• Title/Summary/Keyword: failure factors

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Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis for Aneuploidy Screening in Patients with Poor Reproductive Outcome (염색체 이수성과 관련된 비정상적 임신이 예상되는 환자에서 착상전 유전진단의 결과)

  • Kim, Jin Yeong;Lim, Chun Kyu;Cha, Sun Hwa;Park, Soo Hyun;Yang, Kwang Moon;Song, In Ok;Jun, Jin Hyun;Park, So Yeon;Koong, Mi Kyoung;Kang, Inn Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.179-187
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: The risk of aneuploidies of embryos increases in advanced maternal age or parental karyotype abnormality and it results in poor reproductive outcomes such as recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) or repeated implantation failure (RIF). Preimplantation genetic diagnosis for aneuploidy screening (PGD-AS) can be applied for better ART outcome by selecting chromosomally normal embryos. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical outcome of PGD-AS and which group can get much benefit from PGD-AS among the patients expected to have poor reproductive outcome. Methods: In 42 patients, 77 PGD cycles were performed for aneuploidy screening. Patients were allocated to 3 groups according to the indication of PGD-AS: group I-patients with old age (${\geq}37$) and RIF more than 3 times (n=11, mean age=42.2 yrs.), group II-patients with RSA (${\geq}3$ times) associated with aneuploid pregnancy (n=19, mean age=38.9 yrs.), group III-parental sex chromosome abnormality or mosaicism (n=18, mean age=29.6 yrs.) including Turner syndrome, Klinefelter syndrome and 47, XYY. PGD was performed by using FISH for chromosome 13, 16, 18, 21, X and Y in group I and II, and chromosome X, Y and 18 (or 17) in group III. Results: Blastomere biopsy was successful in 530 embryos and FISH efficiency was 92.3%. The proportions of transferable embryos in each group were $32.5{\pm}17.5%$, $23.0{\pm}21.7%$ and $52.6{\pm}29.2%$ (mean ${\pm}$ SD), respectively, showing higher normal rate in group III (group II vs. III, p<0.05). The numbers of transferred embryos in each group were $3.9{\pm}1.5$, $1.9{\pm}1.1$ and $3.1{\pm}1.4$ (mean ${\pm}$ SD), respectively. The clinical pregnancy rates per transfer was 0%, 30.0% and 20.0%, and it was significantly higher in group II (group I vs. group II, p<0.05). The overall pregnancy rate per transfer was 19.6% (10/51) and the spontaneous abortion rate was 20% (2/10) of which karyotypes were euploid. Nine healthy babies (one twin pregnancy) were born with normal karyotype confirmed on amniocentesis. Conclusion: Our data suggests that PGD-AS provides advantages in patients with RSA associated with aneuploidy or sex chromosome abnormality, decreasing abortion rate and increasing ongoing pregnancy rate. It is not likely to be beneficial in RIF group due to other detrimental factors involved in implantation.

A Conceptual Review of the Transaction Costs within a Distribution Channel (유통경로내의 거래비용에 대한 개념적 고찰)

