• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.1-15
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• 2016

This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.57-83
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• 2006

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the efficiency and productivity change and inefficiency cause of the korean non-life insurance companies of the before($1993{\sim}1996$) and after($1998{\sim}2004$) of IMF. we use DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model to measure company efficiency and MPI(Malmquist productivity indices) to measure company productivity change and Tobit regression to analyze inefficiency cause. we utilize ten non-life insurance companies in korea and the time-series data for eleven from 1993 to 2004 except 1997. The empirical results show the following findings. First, total cost efficiency shows that the after of IMF decrease of 3.7% over the before of IMF and MPI change indicates that the after of IMF increase 7.7% over the before IMF. Second, the results of Tobit regression to analysis the cause of inefficiency show that total cost efficiency is positively related invested assets, acquisition expenses ratio, collection expenses ratio and is negatively related solicitors ratio, personnel expenses ratio, land & buildings expenses ratio, loss ratio, net operating expenses ratio. Especially inefficiency of small-to-mid sized companies is main cause of total cost efficiency of non-life insurance companies in korea. Small-to-mid sized companies endeavored various aspects of business strategies.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.81-111
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• 2007

The agency relationship between managers and shareholders has the potential to influence decision-making in the firm which in turn potentially impacts on firm characteristics such as value and leverage. Using an agency framework, we examine the relation between ownership structure and capital structure during post-IMF period. We used the balanced panel data for 378 korean listed companies during the 1999-2005. The panel data sets consist of time-series observation on each of 378 cross-sectional units. The results indicate a non-linear U-shaped relation between the level of managerial share ownership and leverage with the relation reaching a minimum at 58.48 per cent of management share ownership. As managerial share ownership increase from a low level, managers have incentive to reduce the debt level for decreasing the financial risk, resulting in a lower lever of debt. However, when corporate managers hold a significant proportion of a firm's shares, managers have incentive to increase the debt level for leverage effects, resulting in a higher lever of debt.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.53-60
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• 2015

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the importance of the slope and curvature of the volatility curve implied in option prices in the KOSPI 200 options index. A number of studies examine the implied volatility curve, however, these usually focus on cross-sectional characteristics such as the volatility smile. Contrary to previous studies, we focus on time-series characteristics; we investigate correlation dynamics among slope, curvature, and level of the implied volatility curve to capture market information embodied therein. Our study may provide useful implications for investors to utilize current market expectations in managing portfolios dynamically and efficiently. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical purpose, we gathered daily KOSPI200 index option prices executed at 2:50 pm in the Korean Exchange distribution market during the period of January 2, 2004 and January 31, 2012. In order to measure slope and curvature of the volatility curve, we use approximated delta distance; the slope is defined as the difference of implied volatilities between 15 delta call options and 15 delta put options; the curvature is defined as the difference between out-of-the-money (OTM) options and at-the-money (ATM) options. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method to verify correlations among level, slope, and curvature of the implied volatility curve with statistical support. Results - We find that slope as well as curvature is positively correlated with volatility level, implying that put option prices increase in a downward market. Further, we find that curvature and slope are positively correlated; however, the relation is weakened at deep moneyness. The results lead us to examine whether slope decreases monotonically as the delta increases, and it is verified with statistical significance that the deeper the moneyness, the lower the slope. It enables us to infer that when volatility surges above a certain level due to any tail risk, investors would rather take long positions in OTM call options, expecting market recovery in the near future. Conclusions - Our results are the evidence of the investor's increasing hedging demand for put options when downside market risks are expected. Adding to this, the slope and curvature of the volatility curve may provide important information regarding the timing of market recovery from a nosedive. For financial product distributors, using the dynamic relation among the three key indicators of the implied volatility curve might be helpful in enhancing profit and gaining trust and loyalty. However, it should be noted that our implications are limited since we do not provide rigorous evidence for the predictability power of volatility curves. Meaning, we need to verify whether the slope and curvature of the volatility curve have statistical significance in predicting the market trough. As one of the verifications, for instance, the performance of trading strategy based on information of slope and curvature could be tested. We reserve this for the future research.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.41-59
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• 2021

This study reviews theoretical considerations and past studies about real estate prices, macroeconomic variables, and real estate policies. Monthly data from January 2003 to June 2021 are used, and a VEC model, the most widely used multivariate time series analysis method, is employed for analysis. Through the model, the effects of macroeconomic variables and real estate regulatory policies on real estate prices in Seoul are analyzed. Findings are summarized as follows. First, macroeconomic variables such as money supply and interest rates do not have a significant impact on Seoul's apartment prices. Due to the high demand for housing and insufficient supply, there is a demand for buying a home regardless of macroeconomic booms or recessions. Second, tax and financial regulatory policies have an initial impact on the rise in apartment prices in Seoul, and their influence diminishes over time. Third, anti-speculation zones are expected to decrease apartment prices through the suppression of demand. However, these zones cause a rise in apartment prices. This could be understood as a lock-in effect due to the strengthening of capital gains tax. Fourth, the price ceiling did not decrease apartment prices. These findings propose that, in Seoul, where demand is high and supply is insufficient, the supply of high-quality and sufficient housing should be prioritized over various regulations such as tax regulations, financial regulations, anti-speculation zones, and price caps. Moreover, the findings provide an implication that city-specific real estate policies should be implemented for Seoul rather than regulation-oriented approaches in public policy.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.925-937
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• 2008

