examination of the industrialized nations. such as U.S.A.. U.K.. France. and Japan. with regard to the relationships between economic growth and SOC provision. Some efforts will be made to forecast the optimal budget allocation of the national SOC, in particular, between highway and railway sectors.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.672-679
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• 2018

Recently, microgrid (MG) has been proposed as one of the most critical solutions for various energy problems. For the optimal and economic operation of MGs, it is very important to forecast the load profile. However, it is not easy to predict the load accurately since the load in a MG is small and highly variable. In this paper, we propose an artificial neural network (ANN) based method to predict the energy use in campus buildings in short-term time series from one hour up to one week. The proposed method analyzes and extracts the features from the historical data of load and temperature to generate the prediction of future energy consumption in the building based on sparsified K-means. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, historical load data in hourly resolution collected from the campus buildings were used. The experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms the conventional forecasting methods.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.105-110
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• 2016

Mountainous disasters such as landslides and debris flow are difficult to forecast. Debris flow in particular often flows along the valley until it reaches the road or residential area, causing casualties and huge damages. In this study, the researchers selected Seoraksan National Park area located at Inje County (Inje-gun), Gangwon Province-where many mountainous disasters occur due to localized torrential downpours-for the damage reduction and cause analysis of the area experiencing frequent mountainous disasters every year. Then, the researchers conducted the field study and constructed geospatial information data by GIS method to analyze the characteristics of the disaster-occurring area. Also, to extract more precise geographic parameters, the researchers scanned debris flow triggering area through terrestrial LiDAR and constructed 3D geographical data. LiDAR geographical data was then compared with the existing numerical map to evaluate its precision and made the comparative analysis with the geographic data before and after the disaster occurrence. In the future, it will be utilized as basic data for risk analysis of mountainous disaster or disaster reduction measures through a fine-grid topographical map.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.34 no.8
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• pp.1212-1221
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• 2010

Recently, various types of ships are facing with a challenge to adopt the high efficient and environment-friendly power generating systems. For the reduction of exhaust emissions, improvement of thermal efficiency, and lowering the noise and vibration levels, fuel cells are gaining the much more interests. This paper projects the future marine fuel cell market on the basis of considering the historical world shipbuilding and marine engine market. To do this, the number of total ship is, at first, obtained by forecasting the number of annual new shipbuilding orders and completions. Finally, fuel cell market is forecasted by obtaining the engine capacity for annual world total number of ships and engine orders.