• Title/Summary/Keyword: forecasting model

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A GIS Based Technique for Analyzing Traffic Accidents (GIS를 이용한 교통사고의 분석 기법 개발)

  • Choi, Kee-Choo;Park, In-Chol;Oh, Sei-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.6 no.1 s.11
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    • pp.35-51
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    • 1998
  • This article aims at presenting a new framework for traffic accident analysis by proposing a new methodology for the management of the accident data and by establishing the relationship between accidents and roadway characteristics within it For the first issue, authors introduced geographic information system (GIS) into the analysis framework of the accident data since it is believed that analysis based on GIS seems to provide more effective information in reducing accidents. Point-based, line-based, and polygon (grid)-based approaches were set of along with concrete examples. Especially, the location-based scores such as localization, specialization coefficients, and Tress score have been added to identify the intensity of certain accident types within study area or grids. The second issue addressed the equation formulation of accident and fatality numbers with roadway characteristics like number of intersections and road length in a grid with a sense that (1) accidents on roadways are the function of the roadway physical characteristics rather than the socio-economical secondary data (2) the equation can be applied to the any 'suggested' area, not just region or nation, and (3) the accident forecasting model should emphasize the accident location itself more than any other factors. Some equations based on those assumption have been derived along with some future research agenda.

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A Study on Data Preprocessing for the Activity-Travel Simulator: A Case of FEATHERS Seoul (활동기반 시뮬레이터 입력 자료의 전처리 방안에 대한 연구: FEATHERS Seoul을 사례로)

  • Cho, Sungjin;Hwang, Jeong Hwan;Bellemans, Tom;Kochan, Bruno;Lee, Won Do;Choi, Keechoo;Joh, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.531-543
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    • 2014
  • Research on activity-based travel demand forecasting and activity-travel simulator has received an international attention for the last two decades. Ways to develop the activity-based simulator may be manifold. It is obvious that importing an existing simulator that has been proven internationally likely reduces the development cost and the risk of failure. By definition of the activity-based approach, however, the details of an activity-based simulator inevitably relies on particular social, economic and cultural characteristics of the society where the simulator is developed. When importing such a simulator from overseas, the researcher should be aware of the importance of tuning the system for the society to which the imported system is applied. There are many potential works on this, including for example the tuning of data structure that is likely different form of the original system. The authors are yet aware of certain research on those. The current paper aims to report the result of transforming the input data for applying the existing activity-travel simulator to Seoul. The paper first introduces FEATHERS that was developed in Belgium having Albatross which is the core of system. FEATHERS Seoul that is under development and modified version of the original FEATHERS is briefly described and the related problems are discussed. The paper then explored to resolve and to alleviate such problems.

