• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation errors

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An Evaluation of Error Performance Estimation Schemes for DS1 Transmission Systems Carrying Live Traffic

  • Eu, J.H.
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1988
  • DS1 transmission systems use framing bit errors, bipolar violations and code-detected errors to estimate the bit error rate when determining errored and severely errored seconds. Using the coefficient of variation under the memoryless binary symmetric channel assumption, a basic framework to evaluate these estimation schemes is proposed to provide a practical guideline in determining errored and severely errored seconds which are fundamental in monitoring the real-ime error performance of DS1 transmission systems carrying live traffic. To evaluate the performance of the cyclic redundancy check code (CRC), a computer simulation model is used. Several drawbacks of the superframe format in association with real time error performance monitoring are discussed. A few recommendations are suggested in measuring errored and severely errored seconds, and determining service limit alarms through the use of the superframe format. Furthermore, we propose a new robust scheme for determining service limit alarms which take into consideration the limitations of some estimation schemes for the time interval of one second.

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A Study on Spatial Aggregation Method for Path Travel Time Estimation using Hi-Pass DSRC System (하이패스 DSRC 기반의 경로통행시간 산정을 위한 공간적 집계방안 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hwanpil;Shim, Sangwoo;Choi, Yuntaek;Kim, Dongin
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This investigational survey is to observe a proper spatial aggregation method for path travel time estimation using the hi-pass DSRC system. METHODS : The links which connect the nodes of section detectors location are used for path travel time estimation traditionally. It makes some problem such as increasing accumulation errors and processing times. In this background, the new links composition methods for spatial aggregation are considered by using some types of nodes as IC, JC, RSE combination. Path travel times estimated by new aggregation methods are compared with PBM travel times by MAE, MAPE and statistical hypothesis tests. RESULTS : The results of minimum sample size and missing rate for 5 minutes aggregation interval are satisfied except for JC link path travel time in Seoul TG~Kuemho JC. Thus, it was additionally observed for minimum sample size satisfaction. In 15, 30 minutes and 1 hour aggregation intervals, all conditions are satisfied by the minimum sample size criteria. For accuracy test and statistical hypothesis test, it has been proved that RSE, Conzone, IC, JC links have equivalent errors and statistical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS : There are some errors between the PBM and the LBM methods that come from dropping vehicles by rest areas. Consequently, this survey result means each of links compositions are available for the estimation of path travel time when PBM vehicles are missed.

Two-Part Tax for Polluting Oligopolists with Endogenous Entry (내생적 시장진입 구조에서 오염배출 과점기업에 대한 이부 환경세)

  • Park, Chul-Hi;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.459-483
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    • 2010
  • This paper constructs the two-part tax-a combined form of output tax and entrance fee-for polluting oligopolists under endogenous entry. In the presence of external damage that varies exogenously with aggregate output, we show that the two-part tax produces the ex post Pigouvian rule and thus achieves the first-best optimum. We also examine a detailed analysis of the impact of the two-part tax on social welfare and government revenues. Finally, when estimation errors exist in the process of regulation, we identify the incentive conflicts between interest groups and analyze the effects of estimation errors on determining optimal tax. In particular, we show that if the regulator takes care of both welfare loss and revenue gain under the proposed two-part tax, not only over-estimation on the slope of external damage but also under-estimation on the slope of market demand should be taken into the policy consideration.

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Characteristics of Analytical Errors Shown in the Korean Quality Control Program on Bulk Asbestos Analyses (고형물 석면분석에 대한 국내 정도관리 프로그램에서 나타난 분석 오류의 특성)

  • Kwon, Jiwoon;Chung, Eun-Kyo;Lee, In Seop;Kang, Seong-Kyu;Kim, Hyunwook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.222-226
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to identify the characteristics of analytical errors shown in the Korean quality control program on bulk asbestos analyses using polarized light microscopy (PLM). 179 participating laboratories were required to analyze 4 samples respectively and asked to classify each test sample as asbestos-containing (positive) or non-asbestos-containing (negative). For positive samples, participants were also asked to identify the type and semiquantitate the contents of asbestos present. The test results showed 21 (4%) false negative errors among 562 samples, 9 (6%) false positive errors among 154 samples and 53 (9%) asbestos identification errors among 562 samples. Most of false negative and positive errors were observed in a few types of samples. Higher frequencies of asbestos identification errors were shown in samples containing two or more types of asbestos and samples containing anthophyllite, tremolite or actinolite asbestos. For semiquantitative analyses, the ratios of mean to nominal weight contents were 2.1 for chrysotile and 2.9 for amphiboles. A tendency of over-estimation was observed in semiquantitative analyses using the visual estimation technique and higher in case of analyzing samples containing amphiboles than chrysotile. Coefficients of variation (CVs) of semiquantitative analytical results were 0.44~0.83 and 0.5~1.14 for samples containing chrysotile and amphibole asbestos, respectively.

