• Title/Summary/Keyword: expected utility

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Limits of Logit Models in Transportation Policy Evaluation : Expected Utilities in Logit Models (교통정책평가에 있어 Logit모형의 한계 : Logit모형에 있어서의 기대효용)

  • 조중래
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 1987
  • This article shows that, in the logit models, the(conditional) expected utility of the decision makers choosing an alternative is invariant across all alternatives. This property of the logit model implies that the logit model can not explain the distributional wealfare effects of a transportation policy (or transportation investment) among different alternatives, and thus the logit model is not proper for evaluating transportation policy in equity aspects.

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PRELIMINARY STUDY REGARDING A DB CONSTRUCTION PLAN TO SUPPORT PERFORMANCE TECHNICAL A REMODELING ELEMENT TO BIM

  • Yong-Hyun Lee;Jong-soon Park;Jong-Sik Lee;Jae-Sauk Lee;Jae-Youl Chun
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1300-1306
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    • 2009
  • If a brief direction and plan for a remodeling project are decided, it may moves to a concrete design step of which to select the most suitable alternative out of applicable compounding devices to reveal dynamic drifting performance. However, the volume of knowledge baseed utility which can refer to systematic evaluation regarding remodeling element technology and the accumulation of realistic cases are not only sufficient, but also short including its system for expression and consistency. Therefore, it may necessary to deliver the main frame which make enables the Owner, designer and builder to get performance technology for applying advanced remodeling element and knowledge based utility. There is a necessity to provide an information with latest made by virtue of modeling in the 3D/4D based on construction-based knowledge etc. which we can use for life cycle of a project, as a prominent way of knowledge based utility. Then, it is sure that remodeling can become more activative by sharing of knowledge based utility formed in electronic 3D/4D which is a systematic and expressed consistently to a performance and applicability in preservation of savings. It is expected for modeling of the 3D/4D in knowledge based utility enables to verify the practicability of each technology on effective application, and the use of technology might be spread widely due its obvious and oriented expressions. Further, this knowledge based utility formed in electronic 3D/4D may applicable for VE process in addition to remodeling design fields.

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Measuring Consumer Preferences Using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (다속성 효용이론을 활용한 소비자 선호조사)

  • Ahn, Jae-Hyeon;Bang, Young-Sok;Han, Sang-Pil
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2008
  • Based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), we present a survey method to measure consumer preferences. The multi-attribute utility theory has been used to make decisions in OR/MS field; however, we show that the method can be effectively used to estimate the demand for new services by measuring individual level utility function. Because conjoint method has been widely used to measure consumer preferences for new products and services, we compare the pros and cons of two consumer preference survey methods. Further, we illustrate how swing weighing method can be effectively used to elicit customer preferences especially for new telecommunications services, Multi-attribute utility theory is a compositional approach for modeling customer preference, in which researchers calculate overall service utility by summing up the evaluation results for each attribute. On the contrary, conjoint method is a decompositional approach, which requires holistic evaluations for profiles. Partworth for each attribute is derived or estimated based on the evaluation, and finally consumer preferences for each profile are calculated. However, if the profiles are quite new and unfamiliar to the survey respondents, they will find it very difficult to accurately evaluate the profiles. We believe that the multi-attribute utility theory-based survey method is more appropriate than the conjoint method, because respondents only need to assess attribute level preferences and not holistic assessment. We chose swing weighting method among many weight assessment methods in multi-attribute utility theory, because it is designed to perform in a simple and fast manner. As illustrated in Clemen and Reilly (2001), to assess swing weights, the first step is to create the worst possible outcome as a benchmark by setting the worst level on each of the attributes. Then, each of the succeeding rows "swings" one of the attributes from worst to best. Upon constructing the swing table, respondents rank order the outcomes (rows). The next step is to rate the outcomes in which the rating for the benchmark is set to be 0 and the rating for the best outcome to be 100, and the ratings for other outcomes are determined in the ranges between 0 and 100. In calculating weight for each attribute, ratings are normalized by the total sum of all ratings. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, we elicited and analyzed individual-level customer preference for new telecommunication services-WiBro and HSDPA. We began with a randomly selected 800 interviewees, and reduced them to 432 because other remaining ones were related to the people who did not show strong intention for subscription to new telecommunications services. For each combination of content and handset, number of responses which favored WiBro and HSDPA were counted, respectively. It was assumed that interviewee favors a specific service when expected utility is greater than that of competing service(s). Then, the market share of each service was calculated by normalizing the total number of responses which preferred each service. Holistic evaluation of new and unfamiliar service is a tough challenge for survey respondents. We have developed a simple and easy method to assess individual level preference by estimating weight of each attribute. Swing method was applied for this purpose. We believe that estimating individual level preference will be quite flexibly used to predict market performance of new services in many different business environments.