Development of Urban Flood Forecasting Model using Statistical Method (통계학적 기법을 이용한 도시홍수 예.경보모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Beum-Hee;Lim, Jong-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.805-809
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    • 2007
  • 최근 도시의 발달은 하상공간에 대한 이용도를 높이는 방향으로 개발이 진행되어가는 추세이며, 하상도로 및 하상주차장의 이용은 이제 도시 내에서 이용 가능한 마지막 여유 공간으로 인식될 정도로 그 의존도가 높아져가고 있다. 그러나 하상공간의 활용도가 높아져갈수록 도시홍수의 발생으로 인한 대피문제가 발생하게 되고 돌발홍수로 인하여 하상도로의 차단 혹은 하상 주차장에 주차된 차량의 소거가 늦어지는 경우 고스란히 피해를 보게 되는 등 그 부작용도 계속 증가되고 있다. 도시홍수의 특성을 살펴보면 국지성 돌발 강우에 의한 유량의 급격한 증가와 짧은 유하시간, 작은 유역면적 등에 의하여 주요 예보지점까지의 도달시간이 매우 짧아 수문학적 홍수예측 모형을 이용하여 홍수예측 업무를 수행하는데 선행시간을 충분히 확보할 수 없다는 단점을 지니고 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기존의 하천시스템에 대한 설계 등을 목적으로 하여 모형의 적용을 통한 시뮬레이션 기법을 적용하고 이를 통하여 홍수 예경보를 발령하기에는 선행시간의 확보(대피시간의 확보)라는 측면에서 상당한 어려움을 지닐 수 있으므로 시시각각으로 측정되는 실시간 수위측정 자료 및 실시간 강우자료를 이용하여 모형의 수행과정을 생략하고 하천의 수위변동을 직접 예측하고 대피할 수 있는 시나리오 기반의 수문모형을 개발하였다. SPSS를 사용한 통계학적 모형을 대전광역시 3대 하천에 대하여 적용한 결과 예측자료가 실측자료를 고수위 및 저수위 부근에서 정확히 모의하지 못하는 경향이 나타났으나 경계 및 위험수위를 설정하고 이를 넘어가는 시점에 대한 예측을 하는 홍수경보 시점 예측에는 효율적인 적용성을 나타내었다.씬 간편하면서도 정확도가 높아서, 환경방사성 스트론튬의 정량분석에 적절히 사용될 수 있다.e form of Jones matrix, which allows a new interpretation in the conversion efficiency of the thin-film optical waveguides.있다는 장점이 있었다. 따라서 소아에서 복막투석도관 수술 시 복강경적 방법을 이용하는 것이 효율적인 복막 투석을 위해 유용하다고 생각된다.상부 방광천자에 비해 민감도 59.5%(25/42), 특이도 86.6%(13/15)였고 위양성률 13.3%(2/15), 위음성률 40.5%(17/42) 로 정확도가 낮았다. 결론 : 소변을 가리지 못하는 영유아에서 요로 감염을 진단하기 위해서는 도뇨관 채뇨에 비해 초음파 감시하 치골상부 방광천자가 정확하고 안전한 채뇨법으로 권장되어야 한다고 생각한다.應裝置) 및 운용(運用)에 별다른 어려움이 없고, 내열성(耐熱性)이 강(强)하므로 쉬운 조건하(條件下)에서 경제적(經濟的)으로 공업적(工業的) 이용(利用)에 유리(有利)하다고 판단(判斷)되어진다.reatinine은 함량이 적었다. 관능검사결과(官能檢査結果) 자가소화(自家消化)시킨 크릴간장은 효소(酵素)처리한 것이나 재래식 콩간장에 비하여 품질 면에서 손색이 없고 저장성(貯藏性)이 좋은 크릴간장을 제조(製造)할 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.에 착안하여 침전시 슬러지층과 상등액의 온도차를 측정하여 대사열량의 발생량을 측정하고 슬러지의 활성을 측정할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다.enin과 Rhaponticin의 작용(作用)에 의(依)한 것이며,

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A Study on the Statistical Characteristics and Numerical Hindcasts of Storm Waves in East Sea (동해 폭풍파랑의 통계적 특성과 파랑 후측모의 실험에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Hwusub;Kang, Tae-Soon;Ahn, Kyungmo;Jeong, Weon Mu;Kim, Tae-Rim;Lee, Dong Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.81-95
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    • 2014
  • In the present study, the statistical analysis on the storm waves in the East Sea have been carried out, and the several storm waves were reproduced by the modified WAM as a first step for the accurate and prompt forecasting and warning against the swell waves in East Sea. According to the present study, the occurrences of the storm waves from the North were the most probable, while the waves from the Northeast were most frequently observed. It was found that the significant wave heights of storm waves from the North and Northern northeast were larger than those of storm waves from the Northeast. But due to long fetch distance, the significant wave periods of storm waves from the Northesast were longer than those of North and Northern northeast. In addition to the wave analysis, the numerical experiments for the storm waves in East Sea were carried out using the modified WAM, and three periods of storm waves in 2013 were calculated. The numerical results were well agreed with wave measurements. However the numerical simulation results in shallow water region showed lower accuracies compared to deep water, which might be due to lower resolution of wind field and bottom topography caused by large grid size, 5 minute, adopted in the present study. Overall computational efficiency of the modified WAM found to be excellent compared to original WAM. It is because the modified WAM adopted the implicit scheme, thereby the present model performed 10 time faster than original WAM in computation time.