Development of wall-thinning evaluation procedure for nuclear power plant piping - Part 2: Local wall-thinning estimation method

  • Yun, Hun;Moon, Seung-Jae;Oh, Young-Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.2119-2129
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    • 2020
  • Flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC), liquid droplet impingement erosion (LDIE), cavitation and flashing can cause continuous wall-thinning in nuclear secondary pipes. In order to prevent pipe rupture events resulting from the wall-thinning, most NPPs (nuclear power plants) implement their management programs, which include periodic thickness inspection using UT (ultrasonic test). Meanwhile, it is well known in field experiences that the thickness measurement errors (or deviations) are often comparable with the amount of thickness reduction. Because of these errors, it is difficult to estimate wall-thinning exactly whether the significant thinning has occurred in the inspected components or not. In the previous study, the authors presented an approximate estimation procedure as the first step for thickness measurement deviations at each inspected component and the statistical & quantitative characteristics of the measurement deviations using plant experience data. In this study, statistical significance was quantified for the current methods used for wall-thinning determination. Also, the authors proposed new estimation procedures for determining local wall-thinning to overcome the weakness of the current methods, in which the proposed procedure is based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) method using subgrouping of measured thinning values at all measurement grids. The new procedures were also quantified for their statistical significance. As the results, it is confirmed that the new methods have better estimation confidence than the methods having used until now.

Estimation of Ionospheric Delays in Dual Frequency Positioning - Future Possibility of Using Pseudo Range Measurements -

  • Isshiki, Hiroshi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.2
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    • pp.185-190
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    • 2006
  • The correct estimation of the ionospheric delays is very important for the precise kinematic positioning especially in case of the long baseline. In case of triple frequency system, the ionospheric delays can be estimated from the measurements, but, in case of dual frequency system, the situation is not so simple. The precision of those supplied by the external information source such as IONEX is not sufficient. The high frequency component is neglected, and the precision of the low frequency component is not sufficient for the long baseline positioning. On the other hand, the high frequency component can be estimated from the phase range measurements. If the low frequency components are estimated by using the external information source or pseudo range measurements, a more reasonable estimation of the ionospheric delays may be possible. It has already been discussed by the author that the estimation of the low frequency components by using the external information source is not sufficient but fairly effective. The estimation using the pseudo range measurements is discussed in the present paper. The accuracy is not sufficient at present because of the errors in the pseudo range measurements. It is clarified that the bias errors in the pseudo range measurements are responsible for the poor accuracy of the ionospheric delays. However, if the accuracy of the pseudo range measurements is improved in future, the method would become very promising.

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Bayesian Analysis for a Functional Regression Model with Truncated Errors in Variables

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2002
  • This paper considers a functional regression model with truncated errors in explanatory variables. We show that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators produce bias in regression parameter estimates under misspecified models with ignored errors in the explanatory variable measurements, and then propose methods for analyzing the functional model. Fully parametric frequentist approaches for analyzing the model are intractable and thus Bayesian methods are pursued using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. Necessary theories involved in modeling and computation are provided. Finally, a simulation study is given to illustrate and examine the proposed methods.

An Estimation of Nonlinear Time Series with ARCH errors using ECtBnS algorithm

  • Asato, Hajime;Miyagi, Hauao;Yamashita, Katsumi
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2000.07b
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    • pp.1111-1114
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, a method of estimating second-order Volterra model with ARCH errors is presented. Then we use an ECLMS algorithm for noise canceling of nonlinear time series. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated for estimating second-order Volterra model with ARCH errors, using computer simulations.

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Estimation and Evaluation of Volumetric Position Errors for Multi-axis Machine Tools (다축공작기계의 공간오차 예측 및 검증)

  • Hwang, Jooho;Nguyen, Ngoc Cao;Bui, Chin Ba;Park, Chun-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2014
  • This paper describes a method of estimating and evaluating the volumetric errors of multi-axis machine tools. The estimation method is based on a generic model that was developed from conventional kinematic error models for the geometric and thermal errors to help predict the volumetric error easily in various configurations. To demonstrate the advantages of the model, an application in the early stages of a five-axis machine tool design is presented as an example. The model was experimentally evaluated for a four-axis machine tool by using the data from ISO230-6 and R-test measurements to compare the estimated and measured volumetric errors.

Rotating Accuracy Analysis for Spindle with Angular Contact Ball Bearings (각 접촉 볼베어링 스핀들의 회전정밀도 분석)

  • Hwang, Jooho;Kim, Jung-Hwan;Shim, Jongyoup
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.735-739
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    • 2013
  • The error motion of a machine tool spindle directly affects the surface errors of machined parts. Spindle motion errors such as three translational motions and two rotational motions are undesirable. These are usually due to the imperfectness of bearings, stiffness of spindle, assembly errors, and external force or unbalance of rotors. The error motions of the spindle need to be reduced for achieving the desired performance. Therefore, the level of error motion needs to be estimated during the design and assembly process of the spindle. In this study, an estimation method for five degree-of-freedom (5 DOF) error motions for a spindle with an angular contact ball bearing is suggested. To estimate the error motions of the spindle, the waviness of the inner-race of bearings and an external force model were used as input data. The estimation model considers the geometric relationship and force equilibrium of the five DOFs. To calculate the error motions of the spindle, not only the imperfections of the shaft and bearings but also driving elements such as belt pulley and direct driving motor systems are considered.