Study on Streamflow Prediction Using Artificial Intelligent Technique

The Neural Network Models which mathematically interpret human thought processes were applied to resolve the uncertainty of model parameters and to increase the model's output for the streamflow forecast model. In order to test and verify the flood discharge forecast model eight flood events observed at Kumho station located on the midstream of Kumho river were chosen. Six events of them were used as test data and two events for verification. In order to make an analysis the Levengerg-Marquart method was used to estimate the best parameter for the Neural Network model. The structure of the model was composed of five types of models by varying the number of hidden layers and the number of nodes of hidden layers. Moreover, a logarithmic-sigmoid varying function was used in first and second hidden layers, and a linear function was used for the output. As a result of applying Neural Networks models for the five models, the N10-6model was considered suitable when there is one hidden layer, and the Nl0-9-5model when there are two hidden layers. In addition, when all the Neural Network models were reviewed, the Nl0-9-5model, which has two hidden layers, gave the most preferable results in an actual hydro-event.

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