• Title/Summary/Keyword: financial machine learning

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The Prediction of Cryptocurrency Prices Using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence based on Deep Learning (설명 가능한 인공지능과 CNN을 활용한 암호화폐 가격 등락 예측모형)

  • Taeho Hong;Jonggwan Won;Eunmi Kim;Minsu Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.129-148
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    • 2023
  • Bitcoin is a blockchain technology-based digital currency that has been recognized as a representative cryptocurrency and a financial investment asset. Due to its highly volatile nature, Bitcoin has gained a lot of attention from investors and the public. Based on this popularity, numerous studies have been conducted on price and trend prediction using machine learning and deep learning. This study employed LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), which have shown potential for predictive performance in the finance domain, to enhance the classification accuracy in Bitcoin price trend prediction. XAI(eXplainable Artificial Intelligence) techniques were applied to the predictive model to enhance its explainability and interpretability by providing a comprehensive explanation of the model. In the empirical experiment, CNN was applied to technical indicators and Google trend data to build a Bitcoin price trend prediction model, and the CNN model using both technical indicators and Google trend data clearly outperformed the other models using neural networks, SVM, and LSTM. Then SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to the predictive model to obtain explanations about the output values. Important prediction drivers in input variables were extracted through global interpretation, and the interpretation of the predictive model's decision process for each instance was suggested through local interpretation. The results show that our proposed research framework demonstrates both improved classification accuracy and explainability by using CNN, Google trend data, and SHAP.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

A Study on User Authentication with Smartphone Accelerometer Sensor (스마트폰 가속도 센서를 이용한 사용자 인증 방법 연구)

  • Seo, Jun-seok;Moon, Jong-sub
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1477-1484
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    • 2015
  • With the growth of financial industry with smartphone, interest on user authentication using smartphone has been arisen in these days. There are various type of biometric user authentication techniques, but gait recognition using accelerometer sensor in smartphone does not seem to develop remarkably. This paper suggests the method of user authentication using accelerometer sensor embedded in smartphone. Specifically, calibrate the sensor data from smartphone with 3D-transformation, extract features from transformed data and do principle component analysis, and learn model with using gaussian mixture model. Next, authenticate user data with confidence interval of GMM model. As result, proposed method is capable of user authentication with accelerometer sensor on smartphone as a high degree of accuracy(about 96%) even in the situation that environment control and limitation are minimum on the research.

A Comparative Analysis of the Prediction Models for the Direction of Stock Price Using the Online Company Reviews (기업 리뷰 정보를 활용한 주가 방향 예측 모델 비교 분석)

  • Lim, Yongtaek;Lim, Heuiseok
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2020
  • Most of the stock price prediction research using text mining uses news and SNS data. However, there is a weakness that it is difficult to get honest and vivid information about companies from them. This paper deals with the problem of the prediction for the direction of stock price by doing text mining the online company reviews of internal staff indicating employee satisfaction. The comparative analysis of the prediction models for the direction of stock price showed the prediction model, which adds internal employee reviews, has better performance than those that did not. This paper presents the convergence study using natural language processing in financial engineering. In the field of stock price prediction, This paper pursued a new methodology that used employee satisfaction. In practice, it is expected to provide useful information in the field of forecasting stock price direction.

An intelligent early warning system for forecasting abnormal investment trends of foreign investors (외국인 투자자의 비정상적 중·장기매도성향패턴예측을 위한 지능형 조기경보시스템 구축)

  • Oh, Kyong Joo;Kim, Young Min
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2013
  • At local emerging stock markets such as Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, foreign investors (FI) are recognized as important investment community due to the globalization and deregulation of financial markets. Therefore, it is required to monitor the behavior of FI against a sudden enormous selling stocks for the concerned local governments or private and institutional investors. The main aim of this study is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing a warning signal against the possible massive selling stocks of FI at the market. For this, we suggest machine learning algorithm which predicts the behavior of FI by forecasting future conditions. This study is empirically done for the Korean stock market.