Labor market forecasts for Information and communication construction business (정보통신공사업 인력수급차 분석 및 전망)

  • Kwak, Jeong Ho;Kwun, Tae Hee;Oh, Dong-Suk;Kim, Jung-Woo
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2015
  • In this era of smart convergent environment wherein all industries are converged on ICT infrastructure and industries and cultures come together, the information and communication construction business is becoming more important. For the information and communication construction business to continue growing, it is very important to ensure that technical manpower is stably supplied. To date, however, there has been no theoretically methodical analysis of manpower supply and demand in the information and communications construction business. The need for the analysis of manpower supply and demand has become even more important after the government announced the road map for the development of construction business in December 2014 to seek measures to strengthen the human resources capacity based on the mid- to long-term manpower supply and demand analysis. As such, this study developed the manpower supply and demand forecast model for the information and communications construction business and presented the result of manpower supply and demand analysis. The analysis suggested that an overdemand situation would arise since the number of graduates of technical colleges decreased beginning 2007 because of fewer students entering technical colleges and due to the restructuring and reform of departments. In conclusion, it cited the need for the reeducation of existing manpower, continuous upgrading of professional development in the information and communications construction business, and provision of various policy incentives.

Stock prediction using combination of BERT sentiment Analysis and Macro economy index

  • Jang, Euna;Choi, HoeRyeon;Lee, HongChul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2020
  • The stock index is used not only as an economic indicator for a country, but also as an indicator for investment judgment, which is why research into predicting the stock index is ongoing. The task of predicting the stock price index involves technical, basic, and psychological factors, and it is also necessary to consider complex factors for prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the model for predicting the stock price index by selecting and reflecting technical and auxiliary factors that affect the fluctuation of the stock price according to the stock price. Most of the existing studies related to this are forecasting studies that use news information or macroeconomic indicators that create market fluctuations, or reflect only a few combinations of indicators. In this paper, this we propose to present an effective combination of the news information sentiment analysis and various macroeconomic indicators in order to predict the US Dow Jones Index. After Crawling more than 93,000 business news from the New York Times for two years, the sentiment results analyzed using the latest natural language processing techniques BERT and NLTK, along with five macroeconomic indicators, gold prices, oil prices, and five foreign exchange rates affecting the US economy Combination was applied to the prediction algorithm LSTM, which is known to be the most suitable for combining numeric and text information. As a result of experimenting with various combinations, the combination of DJI, NLTK, BERT, OIL, GOLD, and EURUSD in the DJI index prediction yielded the smallest MSE value.

Study on the Dextran and the Inner Structure of Jeung-Pyun (Korea Rice Cake) on Adding Oligosaccharide (올리고당 첨가 증편 발효 중 Dextran 형성과 증편의 내부구조에 관한 연구)

  • 이은아;우경자
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2002
  • This study was carried out in order to investigate dextran formation and internal structure during fermentation of the oligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun. The dextran and sugar reducing contents of Jeung-Pyun batter and the specific volume and the internal structure of Jeung-Pyun were analyzed as a function of fermentation time. The specific volume of Jeung-Pyun peaked at the 7th hour of fermentation. The dextran content of Jeung-Pyun batters peaked at the 7~13th hour of fermentation, and Fructooligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun had the least peak value. Reducing sugar content of Jeung-Pyun batters slowly decreased as fermentation progressed. From the air pore size and distribution of Jeung-Pyun observed by SEM, the sucrose Jeung-Pyun fermented for 3~7 hours and oligosaccharide one fermented for 7 hours were judged as the best. It was concluded that dextran may be formed by fermentation of oligosaccharides as well as sucrose and dextran has a significant role on the volume expansion of Jeung-Pyun.

