• 품질경영학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.43-61
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• 2014

Purpose: This study identifies preventive measures for VOC management by analyzing the causes and effects of factors that contribute to high risk service failure using FMEA on KORAIL VOC data. Methods: Two research methods were used. First, a Risk Priority Number (RPN) was assigned to each KORAIL VOC based on Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Second, multiple regression analysis was run with RPN factors that include severity, occurrence, and detection as the independent variables and customer dissatisfaction as the dependent variable. Results: Multiple regression analysis showed that RPN factors including severity, occurrence, and detection had significantly positive relationship with customer dissatisfaction. Based on these results, an FMEA was performed on VOC categories with high RPN for railroad stations including platform, ticketing, ticket verification, parking, and escalator, and VOC categories with high RPN for trains including entrance doors, cafes, air quality, announcement, and ticket verification. Conclusion: This study has practical implications to service failure management. A priority order using FMEA was established for the list of customer dissatisfactions that should be addressed to actively manage service failure, and strategies for tackling this priority list are offered.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.471-478
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 무인기가 운용 중에 고장이 발생하여 추락함으로써 발생할 수 있는 지상 충돌 위험을 정량적으로 계산하기 위한 지상 충돌 위험 모델을 개발하였다. 지상 충돌 위험 모델은 무인기 고장 확률, 무인기가 지상에 추락하여 사람과 충돌할 확률, 무인기가 사람과 충돌했을 때 인명 피해가 발생할 확률을 이용하여 계산된다. 본 연구에서는 무인기 운용의 지상 충돌 위험을 평가하기 위해 수학적으로 각 확률을 유도하였다. 또한 무인기와의 충돌에 노출되는 인구수를 추정하기 위해 인구 밀도 맵, 건폐율 맵, 차량 교통량 데이터베이스를 활용하였다. 최종적으로 대전에서 두 가지 무인기 경로에 대한 운영을 가정하여 각 무인기 경로에 대한 지상 충돌 위험을 평가하였다.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.342-347
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• 2009

고장모드, 영향 및 임계분석(FMECA)은 시스템의 구성요소가 갖는 잠재적인 고장모드와 각 고장모드가 시스템에 미치는 영향을 평가하는 도구로 활용된다. 일반적으로 FMECA는 관련 전문가들의 의견에 따라 고장모드의 심각도와 치명도를 평가하여 이를 위험도 매트릭스의 양축으로 나타냄으로써 중요한 고장모드에 대한 분석을 수행한다. 그러나 이러한 절차는 평가가 전문가의 주관에 의해 이루어져 결과에 불확실성이 포함될 수밖에 없다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 최소절단집(MCS)와 퍼지이론을 이용한 새로운 FMECA 절차를 제안한다. 심각도 평가에 있어서는 MCS를 이용함으로써 객관적인 구조적 중요도를 평가할 수 있게 하였고, 치병도의 평가에서는 설비의 대표적인 고장률을 이용하였다. 그리고 두 지수를 종합하기 위해 퍼지 전문가 시스템을 구성하여 종합적인 위험도를 평가하였다.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.295-300
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• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significant]y reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.207-217
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• 2020

Slope reliability analysis and risk assessment for spatially variable soils under rainfall infiltration are important subjects but they have not been well addressed. This lack of study may in part be due to the multiple and diverse evaluation indexes and the low computational efficiency of Monte-Carlo simulations. To remedy this, this paper proposes a highly efficient computational method for investigating random field problems for slopes. First, the probability density evolution method (PDEM) is introduced. This method has high computational efficiency and does not need the tens of thousands of numerical simulation samples required by other methods. Second, the influence of rainfall on slope reliability is investigated, where the reliability is calculated from based on the safety factor curves during the rainfall. Finally, the uncertainty of the sliding mass for the slope random field problem is analyzed. Slope failure consequences are considered to be directly correlated with the sliding mass. Calculations showed that the mass that slides is smaller than the potential sliding mass (shallow surface sliding in rainfall). Sliding mass-based risk assessment is both needed and feasible for engineered slope design. The efficient PDEM is recommended for problems requiring lengthy calculations such as random field problems coupled with rainfall infiltration.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2006

압력설비를 안전하고 효율적으로 사용하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 API-581 절차에 의한 위험기반검사에서 취성파괴에 의한 사고발생 가능성을 정량적으로 해석하였다. 그 결과, 낮은 온도/낮은 인성파괴와 뜨임취성에서는 A 충격곡선이고. 낮은 온도와 열처리 전인 상태에서 기술종속계수(TMSF)가 큰 값을 나타내었고, $855^{\circ}F$ 취성에서는 위험도가 무시할 수 있었으나, 시그마상 취성에서는 낮은 온도의 고 시그마인 경우에 TMSF가 큰 값을 나타내어 사고발생 가능성이 매우 높았다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.229-236
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• 2014

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used engineering tool in the fields of the design of a product or a process to improve its quality or performance by prioritizing potential failure modes in terms of three risk factors-severity, occurrence, and detection. In a classical FMEA, the risk priority number is obtained by multiplying the three values in 10 score scales which are evaluated for the three risk factors. However, the drawbacks of the classical FMEA have been mentioned by many previous researchers. As a way to overcome these difficulties, this paper suggests the ELECTRE III that is a representative technique among outranking models. Furthermore, fuzzy linguistic variables are included to deal with ambiguous and imperfect evaluation process. In addition, when the importances for the three risk factors are obtained, the entropy method is applied. The numerical example which was previously studied by Kutlu and Ekmekio$\breve{g}$lu(2012), who suggested the fuzzy TOPSIS method along with fuzzy AHP, is also adopted so as to be compared with the results of their research. Finally, after comparing the results of this study with that of Kutlu and Ekmekio$\breve{g}$lu(2012), further possible researches are mentioned.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.137-147
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• 2017

A water treatment utility in South Korea operates a large system of pressurized hollow fiber membrane (PHFM) modules. The optimal selection of membrane module for the full scale plant was critical issue and carried out using Risk-based Life Cycle Cost (RbLCC) analysis based on the historical data of operation and maintenance. The RbLCC analysis was used in the process of decision-making for replacing aged modules. The initial purchasing cost and the value at risk during operation were considered together. The failure of modules occurs stochastically depending on the physical deterioration with usage over time. The life span of module was used as a factor for the failure of Poisson's probability model, which was used to obtain the probability of failure during the operation. The RbLCC was calculated by combining the initial cost and the value at risk without its warranty term. Additionally, the properties of membrane were considered to select the optimum product. Results showed that the module's life span in the system was ten years (120 month) with safety factor. The optimum product was selected from six candidates membrane for a full scale water treatment facility. This method could be used to make the optimum and rational decision for the operation of membrane water purification facility.