In this study, we considered the clustering analysis for stock return traded in the stock market. Most of financial time-series data, for instance, stock price and exchange rate have conditional heterogeneous variability depending on time, and, hence, are not properly applied to the autoregressive moving-average(ARMA) model with assumption of constant variance. Moreover, the variability is font and center for stock investors as well as academic researchers. So, this paper focuses on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic(GARCH) model which is known as a solution for capturing the conditional variance(or volatility). We define the metrics for similarity of unconditional volatility and for homogeneity of model structure, and, then, evaluate the performances of the metrics. In real application, we do clustering analysis in terms of volatility and structure with stock return of the 11 Korean companies measured for the latest three years.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.341-346
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• 2022

Due to global warming and abnormal climate, the frequency and damage of floods are increasing, and the number of people exposed to flood-prone areas has increased by 25% compared to 2000. Floods cause huge financial and human losses, and in order to reduce the losses caused by floods, it is necessary to predict the flood in advance and decide to evacuate quickly. This paper proposes a flood risk determination model using a CNN-based classification model so that timely evacuation decisions can be made using rainfall and water level data, which are key data for flood prediction. By comparing the results of the CNN-based classification model proposed in this paper and the DNN-based classification model, it was confirmed that it showed better performance. Through this, it is considered that it can be used as an initial study to determine the risk of flooding, determine whether to evacuate, and make an evacuation decision at the optimal time.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.41-75
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of Korean media on the topic of archives & records management based on time-series analysis. In this study, from January, 1999 to June, 2018, 4,680 news articles on archives & records management topics were extracted from BigKinds. In order to examine the characteristics of the media coverage on the archives & records management topic, this study was analyzed to the difference of the press coverage by period, subject, and type of the media. In addition, this study was conducted word-frequency based content analysis and semantic network analysis to investigate the content characteristics of media on the subject. Based on these results, this study was analyzed to the differences of media coverage by period, subject, and type of media. As a result, the news in the field of records management showed that there was a difference in the amount of news coverage and news contents by period, subject, and type of media. The amount of news coverage began to increase after the Presidential Records Management Act was enacted in 2007, and the largest amount of news was reported in 2013. Daily newspapers and financial newspapers reported the largest amount of news. As a result of analyzing news reports, during the first 10 years after 1999, news topics were formed around the issues arising from the application and diffusion process of the concept of archives & records management. However, since the enactment of the Presidential Records Management Act, archives & records management has become a major factor in political and social issues, and a large amount of political and social news has been reported.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.8
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• pp.41-50
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• 2018

Purpose - As an important participant in the financial markets, the commercial bank will be impacted by the interest rate marketization. Owing to the special condition of China, this paper tries to explore the impact of operating mechanisms between interest rate marketization and the profitability of the commercial Bank. Research design, data and methodology - This paper applies time series data from 2005 to 2016. Due to the short period of time series, autocorrelation often occurs. Therefore, the fully modified least squares(FMOLS) will be used to conduct an empirical analysis. The reason is that it can move off the autocorrelation between variables and disturbance term. And FMOLS also can make estimated cointegrating parameters closed to normal distribution. More importantly, in order to avoid spurious regressions, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test will be used to verify the stationarity of all variables. The total return of asset is treated as the profitability of commercial bank. The net interest spread is treated as a measurement of interest rate marketization. Both are regarded as dependent variables. The non-interest income or gross revenues and impaired loans or gross loans are treated as independent variables. The sixteen representative listed commercial banks are divided into three categories (state-owned, share-holding and city-owned) to conduct an estimation. Results - Via empirical analysis, the findings show that the net interest spread has a positive effect on the profitability of the commercial bank. More specifically, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.157% increase in the profitability of state-owned commercial bank, 0.269% increase in the profitability of share-holding commercial bank and 0.263% increase in the profitability of city-owned commercial bank. If regarding the sixteen listed commercial city as a whole, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.267% increase in the profitability of the commercial bank. Conclusions - As the interest rate marketization, the importance of interest rate on the profitability of commercial bank has become more and more significant. The empirical evidences also prove that the net interest spread can bring about the change of the commercial bank's profitability. Therefore, policy-makers of commercial banks should fully understand the operating mechanism between them.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.25-46
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• 2016

In order to newly expand and define the concept of "strategic servitization" based on Industry 4.0, this study tried to evaluate the existing status of domestic and foreign servitized manufacturing and investigated the servitization cases of some leading overseas companies. In addition, we chose 250 samples of manufacturing firms listed on KOSDAQ and collected a vast amount of data regarding servitized manufacturing, such as the current status about new businesses, profit model, and financial fluctuations of each company. Based on these data, we classified the main types of manufacturing-service convergence into a $2{\times}2$ framework and derived a new strategic servitization model for each type of signature. Furthermore, we divided the sample corporations into three groups, which are pure manufacturer, servitized firm, and strategic servitized firm, and through the mutual comparison of the real sales amounts and the estimated sales amounts by time-series extrapolation analysis, we statistically proved that the service sales of strategic servitized firms give positive impacts on ROA when compared with those of the other two groups. Finally, we selected 12 leading domestic strategic-servitized firms, interviewed them in depth, and not only organized the issues during this process and their solutions by categories but also suggested the policy demands for strategic servitization.