A fundamental study on the development of feasibility assessment system for utility tunnel by urban patterns (도심지 유형별 공동구 설치 타당성 평가시스템 개발에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Lee, Seong-Won;Sim, Young-Jong;Na, Gwi-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.11-27
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    • 2017
  • The road network system of major domestic urban areas such as city of Seoul was rapidly developed and regionally expanded. In addition, many kinds of life-lines such as electrical cables, telephone cables, water&sewerage lines, heat&cold conduits and gas lines were needed in order for urban residents to live comfortably. Therefore, most of the life-lines were individually buried in underground and individually managed. The utility tunnel is defined as the urban planning facilities for commonly installing life-lines in the National Land Planning Act. Expectation effectiveness of urban utility tunnels is reducing repeated excavation of roads, improvement of urban landscape; road pavement durability; driving performance and traffic flow. It can also be expected that ensuring disaster safety for earthquakes and sinkholes, smart-grind and electric vehicle supply, rapid response to changes in future living environment and etc. Therefore, necessity of urban utility tunnels has recently increased. However, all of the constructed utility tunnels are cut-and-cover tunnels domestically, which is included in development of new-town areas. Since urban areas can not accommodate all buried life-lines, it is necessary to study the feasibility assessment system for utility tunnel by urban patterns and capacity optimization for urban utility tunnels. In this study, we break away from the new-town utility tunnels and suggest a quantitative assessment model based on the evaluation index for urban areas. In addition, we also develop a program that can implement a quantitative evaluation system by subdividing the feasibility assessment system of urban patterns. Ultimately, this study can contribute to be activated the urban utility tunnel.

A preliminary Study on Regulatory Frameworks for Consumer Product Safty Policy (소비자상품안전을 위한 규제분석틀에 대한 기초연구)

  • 김용희
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.213-223
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    • 1989
  • Decision frameworks for product safty policy are developed in theory and practice. Product characteristic approach and expected utility analysis are applied to situations involving risk and misinformation. Eight types of regulatory frameworks are explained and critiqued form practical purposes on behalf of consumer policy makers. Various international organizations and their roles are briefly reviewed.

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A Study on the Characteristics of Housing Choice Behavior of Expected Purchasers of the Medium Size Apartments at the Suburbs of Ulsan City (울산시 도심외곽지역 중형아파트 구매예정자의 주택선택 행동특성)

  • 박경옥;김선중;김은덕
    • Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2002
  • The objective of this study is to find out demographic characteristics, motivation to move, housing values, and present housing satisfaction of expected purchasers, so that the results contribute to better planning of the medium size apartments at Guyoung in Ulsan city The field survey on 472 households has been carried out at suburbs of Ulsan. Major findings are as follows : 1) Demographic characteristics, motivation to move, housing values, and present housing satisfaction differ as the size expected purchasers live in at present. 2) To increase the motivation to move to Guyoung, well designed of planning common space, parking area, cultural and welfare facilities is essential. 3) To enhance the satisfaction level, better plan of dinning space and second bathroom is important for the apartments of 20py.s(~$m^2$), and that of family bathroom and utility space for the apartments of 30py.s(~$m^2$).

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An Empirical Study on the Consumer Value of the Bundle Services in the Electricity Market (전력시장 결합 서비스에 대한 소비자 가치 분석)

  • Lee, Yoo-Soo;Won, DooHwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-231
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    • 2018
  • It is expected that the korean power retail market will be reorganized someday. Thus, this study analyzes the changes in consumers' utility level when new companies enter the retail market and offer various bundled services. For the analysis, the utility function of the consumers was estimated using the conjoint choice method. The results of the analysis can be summarized in two-folds. First, consumer will still prefer KEPCO in electricity sales. Therefore, difficulties can be expected when new companies enter the power retail market. Second, consumers do not favor bundled services in the electricity market also. Bundled services would not provide as much as utility each service provide separately.

The Design of Optimal Recall Insurance Product (최적 리콜보험상품 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 김두철
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2002
  • In the process of designing pareto optimal insurance contract, it is necessary to assume that insurance contract conditions are endogenous to build a model. The expected utility, the non-expected utility and the state-dependent utility function can be applied as a insurance decision making principle. The insurance costs may have the linear, convex, and concave ralationship with the indemnity schedule. However, the sunk cost and fixed cost must be recognized. The deductible which decides whether an insurance contract to be a full or partial insurance contract can exist in the forms of straight deductible or diminishing deductible. Indeciding the level of deductible, the types of the insurance and the risks to be insured should be the deciding factors. Especially for recall insurance, there is relatively high chance that the recalling company being bankrupt. Therefore, the possibility of bankrupcy should be the considering factor in deciding the policy limit. The existence of the incomplete market and uninsurable background risk should be understood as restricting conditions of the pareto-optimal insurance contract.

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Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis for the Decision Support of Countermeasures in Early Phase of a Nuclear Emergency (원자력 사고시 초기 비상대응 결정지원을 위한 다속성 효용 분석법의 적용)

  • Hwang, Won-Tae;Kim, Eun-Han;Suh, Kyung-Suk;Jeong, Hyo-Joon;Han, Moon-Hee;Lee, Chang-Woo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2004
  • A multi-attribute utility analysis was investigated as a tool for the decision support of countermeasures in early phase of a nuclear accident. The utility function of attributes was assumed to be the second order polynomial expressions, and the weighting constant of attributes was determined using a swing weighting method. Because the main objective of this study focuses on the applicability of a multi-attribute utility analysis as a tool for the decision support of countermeasures in early phase of a nuclear accident, less quantifiable attributes were not included due to lack of information. In postulated accidental scenarios for the application of the designed methodology, the variation of the numerical values of total utility for the considered actions, e.g. sheltering, evacuation and no action, was investigated according to the variation of attributes. As a result, it was shown that the numerical values of total utility for the actions are distinctly different depending on the exposure dose and monetary value of dose. As increasing in both attributes, the rank of the numerical values of total utility increased for evacuation, which is more extreme action than for sheltering, while that of no action decreased. As expected probability of high dose is higher, the break-even values for the monetary value of dose, which are the monetary value of dose when the ranking of actions is changed, were lower. In audition, as aversion psychology for dose is higher, the break-even values for dose were lower.