• Title/Summary/Keyword: flood forecasting model

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Development of a Raster-based Two-dimensional Flood Inundation Model (래스터 기반의 2차원 홍수범람 모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Gi-Ha;Lee, Seung-Soo;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2010
  • The past researches on flood inundation simulation mainly focused on development of numerical models based on unstructured mesh networks to improve model performances. However, despite the accurate simulation results, such models are not suitable for real-time flood inundation forecasting due to a huge computational burden in terms of geographic data processing. In addition, even though various types of vector and raster data are available to be compatible with flood inundation models for post-processes such as flood hazard mapping and flood inundation risk analysis, the unstructured mesh-based models are not effective to fully use such information due to data incommensurability. Therefore, this study aims to develop a raster-based two-dimensional inundation model; it guarantees computational efficiency because of direct application of DEM for flood inundation modeling and also has a good compatibility with various types of raster data, compared to a commercial model such as FLUMEN. We applied the model to simulate the BaekSan levee break in the Nam river during a flood period from August 10 to 13, 2002. The simulation results showed a good agreement with the field-surveyed inundation area and were also very similar with results from the FLUMEN. Moreover, the model provided physically-acceptable velocity vectors with respect to inundating and returning flows due to the difference of water level between channel and lowland.

Analysis of Flood Characteristics for A Small Stream in Apartment Complex of Urban Watershed (도시 유역 아파트 단지내 소하천의 홍수특성 분석)

  • Kwak, Jae Won;Ahn, Kyoung Soo;Park, Do Ho;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2007
  • We analyzed flood runoff and flood characteristics of an small urban river basin which is in an apartment complex in Yewol-Dong, Buchun-Si, Gyunggi-Do. This discharge normally flows a little by intercepting sewer and interception of pollutants. However in flood period it looks like risk of flood damage by high flood discharge and increase of flood elevation. After appling the analysis model on urban runoff, using the GIS data and cross section at the basin, and then we studied the degree of flood control safety at the basin through forecasting flood elevation. Eventually, there are the flood risks from the River structure for Multi-functional Urban river as well as the river safety. As flood runoff analysis in urban, we need to consider risks which are drainage depth and other.

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Development and Verification of Inundation Modeling with Urban Flooding Caused by the Surcharge of Storm Sewers (도시배수체계와 연계한 내수침수모형의 개발 및 검증)

  • Kim, Ji-Sung;Han, Kun-Yeun;Lee, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.12 s.173
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    • pp.1013-1022
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    • 2006
  • Urban flooding is usually caused by the surcharge of storm sewers. For this reason, previous studies on urban flooding are mainly concentrated on the simulation of urban drainage systems. However these approaches that find the pipes which have insufficient drainage capacity are very approximate and unreasonable ways in establishing both flood prevention and flood-loss reduction planning. In this study, a two-dimensional model linked the existing ILLUDAS model is developed to calculate the accurate and resonable solution about urban flood inundation and it is verified by using the simulation of July 2001 flood in Seoul. In the urban area with a small difference of ground elevations, the two-dimensional flood propagation phases must be considered to make a accurate analysis for inundated area and depth. The result of this study can be used to construct fundamental data for a flood control plan and establish a urban flood forecasting/warning system.

Study on Streamflow Prediction Using Artificial Intelligent Technique (인공지능기법을 이용한 하천유출량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • An, Seung Seop;Sin, Seong Il
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.611-618
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    • 2004
  • The Neural Network Models which mathematically interpret human thought processes were applied to resolve the uncertainty of model parameters and to increase the model's output for the streamflow forecast model. In order to test and verify the flood discharge forecast model eight flood events observed at Kumho station located on the midstream of Kumho river were chosen. Six events of them were used as test data and two events for verification. In order to make an analysis the Levengerg-Marquart method was used to estimate the best parameter for the Neural Network model. The structure of the model was composed of five types of models by varying the number of hidden layers and the number of nodes of hidden layers. Moreover, a logarithmic-sigmoid varying function was used in first and second hidden layers, and a linear function was used for the output. As a result of applying Neural Networks models for the five models, the N10-6model was considered suitable when there is one hidden layer, and the Nl0-9-5model when there are two hidden layers. In addition, when all the Neural Network models were reviewed, the Nl0-9-5model, which has two hidden layers, gave the most preferable results in an actual hydro-event.

