• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.277-282
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• 2009

This paper estimated the container volumes for the Incheon port with univariate time series. As best suited models Winters' additive model, ARIMA model,and Winters' additive model were selected by import-export, coastal, and transshipment volume respectively, based on the data of monthly volume by October 2008 since January 2001. This study supposed the import-export container volumes would be decreased by 14% against that in 2008 and would have been recovered to the increasing trend of the volumes beyond the fourth quarter of 2010. The future import-export and transshipment volumes showed the increasing trend beyond 2011, while the coastal volumes would be on the stagnation. The yearly container volumes were finally forecasted as 1,705, 2,432, and 3,341 thousand TEU in 2011, 2015, and 2020 respectively.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.193-207
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• 2012

The of purpose of this study is to predict export and import container volumes using a Decision Tree analysis. Factors which can influence the volume of container cargo are selected as independent variables; producer price index, consumer price index, index of export volume, index of import volume, index of industrial production, and exchange rate(won/dollar). The period of analysis is from january 2002 to December 2011 and monthly data are used. In this study, CRT(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm is used. The main findings are summarized as followings. First, when index of export volume is larger than 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 858,19TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 115.90 and 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 716,582TEU. Second, when index of import volume is larger than 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 869,227TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 116.20 and 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 738,724TEU.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.17-27
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• 2024

Purpose: The renminbi (RMB) has appreciated alongside the elevation of China's economic status, leading to increased exchange rate volatility. Moreover, China's medical industry saw a surge in import and export trade volume, with trade related to epidemic prevention and control in the medical sector significantly increasing its share. The medical device trade, in particular, occupies a substantial portion of this trade. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the import and export value of medical devices in the medical industry as a case study to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export trade of the medical industry during the pandemic. Additionally, it investigates whether the import and export trade of the medical industry can be a contributing factor to the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Results: Through an empirical study on the import and export values of medical devices in the medical industry over the past three years, as well as the RMB exchange rate, this paper establishes a VAR model and conducts a series of tests including stationarity tests and cointegration tests. Conclusions: The conclusion is that fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have a long-term impact on China's medical industry's import and export trade.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2022

Purpose: This study aims to investigate whether AIS data can be used as a supporting indicator or as an initial signal to describe Indonesia's export-import conditions in real-time. Research design, data, and methodology: This study performs several stages of data selection to obtain indicators from AIS that truly reflect export-import activities in Indonesia. Also, investigate the potential of AIS indicators in producing forecasts of the value and volume of Indonesian export-import using conventional statistical methods and machine learning techniques. Results: The six preprocessing stages defined in this study filtered AIS data from 661.8 million messages to 73.5 million messages. Seven predictors were formed from the selected AIS data. The AIS indicator can be used to provide an initial signal about Indonesia's import-export activities. Each export or import activity has its own predictor. Conventional statistical methods and machine learning techniques have the same ability both in forecasting Indonesia's exports and imports. Conclusions: Big data AIS can be used as a supporting indicator as a signal of the condition of export-import values in Indonesia. The right method of building indicators can make the data valuable for the performance of the forecasting model.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.197-213
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• 2022

This study aims to investigate the relationship between cargo volume and logistics performance index published by World Bank which indicate countries' logistics performance. In this study, the results were derived through panel regression analysis consisting of variables such as gross domestic product, geographical distance, population, and LPI using container export/import volume and bulk export/import volume as dependent variables. As a result of the empirical analysis, it was found that Korea's container volume was affected by the overall level of logistics, in particular, was deeply related to the logistics infrastructure, while bulk volume was not related to the logistics level or was less influential.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.75
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• pp.95-116
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• 2017

The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.19-28
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• 2024

Purpose: In the era of global economic integration, China's doors of openness have widened, leading to increasingly frequent economic and trade exchanges between countries. Exchange rates, as a crucial economic lever for regulating foreign markets, play a vital role in the balanced development of a nation's international trade. Therefore, the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign trade has garnered widespread attention. Research design, data and methodology: This study utilizes import and export trade data between China and five ASEAN countries from 1998 to 2019. It employs regression analysis to examine the specific impact of the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi on China's import and export trade with these ASEAN nations. Results: The empirical analysis yields the following conclusions: Firstly, the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi exhibits a long-term stable relationship with China's import and export trade with the five ASEAN countries. Renminbi appreciation contributes to an increase in export trade volume but is detrimental to import trade. While this conclusion may deviate from classical trade theories, it aligns with the practical realities of China's foreign trade. Secondly, the coefficients before Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all display positive values, indicating that the growth of total economic demand has a stimulating effect on China's import and export trade.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.293-309
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• 2022

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the import and export volume of Jeollabuk-do to establish a plan to activiation Saemangeum New Port. To this end, this study utilized the HHI(Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), LQ(Location Quotient) analysis using the annual data set from the Korea Trade Statistics Promotion Institution between 2015 to 2020. As a result, it has been confirmed that the degree of export volume concentration (HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)) in Jeollabuk-do has been increasing over the past 5 years. According to results of LQ(Location Quotient) analysis, Brazil had the highest index in the case of exporting countries, and Meat, edible meat offal (HS 2) had the highest index in the case of export items. This paper is meaningful in analyzing the export structure using import and export volumes and proposing a plan to improve the competitiveness of Saemangeum New Port.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.60
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• pp.195-209
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• 2013

South Korea, despite the financial turbulences has marked the trade volume of USD 1 trillion and marked $7^{th}$ largest exporter in 2013. Approximately 40% of the entire import of Korea was for export. In the South Korean trade structure, import and export are closely related, requiring proactive import financial assistance policies. Recognizing this, K-sure has made import insurance policy available on the market since July 2010. The K-sure insurance policy targets both financial institutions and importers. This is the reason why this research seeks to review the import insurance terms for importers and compare with foreign import insurance products to find out ways to improve. K-sure's import insurance for importers is to cover a loss of a policyholder when the policyholder or importer domestically addressed made a prepayment but cannot receive goods. The import insurance is applied to import transactions of goods or resources. K-sure's import insurance coverage needs to be expanded to intermediary trade and consignment processing trade, etc. In this sense, a more systematic educational program should be introduced about K-sure's import insurance.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.8
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• pp.133-152
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of commodity trade in Korea and China and to examine the implications of China's GVC shift from export to domestic market on its impact on Korea's trade. Design/methodology - This study selected 30 major trading partner countries. The dependent variable is the trade volume, and the independent variables are general economic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, distance, and FTA. Findings - The trade pattern of Korea's commodities shows that GDP has a positive relationship with trade, import, and export. Distance has a significant negative relationship with total trade, import, and export. FTA is significant for import but it is not significant for total trade and export. The trade pattern of China's commodities shows that GDP has a significant positive relationship with total trade, import, and export. Distance has a negative relationship with trade, import, and export. GDP per capita is not significant for total trade and import, but it is significant for export. FTA is significant for total trade and export, but it is not significant for import. Originality/value - Existing papers were studied mainly in certain industrial sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, automobile industry and steel industry. This paper attempts to collects vast amounts of data about the 30 countries of Korea and China respectively and analyzes by Random Effect Model dividing the goods (0 to 9) in units of STIC (Rev. 4). The major contribution is that the decision factors affecting commodity trade can be analyzed in SITC units (0-9) to obtain analysis results that are subdivided by product group and organized by product.