  • Kwon, Young-Sik;Mun, Jang-Sil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2012
  • This paper undertakes a conceptual review of transaction cost to broaden the understanding of the transaction cost analysis (TCA) approach. More than 40 years have passed since Coase's fundamental insight that transaction, coordination, and contracting costs must be considered explicitly in explaining the extent of vertical integration. Coase (1937) forced economists to identify previously neglected constraints on the trading process to foster efficient intrafirm, rather than interfirm, transactions. The transaction cost approach to economic organization study regards transactions as the basic units of analysis and holds that understanding transaction cost economy is central to organizational study. The approach applies to determining efficient boundaries, as between firms and markets, and to internal transaction organization, including employment relations design. TCA, developed principally by Oliver Williamson (1975,1979,1981a) blends institutional economics, organizational theory, and contract law. Further progress in transaction costs research awaits the identification of critical dimensions in which transaction costs differ and an examination of the economizing properties of alternative institutional modes for organizing transactions. The crucial investment distinction is: To what degree are transaction-specific (non-marketable) expenses incurred? Unspecialized items pose few hazards, since buyers can turn toalternative sources, and suppliers can sell output intended for one order to other buyers. Non-marketability problems arise when specific parties' identities have important cost-bearing consequences. Transactions of this kind are labeled idiosyncratic. The summarized results of the review are as follows. First, firms' distribution decisions often prompt examination of the make-or-buy question: Should a marketing activity be performed within the organization by company employees or contracted to an external agent? Second, manufacturers introducing an industrial product to a foreign market face a difficult decision. Should the product be marketed primarily by captive agents (the company sales force and distribution division) or independent intermediaries (outside sales agents and distribution)? Third, the authors develop a theoretical extension to the basic transaction cost model by combining insights from various theories with the TCA approach. Fourth, other such extensions are likely required for the general model to be applied to different channel situations. It is naive to assume the basic model appliesacross markedly different channel contexts without modifications and extensions. Although this study contributes to scholastic research, it is limited by several factors. First, the theoretical perspective of TCA has attracted considerable recent interest in the area of marketing channels. The analysis aims to match the properties of efficient governance structures with the attributes of the transaction. Second, empirical evidence about TCA's basic propositions is sketchy. Apart from Anderson's (1985) study of the vertical integration of the selling function and John's (1984) study of opportunism by franchised dealers, virtually no marketing studies involving the constructs implicated in the analysis have been reported. We hope, therefore, that further research will clarify distinctions between the different aspects of specific assets. Another important line of future research is the integration of efficiency-oriented TCA with organizational approaches that emphasize specific assets' conceptual definition and industry structure. Finally, research of transaction costs, uncertainty, opportunism, and switching costs is critical to future study.

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Surgery Alone and Surgery Plus Postoperative Radiation Therapy for Patients with pT3N0 Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Invading the Chest Wall (흉벽을 침범한 pT3N0 비소세포폐암 환자에서 수술 단독과 수술 후 방사선치료)

  • 박영제;임도훈;김관민;김진국;심영목;안용찬
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.845-855
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    • 2004
  • Background: No general consensus has been available regarding the necessity of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) and its optimal techniques in the patients with chest wall invasion (pT3cw) and node negative (N0) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We did retrospective analyses on the pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients who received PORT because of presumed inadequate resection margin on surgical findings. And we compared them with the pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients who did not received PORT during the same period. Material and Method: From Aug. of 1994 till June of 2002, 22 pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients received PORT-PORT (+) group- and 16 pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients had no PORT-PORT (-) group. The radiation target volume for PORT (+) group was confined to the tumor bed plus the immediate adjacent tissue only, and no regional lymphatics were included. The prognostic factors for all patients were analyzed and survival rates, failure patterns were compared with two groups. Result: Age, tumor size, depth of chest wall invasion, postoperative mobidities were greater in PORT (-) group than PORT (+) group. In PORT (-) group, four patients who were consulted for PORT did not receive the PORT because of self refusal (3 patients) and delay in the wound repair (1 patient). For all patients, overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), loco-regional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), and distant metastases-free survival (DMFS) rates at 5 years were 35.3%, 30.3%, 80.9%, 36.3%. In univariate and multivariate analysis, only PORT significantly affect the survival. The 5 year as rates were 43.3% in the PORT (+) group and 25.0% in PORT (-) group (p=0.03). DFS, LRFS, DMFS rates were 36.9%, 84.9%, 43.1 % in PORT (+) group and 18.8%, 79.4%, 21.9% in PORT(-) group respectively. Three patients in PORT (-) group died of intercurrent disease without the evidence of recurrence. Few suffered from acute and late radiation side effects, all of which were RTOG grade 2 or lower. Conclusion: The strategy of adding PORT to surgery to improve the probability not only of local control but also of survival could be justified, considering that local control was the most important component in the successful treatment of pT3cw NSCLC patients, especially when the resection margin was not adequate. Authors were successful in the marked reduction of the incidence as well as the severity of the acute and late side effects of PORT, without taking too high risk of the regional failures by eliminating the regional lymphatics from the radiation target volume.

