• Title/Summary/Keyword: failure rate estimation

Search Result 147, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Nonparametric Reliability Estimation in Strength-Stress Model: B-Spline Approach

  • Kim, Jae-Joo;Na, Myung-Hwan;Lee, Kang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.152-162
    • /
    • 1999
  • In this paper we develope a new nonparametric estimator of the reliability in strength-stress model. This estimator is constructed using the maximum likelihood estimate of cumulative failure rate in the class of distributions which have piecewise linear failure rate functions between each pair of observations. Large sample properties of our estimator are examined. The proposed estimator is compared with previously known estimator by Monte Carlo study.

  • PDF

Reliability Estimation of High Voltage Ceramic Capacitor by Failure Analysis (고압 커패시터의 고장 분석을 통한 신뢰도 예측)

  • Yang, Seok-Jun;Kim, Jin-Woo;Shin, Seung-Woo;Lee, Hee-Jin;Shin, Seung-Hun;Ryu, Dong-Su;Chang, Seog-Weon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.618-629
    • /
    • 2001
  • This paper presents a result of failure analysis and reliability evaluation for high voltage ceramic capacitors. The failure modes and failure mechanisms were studied in two ways in order to estimate component life and failure rate. The causes of failure mechanisms for zero resistance phenomena under withstanding voltage test in high voltage ceramic capacitors molded by epoxy resin were studied by establishing an effective root cause failure analysis. Particular emphasis was placed on breakdown phenomena at the ceramic-epoxy interface. The validity of the results in this study was confirmed by the results of accelerated testing. Thermal cycling test for high voltage ceramic capacitor mounted on a magnetron were implemented. Delamination between ceramic and epoxy, which might cause electrical short in underlying circuitry, can occur during curing or thermal cycle. The results can be conveniently used to quickly identify defective lots, determine $B_{10}$ life estimation each lot at the level of inspection, and detect major changes in the vendors processes. Also, the condition for dielectric breakdown was investigated for the estimation of failure rate with load-strength interference model.

  • PDF

Reliability Estimation of Door Hinge for Rome Appliances (가전제품용 경첩의 신뢰성 추정)

  • Kim Jin Woo;Shin Jae Chul;Kim Myung Soo;Moon Ji Seob
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.29 no.5 s.236
    • /
    • pp.689-697
    • /
    • 2005
  • This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, $B_{10}$ life and its lower bound with $90\%$ confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.

Reliability Estimation of Door Hinge for Home Appliances (가전제품용 경첩의 신뢰성 추정)

  • 문지섭;김진우;이재국;이희진;신재철;김명수
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
    • /
    • 2004.07a
    • /
    • pp.303-311
    • /
    • 2004
  • This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, B$_{10}$ life and its lower bound with 90% confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.a.

  • PDF

A Study on the Software Reliability Model Analysis Following Exponential Type Life Distribution (지수 형 수명분포를 따르는 소프트웨어 신뢰모형 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.13-20
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this paper, I was applied the life distribution following linear failure rate distribution, Lindley distribution and Burr-Hatke exponential distribution extensively used in the arena of software reliability and were associated the reliability possessions of the software using the nonhomogeneous Poisson process with finite failure. Furthermore, the average value functions of the life distribution are non-increasing form. Case of the linear failure rate distribution (exponential distribution) than other models, the smaller the estimated value estimation error in comparison with the true value. In terms of accuracy, since Burr-Hatke exponential distribution and exponential distribution model in the linear failure rate distribution have small mean square error values, Burr-Hatke exponential distribution and exponential distribution models were stared as the well-organized model. Also, the linear failure rate distribution (exponential distribution) and Burr-Hatke exponential distribution model, which can be viewed as an effectual model in terms of goodness-of-fit because the larger assessed value of the coefficient of determination than other models. Through this study, software workers can use the design of mean square error, mean value function as a elementary recommendation for discovering software failures.