Leakage detection and management in water distribution systems

  • Sangroula, Uchit;Gnawali, Kapil;Koo, KangMin;Han, KukHeon;Yum, KyungTaek
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.160-160
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    • 2019
  • Water is a limited source that needs to be properly managed and distributed to the ever-growing population of the world. Rapid urbanization and development have increased the overall water demand of the world drastically. However, there is loss of billions of liters of water every year due to leakages in water distribution systems. Such water loss means significant financial loss for the utilities as well. World bank estimates a loss of $14 billion annually from wasted water. To address these issues and for the development of efficient and reliable leakage management techniques, high efforts have been made by the researchers and engineers. Over the past decade, various techniques and technologies have been developed for leakage management and leak detection. These include ideas such as pressure management in water distribution networks, use of Advanced Metering Infrastructure, use of machine learning algorithms, etc. For leakage detection, techniques such as acoustic technique, and in recent yeats transient test-based techniques have become popular. Smart Water Grid uses two-way real time network monitoring by utilizing sensors and devices in the water distribution system. Hence, valuable real time data of the water distribution network can be collected. Best results and outcomes may be produced by proper utilization of the collected data in unison with advanced detection and management techniques. Long term reduction in Non Revenue Water can be achieved by detecting, localizing and repairing leakages as quickly and as efficiently as possible. However, there are still numerous challenges to be met and future research works to be conducted in this field.

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Differences and Multi-dimensionality of the Perception of Career Success among Korean Employees: A Topic Modeling Approach (기업근로자 경력성공 인식의 다차원성과 차이: 토픽모델링의 적용)

  • Lee, Jaeeun;Chae, Chungil
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.58-71
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the multi-dimensionality and the differences of the career success that is revealed by the employee's perception. In order to fulfill the research purpose, LDA topic modeling has applied to extract latent topics of career success from 126 Korean employees' open-end survey questionnaires. The extracted latent topics are social recognition, continuing service within an organization, expertise, financial rewards, and pursuing personal meaning. The occurrence probability of each topic was different by individual characteristics such as gender, education, position. Study findings showed there is multi-dimensionality in career success, and there are differences of topic occurrence probability by demographic characteristics. Additionally, this study showed how to apply the recently developed machine learning approach in order to reduce the researcher's bias by adapting the LDA topic modeling to the qualitative open-ended survey data.

A New Method to Detect Anomalous State of Network using Information of Clusters (클러스터 정보를 이용한 네트워크 이상상태 탐지방법)

  • Lee, Ho-Sub;Park, Eung-Ki;Seo, Jung-Taek
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.545-552
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    • 2012
  • The rapid development of information technology is making large changes in our lives today. Also the infrastructure and services are combinding with information technology which predicts another huge change in our environment. However, the development of information technology brings various types of side effects and these side effects not only cause financial loss but also can develop into a nationwide crisis. Therefore, the detection and quick reaction towards these side effects is critical and much research is being done. Intrusion detection systems can be an example of such research. However, intrusion detection systems mostly tend to focus on judging whether particular traffic or files are malicious or not. Also it is difficult for intrusion detection systems to detect newly developed malicious codes. Therefore, this paper proposes a method which determines whether the present network model is normal or abnormal by comparing it with past network situations.

Predicting Default Risk among Young Adults with Random Forest Algorithm (랜덤포레스트 모델을 활용한 청년층 차입자의 채무 불이행 위험 연구)

  • Lee, Jonghee
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.19-34
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    • 2022
  • There are growing concerns about debt insolvency among youth and low-income households. The deterioration in household debt quality among young people is due to a combination of sluggish employment, an increase in student loan burden and an increase in high-interest loans from the secondary financial sector. The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of household debt default among young borrowers in Korea and to predict the factors affecting this possibility. This study utilized the 2021 Household Finance and Welfare Survey and used random forest algorithm to comprehensively analyze factors related to the possibility of default risk among young adults. This study presented the importance index and partial dependence charts of major determinants. This study found that the ratio of debt to assets(DTA), medical costs, household default risk index (HDRI), communication costs, and housing costs the focal independent variables.