• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-88
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• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.83-98
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• 2012

In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.57-78
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• 2020

With the development of the Internet, consumers have had an opportunity to check product information easily through E-Commerce. Product reviews used in the process of purchasing goods are based on user experience, allowing consumers to engage as producers of information as well as refer to information. This can be a way to increase the efficiency of purchasing decisions from the perspective of consumers, and from the seller's point of view, it can help develop products and strengthen their competitiveness. However, it takes a lot of time and effort to understand the overall assessment and assessment dimensions of the products that I think are important in reading the vast amount of product reviews offered by E-Commerce for the products consumers want to compare. This is because product reviews are unstructured information and it is difficult to read sentiment of reviews and assessment dimension immediately. For example, consumers who want to purchase a laptop would like to check the assessment of comparative products at each dimension, such as performance, weight, delivery, speed, and design. Therefore, in this paper, we would like to propose a method to automatically generate multi-dimensional product assessment scores in product reviews that we would like to compare. The methods presented in this study consist largely of two phases. One is the pre-preparation phase and the second is the individual product scoring phase. In the pre-preparation phase, a dimensioned classification model and a sentiment analysis model are created based on a review of the large category product group review. By combining word embedding and association analysis, the dimensioned classification model complements the limitation that word embedding methods for finding relevance between dimensions and words in existing studies see only the distance of words in sentences. Sentiment analysis models generate CNN models by organizing learning data tagged with positives and negatives on a phrase unit for accurate polarity detection. Through this, the individual product scoring phase applies the models pre-prepared for the phrase unit review. Multi-dimensional assessment scores can be obtained by aggregating them by assessment dimension according to the proportion of reviews organized like this, which are grouped among those that are judged to describe a specific dimension for each phrase. In the experiment of this paper, approximately 260,000 reviews of the large category product group are collected to form a dimensioned classification model and a sentiment analysis model. In addition, reviews of the laptops of S and L companies selling at E-Commerce are collected and used as experimental data, respectively. The dimensioned classification model classified individual product reviews broken down into phrases into six assessment dimensions and combined the existing word embedding method with an association analysis indicating frequency between words and dimensions. As a result of combining word embedding and association analysis, the accuracy of the model increased by 13.7%. The sentiment analysis models could be seen to closely analyze the assessment when they were taught in a phrase unit rather than in sentences. As a result, it was confirmed that the accuracy was 29.4% higher than the sentence-based model. Through this study, both sellers and consumers can expect efficient decision making in purchasing and product development, given that they can make multi-dimensional comparisons of products. In addition, text reviews, which are unstructured data, were transformed into objective values such as frequency and morpheme, and they were analysed together using word embedding and association analysis to improve the objectivity aspects of more precise multi-dimensional analysis and research. This will be an attractive analysis model in terms of not only enabling more effective service deployment during the evolving E-Commerce market and fierce competition, but also satisfying both customers.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.219-240
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• 2018