High versus Low Dose-Rate Intracavitary Irradiation for Adenocarcinoma of the Uterine Cervix (자궁경부 선암 환자에서 고선량률 강내치료와 저선량률 강내치료의 비교)

  • Kim Woo Chul;Kim Gwi Eon;Chung Eun Ji;Suh Chang Ok;Hong Soon Won;Cho Young Kap;Loh JK
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 2000
  • Purpose :The incidence of adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix is low. Traditionally, Low Dose Rate (LDR) brachytherapy has been used as a standard modality in the treatment for patients with carcinoma of the uterine cervix. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the effects of the High dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy in the patients with adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix compared with the LDR. : From January 1971 to December 1992, 106 patients of adenocarcinoma of uterine cervix were treated with radiation therapy in the Department of Radiation Oncology, Yonsei University with curative intent. LDR brachytherapy was carried out on 35 patients and 71 patients were treated with HDR brachytherapy. In LDR Group, 8 patients were in stage I, 18 in stage II and 9 in stage III. External radiation therapy was delivered with 10 MV X-ray, daily 2 Gy fractionation, total dose 40$\~$46Gy (median 48 Gy). And LDR Radium intracavitary irradiation was peformed with Henschke applicator, 22$\~$59 Gy to point A (median 43 Gy). In HDR Group, there were 16 patients in stage 1, 38 in stage II and 17 in stage III. The total dose of external radiation was 40$\~$61 Gy(median 45 Gy), daily 1.8$\~$2.0 Gy. HDR Co-60 intracavitary irradiation was peformed with RALS (Remote Afterloading System), 30 $\~$ 57 Gy(median 39 Gy) to point A, 3 times a week, 3 Gy per fraction. Conclusion : The 5-year overall survival rate in LDR Group was 72.9$\%$, 61.9$\%$, 45.0$\%$ in stage I, II, III, respectively and corresponding figures for HDR were 87.1$\%$, 58.3$\%$, 41.2$\%$, respectively (p>0.05). There was no statistical difference in terms of the 5-year overall survival rate between HDR Group and LDR Group in adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix. There was 11$\%$ of late complication rates in LDR Group and 27$\%$ in HDR Group. There were no prognostic factors compared HDR with LDR group. The incidence of the late complication rate in HDR Group stage II, III was higher than that in LDR Group(16.7$\%$ vs. 31.6$\%$ in stage II, 11.1$\%$ vs. 35.3$\%$ In stage III, p>0.05). Although the incidence of radiation induced late complication rate was higher in HDR Group stage II and III patients than that in the LDR Group, statistical significance was not detected and within acceptable level. Conclusion : There was no difference in terms of 5-year survival rate and failure pattern in the patients with adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix treated with HDR and LDR brachytherapy. Even late complication rates were higher in the HDR group It was an acceptable range. This retrospective study suggests that HDR brachytherapy seems to replace the LDR brachytherapy in the adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix. However, further studies will be required to refine the dose rate effects.

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Difference in Patient's Work of Breathing Between Pressure-Controlled Ventilation with Decelerating Flow and Volume-Controlled Ventilation with Constant Flow during Assisted Ventilation (보조환기양식으로서 감속형유량의 압력-조절환기와 일정형유량의 용적-조절환기에서 환자의 호흡일의 차이)

  • Kim, Ho-Cheol;Park, Sang-Jun;Park, Jung-Woong;Suh, Gee-Young;Chung, Man-Pyo;Kim, Ho-Joong;Kwon, O-Jung;Rhee, Chong-H.
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.803-810
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    • 1999
  • Background : The patient's work of breathing(WOBp) during assisted ventilation may vary according to many factors including ventilatory demand of the patients and applied ventilatory setting by the physician. Pressure-controlled ventilation(PCV) which delivers gas with decelerating flow may better meet patients' demand to improve patient-ventilator synchrony compared with volume-controlled ventilation(VCV) with constant flow. This study was conducted to compare the difference in WOBp in two assisted modes of ventilation, PCV and VCV with constant flow. Methods : Ten patients with respiratory failure were included in this study. Initially, the patients were placed on VCV with constant flow at low tidal volume($V_{T,\;LOW}$)(6-8 ml/kg) or high tidal volume($V_{T,\;HIGH}$)(10-12 ml/kg). After a 15 minute stabilization period, VCV with constant flow was switched to PCV and pressure was adjusted to maintain the same tidal volume($V_T$) received on VCV. Other ventilator settings were kept constant. Before changing the ventilatory mode, WOBp, $V_T$, minute ventilation($V_E$), respiratory rate(RR), peak airway pressure (Ppeak), peak inspiratory flow rate(PIFR) and pressure-time product(PTP) were measured. Results : The mean $V_E$ and RR were not different between PCV and VCV during the study period. The Ppeak was significantly lower in PCV than in VCV during $V_{T,\;HIGH}$. HIGH ventilation(p<0.05). PIFR was significantly higher in PCV than in VCV at both $V_T$ (p<0.05). During $V_{T,\;LOW}$ ventilation, WOBp and PTP in PCV($0.80{\pm}0.37\;J/min$, $164.5{\pm}74.4\;cmH_2O.S$) were significantly lower than in VCV($1.06{\pm}0.39J/mm$, $256.4{\pm}107.5\;cmH_2O.S$)(p<0.05). During $V_{T,\;HIGH}$ ventilation, WOBp and PTP in PCV($0.33{\pm}0.14\;J/min$, $65.7{\pm}26.3\;cmH_2O.S$) were also significantly lower than in VCV($0.40{\pm}0.14\;J/min$, $83.4{\pm}35.1\;cmH_2O.S$)(p<0.05). Conclusion : During assisted ventilation, PCV with decelerating flow was more effective in reducing WOBp than VCV with constant flow. But since individual variability was shown, further studies are needed to confirm these results.