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Evaluation of Long-Term Seasonal Predictability of Heatwave over South Korea Using PNU CGCM-WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 남한 지역 폭염 장기 계절 예측성 평가)

  • Kim, Young-Hyun;Kim, Eung-Sup;Choi, Myeong-Ju;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.671-687
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    • 2019
  • This study evaluates the long-term seasonal predictability of summer (June, July and August) heatwaves over South Korea using 30-year (1989~2018) Hindcast data of the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) chain. Heatwave indices such as Number of Heatwave days (HWD), Heatwave Intensity (HWI) and Heatwave Warning (HWW) are used to explore the long-term seasonal predictability of heatwaves. The prediction skills for HWD, HWI, and HWW are evaluated in terms of the Temporal Correlation Coefficient (TCC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Skill Scores such as Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Hit Rate (HR). The spatial distributions of daily maximum temperature simulated by WRF are similar overall to those simulated by NCEP-R2 and PNU CGCM. The WRF tends to underestimate the daily maximum temperature than observation because the lateral boundary condition of WRF is PNU CGCM. According to TCC, RMSE and Skill Score, the predictability of daily maximum temperature is higher in the predictions that start from the February and April initial condition. However, the PNU CGCM-WRF chain tends to overestimate HWD, HWI and HWW compared to observations. The TCCs for heatwave indices range from 0.02 to 0.31. The RMSE, HR and HSS values are in the range of 7.73 to 8.73, 0.01 to 0.09 and 0.34 to 0.39, respectively. In general, the prediction skill of the PNU CGCM-WRF chain for heatwave indices is highest in the predictions that start from the February and April initial condition and is lower in the predictions that start from January and March. According to TCC, RMSE and Skill Score, the predictability is more influenced by lead time than by the effects of topography and/or terrain feature because both HSS and HR varies in different leads over the whole region of South Korea.

Establishment of Inundation Probability DB for Forecasting the Farmland Inundation Risk Using Weather Forecast Data (기상예보 기반 농촌유역 침수 위험도 예보를 위한 침수 확률 DB 구축)

  • Kim, Si-Nae;Jun, Sang-Min;Lee, Hyun-Ji;Hwang, Soon-Ho;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2020
  • In order to reduce damage from farmland inundation caused by recent climate change, it is necessary to predict the risk of farmland inundation accurately. Inundation modeling should be performed by considering multiple time distributions of possible rainfalls, as digital forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration is provided on a six-hour basis. As building multiple inputs and creating inundation models take a lot of time, it is necessary to shorten the forecast time by building a data base (DB) of farmland inundation probability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a DB of farmland inundation probability in accordance with forecasted rainfalls. In this study, historical data of the digital forecasts was collected and used for time division. Inundation modeling was performed 100 times for each rainfall event. Time disaggregation of forecasted rainfall was performed by applying the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which uses consistency of fractal characteristics to six-hour rainfall data. To analyze the inundation of farmland, the river level was simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The level of farmland was calculated by applying a simulation technique based on the water balance equation. The inundation probability was calculated by extracting the number of inundation occurrences out of the total number of simulations, and the results were stored in the DB of farmland inundation probability. The results of this study can be used to quickly predict the risk of farmland inundation, and to prepare measures to reduce damage from inundation.

Estimating an Optimal Scale of a Railway Station with Non-Passengers (철도 비승차 이용객을 고려한 역사 시설물별 적정규모 산정방안)

  • Oh, Tae ho;Lee, Seon ha;Kang, Hee up;Insigne, Maria Sharlene L.;Lee, Sang Jae
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.76-91
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    • 2017
  • The Area of a domestic railway station is designed based on the 4-step traffic demand forecasting model with the average daily passenger count as one of its parameter. However, nowadays, due to increasing rate of railway station's function, the non-passengers are increasing. In order to consider those non-passengers who aren't using trains, assumed volume are added to the average daily passenger count of station to estimate the area, but the criteria being applied has no concrete basis. Therefore, this study aimed to recalculate the increasing non-passenger rate based on actual survey data of station users in any type of railway station to obtain the optimum area. Subsequently, the the design area was performed through pedestrian simulation. According to the result of the simulation, it was found that the total space of the exciting railway stations can be reduced up to 45% and will still satisfy the level of service(LOS) requirement.