Sentiment analysis, which is one of the text mining techniques, is a method for extracting subjective content embedded in text documents. Recently, the sentiment analysis methods have been widely used in many fields. As good examples, data-driven surveys are based on analyzing the subjectivity of text data posted by users and market researches are conducted by analyzing users' review posts to quantify users' reputation on a target product. The basic method of sentiment analysis is to use sentiment dictionary (or lexicon), a list of sentiment vocabularies with positive, neutral, or negative semantics. In general, the meaning of many sentiment words is likely to be different across domains. For example, a sentiment word, 'sad' indicates negative meaning in many fields but a movie. In order to perform accurate sentiment analysis, we need to build the sentiment dictionary for a given domain. However, such a method of building the sentiment lexicon is time-consuming and various sentiment vocabularies are not included without the use of general-purpose sentiment lexicon. In order to address this problem, several studies have been carried out to construct the sentiment lexicon suitable for a specific domain based on 'OPEN HANGUL' and 'SentiWordNet', which are general-purpose sentiment lexicons. However, OPEN HANGUL is no longer being serviced and SentiWordNet does not work well because of language difference in the process of converting Korean word into English word. There are restrictions on the use of such general-purpose sentiment lexicons as seed data for building the sentiment lexicon for a specific domain. In this article, we construct 'KNU Korean Sentiment Lexicon (KNU-KSL)', a new general-purpose Korean sentiment dictionary that is more advanced than existing general-purpose lexicons. The proposed dictionary, which is a list of domain-independent sentiment words such as 'thank you', 'worthy', and 'impressed', is built to quickly construct the sentiment dictionary for a target domain. Especially, it constructs sentiment vocabularies by analyzing the glosses contained in Standard Korean Language Dictionary (SKLD) by the following procedures: First, we propose a sentiment classification model based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM). Second, the proposed deep learning model automatically classifies each of glosses to either positive or negative meaning. Third, positive words and phrases are extracted from the glosses classified as positive meaning, while negative words and phrases are extracted from the glosses classified as negative meaning. Our experimental results show that the average accuracy of the proposed sentiment classification model is up to 89.45%. In addition, the sentiment dictionary is more extended using various external sources including SentiWordNet, SenticNet, Emotional Verbs, and Sentiment Lexicon 0603. Furthermore, we add sentiment information about frequently used coined words and emoticons that are used mainly on the Web. The KNU-KSL contains a total of 14,843 sentiment vocabularies, each of which is one of 1-grams, 2-grams, phrases, and sentence patterns. Unlike existing sentiment dictionaries, it is composed of words that are not affected by particular domains. The recent trend on sentiment analysis is to use deep learning technique without sentiment dictionaries. The importance of developing sentiment dictionaries is declined gradually. However, one of recent studies shows that the words in the sentiment dictionary can be used as features of deep learning models, resulting in the sentiment analysis performed with higher accuracy (Teng, Z., 2016). This result indicates that the sentiment dictionary is used not only for sentiment analysis but also as features of deep learning models for improving accuracy. The proposed dictionary can be used as a basic data for constructing the sentiment lexicon of a particular domain and as features of deep learning models. It is also useful to automatically and quickly build large training sets for deep learning models.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.10 no.6 s.52
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• pp.93-102
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• 2006

Control input's saturation of active control devices for large structures under large external disturbances are often occurred. It is more difficult to obtain the exact values of mass and stiffness as structures are higher. The modelling errors between mathematical models and real structures must be also included as parameter uncertainties. Therefore, in active vibration control of civil engineering structures like buildings and bridges, the robust saturation controller design method considering both control input's saturation and parameter uncertainties of system is needed. In this paper, stabilities of linear optimal controller LQR, modified bang-bang controller, saturated sliding mode controller, and robust saturation controller among various controllers which have been studied and applied to active vibration control of buildings are investigated. Especially, unstable phenomena of the LQR, the modified bang-bang controller and the saturated sliding mode controller when the control input is saturated or parameter uncertainties exist are presented to show the necessity of the robust saturation controller. The robust stability of the robust saturation controller are shown through a numerical example of a 2DOF linear vibrating system and an experimental test of the two-story structure with an active mass damper (AMD).

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.1-15
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• 1997

This paper presents substructural identification methods for the assessment of local damages in complex and large structural systems. For this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for a substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. Using the substructural methods, the number of unknown parameters for each identification can be significantly reduced, hence the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. Secondly, the damage index is defined as the ratio of the current stiffness to the baseline value at each element for the damage assessment. The indirect estimation method was performed using the estimated results from the identification of the system matrices from the substructural identification. To demonstrate the proposed techniques, several simulation and experimental example analyses are carried out for structural models of a 2-span truss structure, a 3-span continuous beam model and 3-story building model. The results indicate that the present substructural identification method and damage estimation methods are effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.106-116
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• 2016

MTO (Make to Order) is a manufacturing process in which manufacturing starts only after a customer's order is received. Manufacturing after receiving customer's orders means to start a pull-type supply chain operation because manufacturing is performed when demand is confirmed, i.e. being pulled by demand (The opposite business model is to manufacture products for stock MTS (Make to Stock), which is push-type production). There are also BTO (Build to Order) and ATO (Assemble To Order) in which assembly starts according to demand. Lean manufacturing by MTO is very efficient system. Nevertheless, the process industry, generally, which has a high fixed cost burden due to large-scale investment is suitable for mass production of small pieces or 'mass customization' defined recently. The process industry produces large quantities at one time because of the lack of manufacturing flexibility due to long time for model change or job change, and high loss during line-down (shutdown). As a result, it has a lot of inventory and costs are increased. In order to reduce the cost due to the characteristics of the process industry, which has a high fixed cost per hour, it operates a stock production system in which it is made and sold regardless of the order of the customer. Therefore, in a business environment where the external environment changes greatly, the inventory is not sold and it becomes obsolete. As a result, the company's costs increase, profits fall, and it make more difficult to survive in the competition. Based on the customer's order, we have built a new method for order system to meet the characteristics of the process industry by producing it as a high-profitable model. The design elements are designed by deriving the functions to satisfy the Y by collecting the internal and external VOC (voice of customer), and the design elements are verified through the conversion function. And the Y is satisfied through the pilot test verified and supplemented. By operating this make to order system, we have reduced bad inventories, lowered costs, and improved lead time in terms of delivery competitiveness. Make to order system in the process industry is effective for the display glass industry, for example, B and C groups which are non-flagship models, have confirmed that the line is down when there is no order, and A group which is flagship model, have confirmed stock production when there is no order.

