• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.25-34
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• 1997

This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation process to assess an uncertainty inherent in accident management. The need to work with rare event and limited data in accident management leads analysis to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approach using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited dat3 and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining and propagating fuzzy probabilities. finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the probability of a bottom head failure for the flooded case in the Peach Bottom BWR nuclear power plant.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.915-925
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• 2021

The study investigates some psychological and environmental factors affecting the intention to purchase organic foods of consumers in the inner-city of Hanoi. Impact factors applied for the study include three psychological factors (health concern, environmental concern, consumer awareness of organic foods) and seven environment factors (family's opinion, friends and colleagues' opinion, influence of celebrities, expert's opinion, social status, mass media, state's encouragement). We analyzed research data from 396 consumers to measure the impacting level of these factors. The convenient sampling method was used to collect the research sample. The measurement applied a 5-point Likert scale classifying from 1-completely disagree to 5-completely agree. Based on previous studies, the research model was recommended. We had estimated the reliability of the scales through Cronbach's Alpha and composite reliability. The research data is analyzed by using Structural Equation Model method (SEM). The findings of the study suggest that psychological factors (health concern, environmental concern, consumer awareness of organic foods) had a significantly positive influence on consumer's purchase attention toward organic food. The results also revealed that environmental factors (family's opinion, friends and colleagues' opinion, influence of celebrities, expert's opinion, mass media) were positively linked to consumer's purchase attention toward organic food.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.115-139
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• 2012

Civil proceedings, surveyed results and medical expenses that are evidenced by expert witness are just one of the methods of proof. Since a judge makes decision by synthesizing all evidences on a concerned case, thus the judgement would be different from that of expert witness. It is not rational for medical institutions, of which priorities are medical treatment, to give priority to disability decision. However, despite of its importance, medical institutions less recognize about the necessity of procedural stability and predictability in expert valuation. It is necessary to identify actual problems and investigate rational alternatives to acquire fairness in valuation procedures and accuracy in calculating future medical expenses. Therefore, this research explores the problems and realities of evaluation process in medical treatments, and then discuss the alternatives of written expert opinion and estimation of future medical expenses.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.92-98
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• 2010

The AHP methodology compares criteria, or alternatives with respect to a criterion, in a natural, pairwise mode. AHP has been applied in a wide variety of applications multi objective decision making being just one. If a group of expert with different aspect, they need some way to revise expert group. We proposed the concatenation of expert to survey the AHP pairwise question for multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we suggest a way to revise the expert's priorities in hierarch using concept of different group opinion.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.221-227
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• 2017

Background: As personalized healthcare industry has attracted much attention, big data analysis of healthcare data is essential. Lots of healthcare data such as product labeling, biomedical literature and social media data are unstructured, extracting meaningful information from the unstructured text data are becoming important. In particular, text mining for adverse drug reactions (ADRs) reports is able to provide signal information to predict and detect adverse drug reactions. There has been no study on text analysis of expert opinion on Korea Adverse Event Reporting System (KAERS) databases in Korea. Methods: Expert opinion text of KAERS database provided by Korea Institute of Drug Safety & Risk Management (KIDS-KD) are analyzed. To understand the whole text, word frequency analysis are performed, and to look for important keywords from the text TF-IDF weight analysis are performed. Also, related keywords with the important keywords are presented by calculating correlation coefficient. Results: Among total 90,522 reports, 120 insulin ADR report and 858 tramadol ADR report were analyzed. The ADRs such as dizziness, headache, vomiting, dyspepsia, and shock were ranked in order in the insulin data, while the ADR symptoms such as vomiting, 어지러움, dizziness, dyspepsia and constipation were ranked in order in the tramadol data as the most frequently used keywords. Conclusion: Using text mining of the expert opinion in KIDS-KD, frequently mentioned ADRs and medications are easily recovered. Text mining in ADRs research is able to play an important role in detecting signal information and prediction of ADRs.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.24 no.12A
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• pp.2025-2033
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• 1999

