• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.557-572
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• 2009

공무원연금제도가 도입된 지 40여 년이 지난 현재, 기대여명의 증가로 인해 수급자가 크게 늘어나 부양률이 상승하면서 공무원연금 재정이 문제가 되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 현재 공무원연금제도와 노령화 수준을 반영한 확률모형을 설정하여 개인가입자의 혜택수준을 검토하며, 연금재정의 안정성을 모의실험 하였다. 연구방법으로는 개인가입자별 총기여금과 총수령금의 기대값을 비교하는 방법과 몬테카를로 모의시행을 통해 기금의 파산확률 및 준비금, 국가보전금을 구해보는 방법을 이용하였다.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2008

Net present value (NPV) and return on investment (ROI) are commonly used to evaluate investment in new technologies. Sometimes, however, measuring the value of investment in new IT becomes very difficult due to its wide scope of application coupled with embedded options in its adoption. Therefore, comprehensive but easily understandable methodologies are needed to solve the complicated problems resulting from the complexity of new technologies. This paper employs a real option analysis to evaluate RFID adoption in the supply chain. Real options analysis should be a better way to evaluate a disruptive technology like RFID. However, the pure (probabilistic) real option rule characterizes the present value of expected cash flows and the expected costs by a single number, which is not realistic in many cases. To solve the problem, this paper considers the real option rule in a more realistic setting, namely, when the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.

• 가정과삶의질연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.61-76
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• 1996

In this study it was assumed that planning was composed of three activities -resource assessment standard setting information seeking and implementing was composed of money investment and time investment, Two variable groups which were assumed to be related with planning and implementing were household characteristics and housewife's value characteristics. Money investment to children's education was significantly affected by income, net wealth of household instrumental value of eduation and information seeking about private education. The variables assumed to affect time investment to children's education were instrumental value of education information seeking about private education and expected education level.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.695-699
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• 2009

경쟁력을 유지하기 위해 기업은 다양한 신제품들을 동시 다발적으로 개발해야 한다. 이런 제품들은 시장에 출시되기 전에 품질, 안정성, 내구성 등 다양한 시험(test)들을 거쳐야 한다. 여러 시험 수행 일정을 조정함으로 그로 인한 전체 발생 비용을 고려한 신제품의 순현재 가치(NPV, net present value)가 변하게 되며 이를 최대로 하기 위한 시스템적 방법이 필요하다. 이러한 필요성에 따라서 본 연구에서는 현실적 자원 제약이 고려된 상황에서 다제품(multiple products)들의 최적 시험 순서를 결정할 수 있는 모델을 제시하였다. 또한 수학적 예제를 통해서 테스트 수행 시간이 확률적으로 주어진 경우에도 적용할 수 있다는 것을 검증하였다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.109-123
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• 2008

This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.169-176
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• 2013

The price and revenue of rice are expected to decrease due to increasing rice imports, decreasing consumption and the discontinuance of the government's rice procurement. This degenerating profitability is leading to a rise in the cultivation of upland-crops such as beans, fodder crops and fruits in paddy fields. However, there is a lack of research on the selection of rice substitute crops which are adaptable to the relevant region through profitability analysis. This research, therefore, analyzed investment profitability of rice substitute crops for Cheorwon-gun area in Kangwon province. The study applied net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), which fit for mutually exclusive investments that make one selection to the exclusion of other crops. Target crops are green house plants in Cheorwon-gun area. Financial analysis showed paprika and cucumber have investment feasibility for automated vinyl greenhouses and conventional plastic greenhouses respectively.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.137-145
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• 2007

In traditional financial theory, the discount cash flow model(DCF or NPV) operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value(NPV) of a project is the measure of the present value of expected net cash flows. Thus, investing in a positive(negative) NPV project will increase(decrease) firm value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options of the managerial flexibilities. Real option valuation(ROV) considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding the implementation of investment projects and the deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real assets based on the Black-Sholes option pricing model, the binomial option pricing model, and the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses those models to obtain point estimates of real option value with the G7- HSR350X(high-speed train).

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1997년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집; 한국전력공사 서울연수원; 17-18 Oct. 1997
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• pp.1758-1761
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• 1997

The problem of long range capacity expansion planing for chemical processing network under uncertain demand forecast secnarios is addressed. This optimization problem involves capactiy expansion timing and sizing of each chemical processing unit to maximize the expected net present value considering the deviation of net present values and the excess capacity over a given time horizon. A multiperiod mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model that is both solution and modle robust for any realization of demand scenarios is developed using the two-stage stochastic programming algorithm. Two example problems are considered to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제36권2_1호
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• pp.167-178
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• 2020

2015년 발사된 이후 KOMPSAT-3A 영상정보가 여러 분야에서 활용되고 있다. 그러나 실제 육상 환경의 분석에 필요한 지표 반사도를 얻을 수 있는 도구 개발이 이루어지지 않아서 식생 지수 산정 등과 같이 이러한 자료를 적용하는 과학적 분석과 응용 분야의 확산에는 한계가 있었다. 지표 반사도는 절대 대기 보정 처리 과정을 수행하여 얻어지는 성과물이다. 이 연구에서는 OTB 오픈 소스 확장 프로그램으로부터 KOMPSAT-3A 영상정보의 대기 반사도와 지표 반사도를 구하고, 국제 검보정 포털 RadCalNet에서 제공하는 대기 반사도와 지표 반사도 현장 측정 자료를 이용하여 정확도를 비교 검증하고자 한다. 또한 같은 지역의 Landsat-8 OLI 영상으로부터 지표 반사도를 구하고 비교 검증 실험에 같이 적용하였다. 검증 실험 결과로 KOMPSAT-3A 영상의 대기 반사도는 같은 분광대역에 해당하는 RadCalNet 자료의 평균값과 비교했을 때 0.00에서 1.00까지의 범위에서 최대 ± 0.02 차이가 보이는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. KOMPSAT-3A 영상의 지표 반사도 산출 결과는 RadCalNet 자료와 0.02에서 0.04까지의 차이 값을 갖는 높은 일치도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과들은 KOMPSAT-3A 영상의 분석대기자료(Analysis Ready Data)로서의 활용 가능성을 증가시키는 기본 자료로 사용할 수 있다. 또한 이 연구에서 개발된 도구와 연구 방법은 향후 국토, 농업, 산림 활용을 위한 차세대 중형 위성 영상자료의 각 센서 모델에 맞는 확장 프로그램 개발과 검증에도 적용이 가능할 것으로 생각한다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.