• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation of natural disaster

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Development for the function of Wind wave Damage Estimation at the Western Coastal Zone based on Disaster Statistics (재해통계기반 서해 연안지역의 풍랑피해예측함수 개발)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Kwak, Kil Sin;Ahn, Si Hyung;Yang, Da Un;Son, Jong Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.14-22
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    • 2017
  • The frequency and scale of natural disasters due to the abnormal climate phenomena caused by global warming have being increasing all over the world. Various natural disasters, such as typhoons, earthquakes, floods, heavy rain, drought, sweltering heat, wind waves, tsunamis and so on, can cause damage to human life. Especially, the damage caused by natural disasters such as the Earthquake of Japan, hurricane Katrina in the United States, typhoon Maemi and so on, have been enormous. At this stage, it is difficult to estimate the scale of damage due to (future) natural disasters and cope with them. However, if we could predict the scale of damage at the disaster response level, the damage could be reduced by responding to them promptly. In the present study, therefore, among the many types of natural disaster, we developed a function to estimate the damage due to wind waves caused by sea winds and waves. We collected the damage records from the Disaster Report ('91~'14) published by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security about wind waves and typhoons in the western coastal zone and, in order to reflect the inflation rate, we converted the amount of damage each year into the equivalent amount in 2014. Finally, the meteorological data, such as the wave height, wind speed, tide level, wave direction, wave period and so on, were collected from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency)'s web sites, for the periods when wind wave and typhoon damage occurred. After that, the function used to estimate the wind wave damage was developed by reflecting the regional characteristics for the 9 areas of the western coastal zone.

A dynamic finite element method for the estimation of cable tension

  • Huang, Yonghui;Gan, Quan;Huang, Shiping;Wang, Ronghui
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.4
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    • pp.399-408
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    • 2018
  • Cable supported structures have been widely used in civil engineering. Cable tension estimation has great importance in cable supported structures' analysis, ranging from design to construction and from inspection to maintenance. Even though the Bernoulli-Euler beam element is commonly used in the traditional finite element method for calculation of frequency and cable tension estimation, many elements must be meshed to achieve accurate results, leading to expensive computation. To improve the accuracy and efficiency, a dynamic finite element method for estimation of cable tension is proposed. In this method, following the dynamic stiffness matrix method, frequency-dependent shape functions are adopted to derive the stiffness and mass matrices of an exact beam element that can be used for natural frequency calculation and cable tension estimation. An iterative algorithm is used for the exact beam element to determine both the exact natural frequencies and the cable tension. Illustrative examples show that, compared with the cable tension estimation method using the conventional beam element, the proposed method has a distinct advantage regarding the accuracy and the computational time.

Proposal for Wind Wave Damage Cost Estimation at the Southern Coastal Zone based on Disaster Statistics (재해통계기반 남해연안지역 풍랑피해액예측함수 제안)

  • Choo, Tai-Ho;Yun, Gwan-Seon;Kwon, Yong-Been;Park, Sang-Jin;Kim, Seong-Ryul
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.267-274
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    • 2017
  • The natural disasters such as typhoon, earthquake, flood, heavy rain, drought, sweltering heat, wind wave, tsunami and so on, are difficult to estimate the scale of damage and spot. Also, these disasters were being damaged to human life. However, if based on the disaster statistics the past damage cases are analyzed and the estimated damages can be calculated, the initial damage action can be taken immediately and based on the estimated damage scale the damage can be mitigated. In the present study, therefore, we proposed the functions of wind wave damage estimation for the southern coast. The functions are developed based on Disaster Report('91~'14) for wind wave and typhoon disaster statistics, regional characteristics and observed sea weather.

Estimation of Snow Damages using Multiple Regression Model - The Case of Gangwon Province - (대설피해액 추정을 위한 다중회귀 모형의 적용성 평가 - 강원도 지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, Soon Ho;Chung, Gunhui
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2017
  • Due to the climate change, damages of human life and property caused by natural disaster have recently been increasing consistently. In South Korea, total damage by natural disasters over 20 years from 1994 to 2013 is about 1.0 million dollars. The 13% of total damage caused by heavy snow. This is smaller amount than the damage by heavy rainfall or typhoon, but still could cause severe damage in the society. In this study, the snow damage in Gangwon region was estimated using climate variables (daily maximum snow depth, relative humidity, minimum temperature) and scoio-economic variables (Farm population density, GRDP). Multiple regression analysis with enter method was applied to estimate snow damage. As the results, adjusted R-square is above 0.7 in some sub-regions and shows the good applicability although the extreme values are not predicted well. The developed model might be applied for the prompt disaster response.

Estimation of Vulnerable Disaster Areas to Establish Busan U-City Model (부산시 U-City 모델 구축을 위한 재해취약지 분석)

  • Jeon, Sang-Soo;Jang, Hyun-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2008
  • Since the damages caused by disasters increase every year associated with wrenching climatic changes and the diversification of the social structure, the efficient management system is required to reduce damages and an assessment of the vulnerable disaster areas is necessary to prevent and mitigate the damages. In this paper, we have estimated the vulnerable disaster areas based on the records of the past damage histories and performed the risk assessment of the social infrastructures in Busan city to provide the fundamental information for the real-time monitoring system and the systematic approach for disaster prevention system to build V-City model. These results are illustrated by using Geographical Information System (GIS) and the order of vulnerable disaster areas are also estimated.