In this paper, we forecast launching time of the commercial IMT-2000 service as feb. 2001, according to expert’s opinion, and most of they forecast rapid evolution. And, we propose two different models according to two cases for competition power of price for IMT-2000 service subscriber demand forecasting. In this paper, we combine the expert’s opinion method with the growth curve model for demand forecasting for new products in order to reduce error of the demand forecasting that haven’t past references. The estimation of needed coefficients for each growth curve model is based on experts’ subjective opinions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.331-345
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• 2007

Uncertainties enter a complex analysis from a variety of sources: variability, lack of data, human errors, model simplification and lack of understanding of the underlying physics. However, for many important engineering applications insufficient data are available to justify the choice of a particular probability density function (PDF). Sometimes the only data available are in the form of interval estimates which represent, often conflicting, expert opinion. In this paper we demonstrate that Bayesian estimation techniques can successfully be used in applications where only vague interval measurements are available. The proposed approach is intended to fit within a probabilistic framework, which is established and widely accepted. To circumvent the problem of selecting a specific PDF when only little or vague data are available, a hierarchical model of a continuous family of PDF's is used. The classical Bayesian estimation methods are expanded to make use of imprecise interval data. Each of the expert opinions (interval data) are interpreted as random interval samples of a parent PDF. Consequently, a partial conflict between experts is automatically accounted for through the likelihood function.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.121-147
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• 2016

Factual issues in most patent litigation are related to very complicated techniques. Thus, the courts has emphasised that the technology in dispute has to be read and understood through the eyes of a person to whom it is directed. Therefore, among the various processes in federal litigation, most litigation in the field of patent infringement relies on at least some expert evidence. This paper focuses on issues regarding patent dispute evidence, and explore whether there are unresolved issues in evidential rules and procedures of patent proceedings. Further, this paper seeks to demonstrate that both the parties and the courts in patent disputes generally benefit from the current evidence system. However, in a number of Australian cases, the scope of expert evidence in patent cases has been strictly limited. Australian Government identified uncertain issues associated with the present patent enforcement system, due to factors such as a low level of knowledge about what patent rights entail, the high degree of uncertainty of outcome in legal proceedings, etc. Arbitration shall be reviewed and suggested as an alternative to tackling the ongoing problems in the trial system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.440-443
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• 2005

The wide spread of internet business recently necessitates recommendation systems which can recommend the most suitable product fur customer demands. Currently the recommendation systems use content-based filtering and/or collaborative filtering methods, which are unable both to explain the reason for the recommendation and to reflect constantly changing requirements of the users. These methods guarantee good efficiency only if there is a lot of information about users. This paper proposes an algorithm called 'demand articulate & integration' which can perceive user's continuously varying intents and recommend proper contents. A method of knowledge classification which can be applicable to this algorithm is also developed in order to disassemble knowledge into basic units and articulate indices. The algorithm provides recommendation outputs that are close to expert's opinion through the tracing of articulate index. As a case study, a knowledge base for heritage information is constructed with the expert guide's knowledge. An intelligent recommendation system that can guide heritage tour as good as the expert guider is developed.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.417-427
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• 2019

This article puts forward the opinion of a policy expert, who had been involved in Korea's science and technology policy for 30 years, about technology policy for SMEs. This article first explains why technology policies for SMEs are needed, and from what point of view. The next section looks at the current problems facing Korean SMEs, followed by the introduction of past and current polices to support SMEs. The comparison between current issues facing SMEs and past and current policies leads to lessons that can be learned. There are four lessons for the policy itself and three for the implementation of these policies. As for policy, the first four are about stages of development, concentration, R&D and diffusion, and policy mix. The latter three are policymakers, institutional building, and cooperation between ministries. This article makesfour suggestions for future policy: the importance of startups' culture, cooperation with others, infrastructure to reduce uncertainty, and policy monitoring and evaluation.