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The Etiologies and Initial Antimicrobial Therapy Outcomes in One Tertiary Hospital ICU-admitted Patient with Severe Community-acquired Pneumonia (국내 한 3차 병원 중환자실에 입원한 중증지역획득폐렴 환자의 원인 미생물과 경험적 항균제 치료 성적의 고찰)

  • Lee, Jae Seung;Chung, Joo Won;Koh, Yunsuck;Lim, Chae-Man;Jung, Young Joo;Oh, Youn Mok;Shim, Tae Sun;Lee, Sang Do;Kim, Woo Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won Dong;Hong, Sang-Bum
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.59 no.5
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    • pp.522-529
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    • 2005
  • Background : Several national societies have published guidelines for empirical antimicrobial therapy in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). This study investigated the etiologies of SCAP in the Asan Medical Center and assessed the relationship between the initial empirical antimicrobial regimen and 30 day mortality rate. Method : retrospective analysis was performed on patients with SCAP admitted to the ICU between March 2002 and February 2004 in the Asan Medical Center. The basic demographic data, bacteriologic study results and initial antimicrobial regimen were examined for all patients. The clinical outcomes including the ICU length of stay, the ICU mortality rate, and 30 days mortality rates were assessed by the initial antimicrobial regimen. Results : One hundred sixteen consecutive patients were admitted to the ICU (mean age 66.5 years, 81.9 % male, 30 days mortality 28.4 %). The microbiologic diagnosis was established in 58 patients (50 %). The most common pathogens were S. pneumoniae (n=12), P. aeruginosae (n=9), K. pneumonia (n=9) and S. aureus (n=8). The initial empirical antimicrobial regimens were classified as: ${\beta}$-lactam plus macrolide; ${\beta}$-lactam plus fluoroquinolone; anti-Pseudomonal ${\beta}$-lactam plus fluoroquinolone; Aminoglycoside combination regimen; ${\beta}$-lactam plus clindamycin; and ${\beta}$-lactam alone. There were no statistical significant differences in the 30-day mortality rate according to the initial antimicrobial regimen (p = 0.682). Multivariate analysis revealed that acute renal failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome and K. pneumonae were independent risk factors related to the 30 day mortality rate. Conclusion : S. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosae, K. pneumonia and S. aureus were the most common causative pathogens in patients with SCAP and K. pneumoniae was an independent risk factor for 30 day mortality. The initial antimicrobial regimen was not associated with the 30-day mortality.

Postmastectomy Radiotherapy and Chemotherapy in Patients with Breast Cancer (유방절제술을 시행한 유방암 환자에서 방사선과 항암제 치료성적)

