• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.635-643
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• 2018

In the present study, influence of earthquake intensity range on seismic fragility analysis of a RC bridge has been evaluated. For this purpose, a RC bridge damaged by a past earthquake has been selected, and analytical model of the bridge has been developed for nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis. A total of 25 recorded earthquake motions have been employed for the nonlinear analysis from which maximum lateral drift ratio of piers are obtained. Then, seismic fragility analysis has been conducted for the bridge using the nonlinear analysis results. Probability of exceeding damage has been computed in terms of using the maximum likelihood estimation, and effect of earthquake intensity range of the motions on seismic fragility curves has been assessed analytically. Analytical predictions indicate that the earthquake intensity range is of utmost significance for rationale seismic fragility analysis reflecting a physical damage state of a bridge and seismic performance evaluation of such bridge.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.611-625
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• 2014

This paper presents a simple methodology that integrates an improved storey shear modelling, Incremental Dynamic Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation in order to carryout vulnerability analysis towards development of fragility curves for Unreinforced Brick Masonry buildings. The methodology is demonstrated by developing fragility curves of a single storey Unreinforced Brick Masonry building for which results of experiment under lateral load is available in the literature. In the study presented, both uncertainties in mechanical properties of masonry and uncertainties in the characteristics of earthquake ground motion are included. The research significance of the methodology proposed is that, it accommodates a new method of damage grade classification which is based on 'structural performance characteristics' instead of 'fixed limiting values'. The usefulness of such definition is discussed as against the existing practice.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.723-740
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• 2015

In this study, the seismic performance of skewed highway bridges has been assessed by using fragility function methodology. Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) has been used to prepare complete information about the different damage states of a 30 degree skewed highway bridge. A three dimensional model of a skewed highway bridge is presented and incremental dynamic analysis has been applied. The details of the full nonlinear procedures have also been presented. Different spectral intensity measures are studied and the effects of the period on the fragility curves are shown in different figures. The efficiency, practicality and proficiency of these different spectral intensity measures are compared. A suite of 20 earthquake ground motions are considered for nonlinear time history analysis. It has been shown that, considering different intensity measures (IM) leads us to overestimate or low estimate the damage probability which has been discussed completely.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.517-538
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• 2016

This paper presents a probabilistic fragility analysis for two groups of bridges: simply supported and integral bridges. Comparisons are based on the seismic fragility of the bridges subjected to accelerograms of two seismic sources. Three-dimensional finite-element models of the bridges were created for each set of bridge samples, considering the nonlinear behaviour of critical bridge components. When the seismic hazard in the site is controlled by a few seismic sources, it is important to quantify separately the contribution of each fault to the structure vulnerability. In this study, seismic records come from earthquakes that originated in strike-slip and reverse faulting mechanisms. The influence of the earthquake mechanism on the seismic vulnerability of the bridges was analysed by considering the displacement ductility of the piers. An in-depth parametric study was conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the bridges' seismic responses to variations of structural parameters. The analysis showed that uncertainties related to the presence of lap splices in columns and superstructure type in terms of integral or simply supported spans should be considered in the fragility analysis of the bridge system. Finally, the fragility curves determine the conditional probabilities that a specific structural demand will reach or exceed the structural capacity by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) and acceleration spectrum intensity (ASI). The results also show that the simply supported bridges perform consistently better from a seismic perspective than integral bridges and focal mechanism of the earthquakes plays an important role in the seismic fragility analysis of highway bridges.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.32 no.11
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• pp.31-42
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• 2016

Usually the seismic stability analysis of slope uses the pseudostatic analysis considering the inertial force by the earthquake as a static load. Geostructures such as slope include the uncertainty of soil properties. Therefore, it is necessary to consider probabilistic method for stability analysis. In this study, the probabilistic stability analysis of slope considering the uncertainty of soil properties has been performed. The fragility curve that represents the probability of exceeding limit state of slope as a function of the ground motion has been established. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been implemented to perform the probabilistic stability analysis of slope with pseudostatic analysis. A procedure to develop the fragility curve by the pseudostatic horizontal acceleration has been presented by calculating the probability of failure based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based response surface technique that reduces the required time of MCS. The results showed that the proposed method can get the fragility curve that is similar to the direct MCS-based fragility curve, and can be efficiently used to reduce the analysis time.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.68 no.6
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• pp.747-760
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• 2018