Hydrodynamic Analysis at Nakdong River Confluences (낙동강 주요 합류부에서의 동역학적 수리해석)

  • Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Ji Sung;Yang, Seung Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.908-911
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the applicability of the two dimensional model in natural rivers. In this study, two dimensional unite element model, SMS, is used to simulate a complex flow along with the sediment movements in the natural river. The RMA-2 model embeded in SMS is used to simulate flow phenomena and SED-2D model is employed to simulate sediment transport. The model is applied to the confluence zone of the Gam River and mouth of Nakdong River. For model calibration, the result of the unsteady flow analysis is compared with the Typhoon 'Rusa' data. In addition, the runoff analysis was conducted for the determination of the project flood and the flood forecasting. The simulation results presented the characteristics of two dimensional flow with velocity vector and flow depth. The sediment transport characteristics are shown in terms of sediment concentration as well as bed elevation change. Accordingly, the SMS model in this study turned out to be very effective tool for the simulation of the hydrodynamic characteristics under the various flow conditions and corresponding sediment transports in natural rivers.

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Evaluation for Applicability of GIS Based Multi-Directional Flow Allocation Model (GIS기반 다방향 흐름 분배 모형의 적용성 검토)

  • Choi, Seung-Yong;Lee, Won-Ha;Han, Kun-Yeun;Kim, Keuk-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.12-31
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of GIS based multi-directional flow allocation model. In order to evaluate the suggested model in this study, it was applied to real watersheds, Pyeongchang and Soyang river basin. The simulation results were compared with observed values, and showed good agreements. The improvement of accuracy and reduction of simulation time were carried out by applying multi-directional flow allocation. Accordingly, the applied methodologies presented in this study will be used to predict accurate runoff, which plays a major role in integrated flood management. If this model is combined with the techniques of rainfall forecasting, it will contribute to the real-time flood forecasting and warning in the future.

Development Strategy of Smart Urban Flood Management System based on High-Resolution Hydrologic Radar (고정밀 수문레이더 기반 스마트 도시홍수 관리시스템 개발방안)

  • YU, Wan-Sik;HWANG, Eui-Ho;CHAE, Hyo-Sok;KIM, Dae-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the frequency of heavy rainfall is increasing due to the effects of climate change, and heavy rainfall in urban areas has an unexpected and local characteristic. Floods caused by localized heavy rains in urban areas occur rapidly and frequently, so that life and property damage is also increasing. It is crucial how fast and precise observations can be made on successful flood management in urban areas. Local heavy rainfall is predominant in low-level storms, and the present large-scale radars are vulnerable to low-level rainfall detection and observations. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a new urban flood forecasting system to minimize urban flood damage by upgrading the urban flood response system and improving observation and forecasting accuracy by quickly observing and predicting the local storm in urban areas. Currently, the WHAP (Water Hazard Information Platform) Project is promoting the goal of securing new concept water disaster response technology by linking high resolution hydrological information with rainfall prediction and urban flood model. In the WHAP Project, local rainfall detection and prediction, urban flood prediction and operation technology are being developed based on high-resolution small radar for observing the local rainfall. This study is expected to provide more accurate and detailed urban flood warning system by enabling high-resolution observation of urban areas.