Development of the Wind Wave Damage Predicting Functions in southern sea based on Annual Disaster Reports (재해연보기반 남해연안지역 풍랑피해 예측함수 개발)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Kim, Yeong Sik;Sim, Sang Bo;Son, Jong Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.668-675
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    • 2018
  • The continuing urbanization and industrialization around the world has required a large amount of power. Therefore, construction of major infrastructure, including nuclear power plants in coastal areas, has accelerated. In addition, the intensity of natural disasters is increasing due to global warming and abnormal climate phenomena. Natural disasters are difficult to predict in terms of occurrence, location, and scale, resulting in human casualties and property damage. For these reasons, the disaster scale and damage estimation in coastal areas have become important issues. The present study examined the predictable weather data and regional ratings and developed estimating functions for wind wave damage based on the disaster statistics in the southern areas. The results of the present study are expected to help disaster management in advance of the wind wave damage. The NRMSE was used for verification. The accuracy of the NRMSE results ranged from 1.61% to 21.73%.

A Preliminary Study of the Global Application of HAZUS and ShakeMap for Loss Estimation from a Scenario Earthquake in the Korean Peninsular (지진재해예측을 위한 HAZUS와 ShakeMap의 한반도에서의 적용가능성 연구)

  • Kang, Su-Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee;Kim, Dong-Choon;Yoo, Hai-Soo;Min, Dong-Joo;Suk, Bong-Chool
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02a
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    • pp.152-155
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    • 2007
  • Efficiency and limitations of HAZUS-MH, a GIS based systematic and informative system developed by FEMA and NIBS for natural hazard loss estimations, are discussed by means of a pilot study in the Korean Peninsular. Gyeongsang-do has been selected for the test after careful reviews of previous studies including historical and modern seismicity in the peninsular. A ShakeMap for the selected scenario earthquake with magnitude 6.7 in Gyeongju area is prepared. Then, any losses due to the scenario event have been estimated using HAZUS. Results of the pilot test show that the study area may experience significant physical, economic and social damages. Detailed study in the future will provide efficient and crucial information to the decision makers and emergency agents to mitigate any disaster posed by natural hazards.

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Early Disaster Damage Assessment using Remotely Sensing Imagery: Damage Detection, Mapping and Estimation (위성영상을 활용한 실시간 재난정보 처리 기법: 재난 탐지, 매핑, 및 관리)

  • Jung, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 2012
  • Remotely sensed data provide valuable information on land monitoring due to multi-temporal observation over large areas. Especially, high resolution imagery with 0.6~1.0 m spatial resolutions contain a wealth of information and therefore are very useful for thematic mapping and monitoring change in urban areas. Recently, remote sensing technology has been successfully utilized for natural disaster monitoring such as forest fire, earthquake, and floods. In this paper, an efficient change detection method based on texture differences observed from high resolution multi-temporal data sets is proposed for mapping disaster damage and extracting damage information. It is composed of two parts: feature extraction and detection process. Timely and accurate information on disaster damage can provide an effective decision making and response related to damage.

Development of Categorization System for Efficient Calculation of Damage Cost according to Strong Wind (강풍 피해에 따른 피해비용의 효율적인 산정을 위한 분류체계 개발)

  • Song, Chang Young;Lee, Jong Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.127-132
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the plan to construct a disaster information categorization system that can be objectively and efficiently performed was suggested in order to perform disaster management task systematically. Recently, the damage of natural disasters is gradually growing larger and faster, increasing the economic loss. Especially, as for the domestic storm damage, the damage from strong wind was found to be greater than the damage from torrential rain. Also, strong wind was found to be inflicting a great damage on human life, property and agricultural crops, so the necessity to study damage restoration from strong wind is increasing. Nevertheless, the damage items categorized in the domestic disaster year book are often comprehensive or unclear in criteria, and thus fail to reflect items or matters due to actual disaster damage. It is difficult to aggregate damage accurately such that it does not correspond to the national compensation scope or the damage amount is calculated according to subjective judgment of the investigator in charge. As such, if the disaster information management is inadequate by not applying accurate categorization criteria from damage amount calculation, there can be an issue with fairness when paying the damage support aid. Therefore, this study suggested a categorization plan for objective and efficient execution of disaster information management task in order to resolve such issues. It is expected that quick and efficient execution would be possible in disaster information management and task procedure domestically by constructing systematic categorization system related to disaster information.

Estimation of the National Burden of Disease and Vulnerable Population Associated with Natural Disasters in Korea: Heavy Precipitation and Typhoon

  • Han, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Jong-Hun;Chung, Soo-Eun;Park, Jae-Hyun;Cheong, Hae-Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Medical Science
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    • v.33 no.49
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    • pp.314.1-314.15
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    • 2018
  • Background: Despite its growing significance, studies on the burden of disease associated with natural disasters from the perspective of public health were few. This study aimed at estimating the national burden of disease associated with typhoons and torrential rains in Korea. Methods: During the period of 2002-2012, 11 typhoons and five torrential rains were selected. Mortality and morbidities were defined as accentual death, injury and injury-related infection, and mental health. Their incidences were estimated from National Health Insurance Service. Case-crossover design was used to define the disaster-related excess mortality and morbidity. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were directly assessed from excess mortality and morbidity. Results: The burden of disease from typhoons increased with the intensity, with 107.7, 30.6, and 36.6 DALYs per 100,000 per event for strong, moderate, and weak typhoons, respectively. Burden of disease from torrential rains were 56.9, 52.8, and 26.4 DALYs per 100,000 per event for strong, moderate, and weak episodes, respectively. Mental disorders contributed more years lived with disability (YLDs) than did injuries in most cases, but the injury-induced YLDs associated with strong typhoon and torrential rain were higher than those of lower-intensity. The elderly was the most vulnerable to most types of disaster and storm intensities, and males younger than 65 years were more vulnerable to a strong torrential rain event. Conclusion: The intensity of torrential rain or typhoon was the strongest determinant of the burden of disease from natural disasters in Korea. Population vulnerable may vary depending on the nature and strength of the disasters.