Estimation for Failure Rate of Railway Power Facility and Determination of Maintenance Priority Order using Fuzzy Theory and Expert System (퍼지이론과 전문가 시스템을 이용한 철도 전력 설비의 고장률 평가와 유지보수 우선순위의 결정)

  • Lee, Yun-Seong;Kwon, Ki-Ryang;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2009.05a
    • /
    • pp.495-504
    • /
    • 2009
  • As the Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is being studied, maintenance tasks can be performed effectively through the Risk Priority Number(RPN) evaluation about the components in the system. The RPN is usually calculated through arithmetical operations of three values, Severity, Occurrence, and Detection for each facility. This RPN provides information that includes risk level of the facility and the priority order of maintenance tasks for facility. However, if there is no sufficient historical failure data, it is difficult to calculate the RPN. In this case, historical failure data from other sources can be used and apply this data to korean railway system. In this paper, it is proposed that a new methodology to model the failure rate as a fuzzy membership function. This method is based on failure data from other sources by means of the fuzzy theory and the expert opinion system. And considering assessment tendency of each expert, distortions that happened when the failure rate of facilities is estimated were minimized. This results determine Occurrence values of facilities. Taking advantage of this result., the RPN can be calculated with Severity and Detection of facilities by using the fuzzy operation. The proposed method is applied the rail-way power substation.

  • PDF

A Comparison of Reliability Factors of Software Reliability Model Following Lifetime Distribution Dependent on Pareto and Erlang Shape Parameters (파레토 및 어랑 형상모수에 의존한 수명분포를 따르는 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 신뢰도 특성요인 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.71-80
    • /
    • 2017
  • Software reliability is one of the most elementary and important problems in software development In order to find the software failure occurrence, the instantaneous failure rate function in the Poisson process can have a constant, incremental or decreasing tendency independently of the failure time. In this study, we compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model using the parameters of Pareto life distribution with the intensity decreasing pattern and the shape parameter of Erlang life distribution with the intensity increasing and decreasing pattern in the software product testing. In order to identify the software failure environment, the parametric estimation was applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method. Therefore, in this paper, we compare and evaluate software reliability by applying software failure time data. The reliability of the Erlang and Pareto life models is shown to be higher than that of the Pareto lifetime distribution model when the shape parameter is higher and the Erlang model is more reliable when the shape parameter is higher. Through this study, the software design department will be able to help the software design by applying various life distribution and shape parameters, and providing basic knowledge using software failure analysis.

Parameter Estimation of the Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution under Three Step-Stress Accelerated Life Test

  • Moon, Gyoung-Ae;Kim, In-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1375-1386
    • /
    • 2006
  • In life testing, the lifetimes of test units under the usual conditions are so long that life testing at usual conditions is impractical. Testing units are subjected to conditions of high stress to yield informations quickly. In this paper, the inferences of parameters on the three step-stress accelerated life testing are studied. The two-parameter exponential distribution with a failure rate function that a log-quadratic function of stress and the tempered failure rate model are considered. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters and their confidence regions. A numerical example will be given to illustrate the proposed inferential procedures.

  • PDF

Parameters Estimation of Generalized Linear Failure Rate Semi-Markov Reliability Models

  • El-Gohary, A.;Al-Khedhair, A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-16
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this paper we will discuss the stochastic analysis of a three state semi-Markov reliability model. Maximum likelihood procedure will be used to obtain the estimators of the parameters included in this reliability model. Based on the assumption that the lifetime and repair time of the system units are generalized linear failure rate random variables, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Also, the distribution of the first passage time of this system will be derived. Some important special cases are discussed.

  • PDF

The Study on Estimating Life Cycle of 2.5 Inch Hard disk base on PC using enviroment (PC 사용 환경에 기반한 2.5 인치 하드 디스크의 수명주기 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Cho, Euy-Hyun;Park, Jeong-Kyu;Lee, Min-Woo;Kwon, Soon-Mu
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.301-308
    • /
    • 2014
  • The mass storage of data and the importance of storage capacity lately has emerged. In this paper, we suggest the new method which estimate life cycle from acceleration life test about 2.5 inch hard disk driver as mass storage, which minimize the difference between real market annual failure rate and estimated failure rate. we obtain market transfer capacity per hours from returned 2.5inch hard disk drives about 309 numbers and accelerating transfer capacity per hours from acceleration life test. we calculate acceleration factor about duty cycle and estimate annual failure rate from failure rate and acceleration factors: temperature acceleration factor, duty cycle acceleration factor, the transfer capacity per hour represent the 93.4 % of user is 5.8 GB/hour, the transfer capacity per hour from acceleration life test is 81.4 GB/hour. the acceleration factor of duty cycle is 14.1. annual failure rate is stabilized at market one year after, annual failure rate is between 0.3 and 0.378. estimated annual failure rate is 0.4, so it is matched at 75~94 % between estimate annual failure rate and market annual failure rate. This study influence the estimate method of annual failure rate by the result of acceleration life cycle of manufacture.