• Cartoon and Animation Studies
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• s.37
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• pp.143-158
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• 2014

In the modeling processes of 3D computer animation, methods to build optimal work conditions to realize real forms for more efficient works have been advanced. Digital sculpting software, published in 1999, ZBrush has been positioned as an essential factor in character model work requiring of realistic descriptions through different manufacturing methods from previous modeling work processes and easy shape realization. Their functional areas are expanding. So, in this production case paper, as a method to product more optimized animation character models, the efficiency of production method linking digital sculpting software (Z-Brush) and animation production software (Maya) was deliberated and its consequences and implications are suggested. To this end, first the technical features of polygon modeling and Retopology were reviewed. Second, based on it, the efficiency of animation character modeling work processes through step linking ZBrush and Maya suggested in this paper was analyzed. Third, based on the features drawn before, in order to prove the hypothesis on modeling optimization method suggested in this paper, the production process of character Dumvee from a short animation film, 'Cula & Mina' was analyzed as an example. Through this study, it was found that technical approach easiness and high level of completion could be realized through two software linked work processes. This study is considered to be a reference for optimizing production process of related industries or modeling-related classes by deliberating different modeling process linked systems.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.381-388
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• 2010

In this study, characteristics of the seismic response of the non-earthquake resistant reinforced concrete (RC) frame were identified. The test building is designed to withstand only gravity loads and not in compliance with modern seismic codes. Smooth bars were utilized for the reinforcement. Members are provided with minimal amount of stirrups to withstand low levels of shear forces and the core concrete is virtually not confined. Columns are slender and more flexible than beams, and beam-column connections were built without stirrups. Through the modeling of an example RC frame, the feasibility of the fiber elementbased 3D nonlinear analysis method was investigated. Since the torsion is governed by the fundamental mode shape of the structure under dynamic loading, pushover analysis cannot predict torsional response accurately. Hence, dynamic response history analysis is a more appropriate analysis method to estimate the response of an asymmetric building. The latter method was shown to be accurate in representing global responses by the comparison of the analytical and experimental results. Analytical models without rigid links provided a good estimation of reduced stiffness and strength of the test structure due to bond-slip, by forming plastic hinges closer to the column ends. However, the absence of a proper model to represent the bond-slip poased the limitations on the current inelastic analysis schemes for the seismic analysis of buildings especially for those with round steel reinforcements. Thus, development of the appropriate bond-slip model is in need to achieve more accurate analysis.

• Archives of design research
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.351-362
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• 2004

Generally, they respond to a phenomenon, with their any way, which they have looked at in their surroundings, and also put into their action successively and variously according as what it is. A person who has not so much problems in experiential education added to mental and physical ability prefers controlling his manner by himself as seeing, listening and feeling to being cured it by other physical support. Meanwhile, even though there are tools that we use conveniently in everyday life, it is sometimes required that user is able to control his action by himself with a certain interactive function to deal with a accidental situation. For example, in the home, when they were cooking, washing dishes and taking a bath they would not often control their minds on how to act about flowing water through the faucet going back and forth between saving and easygoing. By reasons of those statements, the project has been studied to propose the new conceptual faucet which digital technology is applied to, for recognizing the volume of water flowed through water pipe as counting it with built-in flow meter, and then saving water as controling the water-flow with faucet lever. It means that homemakers can observe the flow rate of water from the faucet placed in front of the sink in kitchen and control it right away for saving water. For studying this project, the kinds and features of the various flow-meters that measure the volume of water-flow were researched and analyzed for taking a reasonable type to the new ideal faucet. According to this analyzing, turbine-flow-meter was selected as appropriate form for the digital display-built-in faucet that would be presented in this project. As the next step, the basic structure was created for developing a new conceptual faucet. Finally two models have been presented through several steps for making the suitable shape to the new style faucet.