KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Estimation of Snow Damages using Multiple Regression Model - The Case of Gangwon Province -

대설피해액 추정을 위한 다중회귀 모형의 적용성 평가 - 강원도 지역을 중심으로 -

  • 권순호 (호서대학교 건축토목환경공학부 토목공학과) ;
  • 정건희 (호서대학교 건축토목환경공학부 토목공학전공)
  • Received : 2016.10.10
  • Accepted : 2016.12.26
  • Published : 2017.02.01
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Abstract

Due to the climate change, damages of human life and property caused by natural disaster have recently been increasing consistently. In South Korea, total damage by natural disasters over 20 years from 1994 to 2013 is about 1.0 million dollars. The 13% of total damage caused by heavy snow. This is smaller amount than the damage by heavy rainfall or typhoon, but still could cause severe damage in the society. In this study, the snow damage in Gangwon region was estimated using climate variables (daily maximum snow depth, relative humidity, minimum temperature) and scoio-economic variables (Farm population density, GRDP). Multiple regression analysis with enter method was applied to estimate snow damage. As the results, adjusted R-square is above 0.7 in some sub-regions and shows the good applicability although the extreme values are not predicted well. The developed model might be applied for the prompt disaster response.

자연재난에 따른 인명 및 재산피해의 증가로 재난 예방 및 대응에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 우리나라에서도 1994년에서 2013년까지 지난 20년간 자연재해에 의한 피해액은 약 12조 원 중 대설에 의한 피해가 약 13%로 대설도 강우나 태풍보다는 작은 규모이나, 의미 있는 규모의 피해를 야기하고 있다는 것을 알 수 있다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 대설피해액 추정을 위해 강원지역을 대상으로 기후관련 요인(최심적설량, 평균습도, 최저기온), 사회 경제적 요인(농촌지역인구밀도, 지역총생산량)을 독립변수로 하는 동시입력방식의 다중회귀모형을 구축하였다. 적용결과, 극한 값들에 대한 설명력이 다소 낮기는 하지만, 수정결정계수가 0.7 이상인 경우도 다수 존재하는 등 대설 발생 시 신속한 재난 대응에 활용하기에는 적용성이 충분하다고 판단된다.

Keywords

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