  • Ahn Sung-Ja;Chung Woong-Ki;Nam Taek-Keun;Nah Byung-Sik;Song Ju-Young;park Seung-Jin
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: To evaluate the treatment outcomes after postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) and chemotherapy in patients with breast cancer. Materials and Methods: The PMRT were retrospectively analyzed in 83 patients with stage II-III female breast cancer treated between 1989 and 1995. The median age was 46 years (range, 23-77): Seventy-seven patients had modified radical mastectomies, 5 radical mastectomies and 1 simple mastectomy. Three patients ($4\%$) had pathologically negative axillae, and the remaining 80 ($96\%$) had positive axillae. Eleven, 23, 44 and 5 patients had pathological stages IIA, IIB, IIIA, and IIIB, retrospectively. Eighty ($96\%$) patients were treated with hockey-stick fields. The median dose of PMRT was 50.4 ey, in 1.8 Gy fractions. Adjuvant systemic chemotherapy was given to 74 patients ($89\%$). CMF-based or doxorubicin-containing regimens were given to 54 patients ($55\%$). The median follow-up time was 82 months (range, 8-171) after the mastectomy. Results: The 5 and 10-year overall survival rates for all patients were 65 and $49\%$, respectively. The univariate and multivariate analyses of the factors affecting the overall survival revealed the stage to be the most significant prognostic factor (p=0.002), followed by the combination of chemotherapy. Thirteen patients $16\%$ developed a LRF, at an interval of 4-84 months after radiotherapy, with a median of 20 months. The only significant prognostic factor affecting LRF was the combination of chemotherapy, in both the univariate and multivariate analyses. With respect to the sequence of chemoradiation, the sequence had no saatistical significance (p=0.90). According to the time interval from mastectomy to the onset of radiotherapy, the LRFR of the patients group treated by RT within or after 6 month postmastectomy 6 months were 14 vs. $27\%$ respectively (p=0.24). One third of the pa41en1s (26/83) developed distant metastasis, in 2-92 months, after radiotherapy, with a median of 21 months. The most commonly involved site was bone in 13 cases. The pathological staging was the only significant prognostic factor in both the univariate and multivariate analyses that affected distant failure. Radiological finding of radiation pneumonitis on a simple chest x-ray was shown in $20\%$ (17/83), with a time interval ranging from 2 to 7 months post-radiotherapy, with a median of 3 months. The stable lung fibrosis settled in 11 patients ($65\%$). Conclusion: It was concluded through this analysis that the combination of PMRT with in chemotherapy resulted in better overall survival and local control than PMRT alone in patients needing PMRT.

An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

A Study on the Growth Diagnosis and Management Prescription for Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214) (진안 평지리 이팝나무군(천연기념물 제214호)의 생육진단 및 관리방안)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Han, Sang-Yub;Choi, Yung-Hyun;Son, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2018
  • This study was attempted to find out the value of cultural assets through the clear diagnosis and prescription of the dead and weakness factors of the Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214), The results are as follows. First, Since the designation of 13 natural monuments in 1968, since 1973, many years have passed since then. In particular, despite the removal of some of the buried soil during the maintenance process, such as retreating from the fence of the primary school after 2010, Second, The first and third surviving tree of the designated trees also have many branches that are dead, the leaves are dull, and the amount of leaves is small. vitality of tree is 'extremely bad', and the first branch has already been faded by a large number of branches, and the amount of leaves is considerably low this year, so that only two flowers are bloomed. The second is also in a 'bad'state, with small leaves, low leaf density, and deformed water. The largest number 1 in the world is added to the concern that the s coverd oil is assumed to be paddy soils. Third, It is found that the composition ratio of silt is high because it is known as '[silty loam(SiL)]'. In addition, the pH of the northern soil at pH 1 was 6.6, which was significantly different from that of the other soil. In addition, the organic matter content was higher than the appropriate range, which is considered to reflect the result of continuous application for protection management. Fourth, It is considered that the root cause of failure and growth of Jinan pyeongji-ri Population of Retusa Fringe Trees group is chronic syndrome of serious menstrual deterioration due to covered soil. This can also be attributed to the newly planted succession and to some of the deaths. Fifthly, It is urgent to gradually remove the subsoil part, which is estimated to be the cause of the initial damage. Above all, it is almost impossible to remove the coverd soil after grasping the details of the soil, such as clayey soil, which is buried in the rootstock. After removal of the coverd soil, a pestle is installed to improve the respiration of the roots and the ground with Masato. And the dead 4th dead wood and the 5th and 6th dead wood are the best, and the lower layer vegetation is mown. The viable neck should be removed from the upper surface, and the bark defect should undergo surgery and induce the development of blindness by vestibule below the growth point. Sixth, The underground roots should be identified to prepare a method to improve the decompression of the root and the respiration of the soil. It is induced by the shortening of rotten roots by tracing the first half of the rootstock to induce the generation of new roots. Seventh, We try mulching to suppress weed occurrence, trampling pressure, and soil moisturizing effect. In addition, consideration should be given to the fertilization of the foliar fertilizer, the injection of the nutrients, and the soil management of the inorganic fertilizer for the continuous nutrition supply. Future monitoring and forecasting plans should be developed to check for changes continuously.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.