In the present study, a methodology for developing fragilities of arch concrete dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards is introduced. Firstly, the probability risk and fragility curves are presented, followed by implementation and representation of the way this method is used. Amirkabir arch concrete dam was subjected to non-linear dynamic analyses. A modified three dimensional rotating smeared crack model was used to take the nonlinear behavior of mass concrete into account. The proposed model considers major characteristics of mass concrete. These characteristics are pre-softening behavior, softening initiation criteria, fracture energy conservation, suitable damping mechanism and strain rate effect. In the present analysis, complete fluid-structure interaction is included to account for appropriate fluid compressibility and absorptive reservoir boundary conditions. In this study, the Amirkabir arch concrete dam is subjected to a set of 8 three-component earthquakes each scaled to 10 increasing intensity levels. Using proposed nonlinear smeared crack model, nonlinear analysis is performed where the structure is subjected to a large set of scaled and un-scaled ground motions and the maximum responses are extracted for each one and plotted. Based on the results, fragility curves were plotted according to various and possible damages indexes. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and incremental nonlinear analysis. Then, fragility curves were constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Two damage indexes were introduced and compared to one another. The results indicate that the dam has a proper stability under earthquake conditions at MCE level. Moreover, displacement damages index is more conservative and impractical in the fragility analysis than tensional damage index.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.53-59
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• 2013

Several researches have been studied to enhance the seismic performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by application of seismic isolation. If a seismic base isolation system is applied to NPPs, seismic performance of nuclear power plants should be reevaluated considering the soil-structure interaction effect. The seismic fragility analysis method has been used as a quantitative seismic safety evaluation method for the NPP structures and equipment. In this study, the seismic performance of an isolated NPP is evaluated by seismic fragility curves considering the soil-structure interaction effect. The designed seismic isolation is introduced to a containment building of Shin-Kori NPP which is KSNP (Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant), to improve its seismic performance. The seismic analysis is performed considering the soil-structure interaction effect by using the linearized model of seismic isolation with SASSI (System for Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction) program. Finally, the seismic fragility is evaluated based on soil-isolation-structure interaction analysis results.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.39-60
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• 2010

In Turkey, majority of industrial facilities are composed of precast buildings. However, precast buildings have suffered extensive damage during Kocaeli and Duzce (1999) and Adana-Ceyhan (1998) earthquakes. Therefore, in this study, fragilities of existing building stock and damage probabilities of precast buildings were studied. For this purpose, building inventories were prepared and variation of structural parameters was determined by investigating the design project of 65 precast buildings constructed in Denizli, Turkey. Twelve analysis models which reflect the stiffness, strength and ductility properties of building inventory were constructed. After the definition of strain based displacement limits and corresponding damage states for buildings, displacement demands were calculated by using non linear time history analysis. During the analyses 360 strong ground motion records were used. Exceedence ratios of concerned damage limits was calculated by checking the displacement demands and then PGV based fragility curves were constructed. Efficiency of strength, stiffness and ductility properties of existing precast buildings were investigated by comparing the fragility curves. The results have shown that the most effective parameters that govern the damage probabilities of precast buildings are stiffness and ductility. It was also stated that the results of fragility analysis and damage and failure observations performed after Kocaeli and Duzce Earthquakes are compatible.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.701-713
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• 2018

Many bridges in Algeria were constructed without taking into account the seismic effect in the design. The implantation of a new regulation code RPOA-2008 requires a higher reinforcement ratio than with the seismic coefficient method, which is a common feature of the existing bridges. For better perception of the performance bridge piers and evaluation of the risk assessment of existing bridges, fragility analysis is an interesting tool to assess the vulnerability study of these structures. This paper presents a comparative performance of bridge piers designed with the seismic coefficient method and the new RPOA-2008. The performances of the designed bridge piers are assessed using thirty ground motion records and incremental dynamic analysis. Fragility curves for the bridge piers are plotted using probabilistic seismic demand model to perform the seismic vulnerability analysis. The impact of changing the reinforcement strength on the seismic behavior of the designed bridge piers is checked by fragility analysis. The fragility results reveal that the probability of damage with the RPOA-2008 is less and perform well comparing to the conventional design pier.