Improvement of Hydrologic Flood Forecasting Model for Flood Forecasting System in the Sapgyocheon (삽교천홍수예보시스템의 수문학적 홍수예측모형 개선)

  • Yeo, Kyu-Dong;Song, Jae-Hyun;Yoon, Kwang-Seok;HwangBo, Jong-Gu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.345-349
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    • 2007
  • 삽교천 홍수예보시스템은 1999년에 개발되어 현재까지 운영되고 있으나, 개발 이후 유역특성의 변화를 반영한 모형 개선이 이루어지지 않았고, 삽교천 하구둑의 영향을 고려한 모형은 개발되어 있지 않은 실정이다. 이 지역 중에서 특히 천안/아산지역은 급격한 인구증가와 산업화 및 도시화에 의해 면적당 자산의 고도화가 증가하며, 이에 따라 홍수시 피해잠재능은 점점 증가하고 있는 상황이다. 홍수예보 정확도 향상을 위하여 삽교천 유역내 수위관측소 증설에 따른 소유역을 재분할하여 유역특성변화에 따른 수문학적 모형을 재구축하였다. 따라서, 삽교천유역에 신설 및 T/M화된 수문관측소에 대한 소유역 분할과 저류함수법을 이용하기 위한 저류상수를 산정하기위해 기존의 일반 종이지도로 제작된 지형도(1:50,000), 녹지자연도, 지질도, 개략토양도 등을 이용하는 대신 수치지도를 이용하여 저류상수를 산정하였다. 변화된 유역 조건을 가지고 삽교천 유역의 전체 유역 및 하도유출계산을 수행한 후, 측정 결과가 있는 지점의 수문곡선과 비교하여 모형상수가 적절히 산정되었는지 검토하고, 개선된 모형상수를 제시하였다. 또한 홍수예보지점인 원평지점의 선행예보시간을 확보하기 위하여 원평지점 상류의 예당저수지 방류량과 원평지점 수위간의 통계학적모형을 구축하였고, 2시간 이상의 선행예보시간을 확보하였다.

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Runoff Analysis on the Physically-Based Conceptual Time-Continuous Runoff Model (물리적.개념적 연속 유출모형에 의한 유출해석)

  • 배덕효;조원철
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.193-202
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    • 1995
  • The subjective research attempts to apply a rainfall-runoff model capable of considering time-variation of soil water contents which are highly correlated to the river flows on the qpqyungchang river basin and to evaluate its performance for flow forecasting. The model used in this study is a physically-based conceptual time-continuous model, which is composed of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model and the nonlinear multiple conceptual reservoirs model. The daily precipitation and evaporation data for 7 years and for 3 years were used for the parameter estimation and the model verification, respectively. As a result, the flows including a significant flood event were well simulated, and the cross-correlation coefficient between observed flows and computed flows for the verification periods was 0.87, but in general computed flows were underestimated for the low-flow periods. Also, the effects of precipitation and soil water content to the river flows were analysed for the flood and the drought.

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Applicability of a Multiplicative Random Cascade Model for Disaggregation of Forecasted Rainfalls (예보강우 시간분해를 위한 Multiplicative Cascade 모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Daeha;Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Kang, Moon Seong;Lee, Kyung-do
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.5
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2016
  • High resolution rainfall data at 1-hour or a finer scale are essential for reliable flood analysis and forecasting; nevertheless, many observations, forecasts, and climate projections are still given at coarse temporal resolutions. This study aims to evaluate a chaotic method for disaggregation of 6-hour rainfall data sets so as to apply operational 6-hour rainfall forecasts of the Korean Meteorological Association to flood models. We computed parameters of a state-of-the-art multiplicative random cascade model with two combinations of cascades, namely uniform splitting and diversion, using rainfall observations at Seoul station, and compared statistical performance. We additionally disaggregated 6-hour rainfall time series at 58 stations with the uniform splitting and evaluated temporal transferability of the parameters and changes in multifractal properties. Results showed that the uniform splitting outperformed the diversion in reproduction of observed statistics, and hence is better to be used for disaggregation of 6-hour rainfall forecasts. We also found that multifractal properties of rainfall observations has adequate temporal consistency with an indication of gradually increasing rainfall intensity across South Korea.