• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.41-52
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• 2019

The purpose of the work is to develop a simple solar irradiance prediction model using a deep learning method, the LSTM (long term short term memory). Other than existing prediction models, the proposed one uses only the cloudiness among the information forecasted from the national meterological forecast center. The future cloudiness is generally announced with four categories and for three-hour intervals. In this work, a daily irradiance pattern is used as an input vector to the LSTM together with that cloudiness information. The proposed model showed an error of 5% for learning and 30% for prediction. This level of error has lower influence on the load prediction in typical building cases.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.7
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• pp.485-493
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• 2021

Groundwater is an important water resource that can be used along with surface water. In particular, in the case of island regions, research on groundwater level variability is essential for stable groundwater use because the ratio of groundwater use is relatively high. Researches using artificial intelligence models (AIs) for the prediction and analysis of groundwater level variability are continuously increasing. However, there are insufficient studies presenting evaluation criteria to judge the appropriateness of groundwater level prediction. This study comprehensively analyzed the research results that predicted the groundwater level using AIs for various regions around the world over the past 20 years to present the range of allowable groundwater level prediction errors. As a result, the groundwater level prediction error increased as the observed groundwater level variability increased. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the adequacy of the groundwater level prediction by an AI is presented as follows: less than or equal to the root mean square error or maximum error calculated using the linear regression equations presented in this study, or NSE ≥ 0.849 or R² ≥ 0.880. This allowable prediction error range can be used as a reference for determining the appropriateness of the groundwater level prediction using an AI.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.28 no.2C
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• pp.181-192
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• 2003

Blind equalization of communication channel is important because it does not need training signal, nor does it require a priori channel information. So, we can increase the bandwidth efficiency. The linear prediction error method is perhaps the most attractive in practice due to the insensitive to blind channel equalizer length mismatch as well as for its simple adaptive implementation. Unfortunately, the previous one-step prediction error method is known to be limited in arbitrary decision delay. In this paper, we propose method for fractionally spaced blind equalizer with arbitrary decision delay using one-step forward prediction error filter from second-order statistics of the received signals for SIMO channel. Our algorithm utilizes the forward prediction error as training signal and computes the best decision delay from all possible decision delay. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the performance of our proposed algorithm.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.127-137
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• 2019

Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1994.10a
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• pp.95-102
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• 1994

This paper presents a Cable Stayed Bridge Construction Management System, which consists of Structural System Identification Method (SSIM), Error Sensitivity Analysis and Optimum Error Adjustment & Prediction System. The 1st System Identification Method builds an error influence matrix using the linear superposition of each error modes. The 2nd SSIM also considers the second error mode term, which shows good error factor estimation. The optimal cable adjustment can be accomplished within the allowable range of both cable tension and camber. The Post processor, constituted with Motif and GL library on SGI platform, is useful for monitoring construction stage management by displaying construction data, adjustment and prediction results at each construction step.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.43-51
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• 2004

A method for form error prediction in side wall machining with a flat end mill is suggested. Form error is predicted directly from the tool deflection without surface generation by cutting edge locus with time simulation. Developed model can predict the surface form error about three hundred times faster than the previous method. Cutting forces and tool deflection are calculated considering tool geometry, tool setting error and machine tool stiffness. The characteristics and the difference of generated surface shape in up milling and down milling are discussed. The usefulness of the presented method is verified from a set of experiments under various cutting conditions generally used in die and mold manufacturing. This study contributes to real time surface shape estimation and cutting process planning for the improvement of form accuracy.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.11-21
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• 2011

An embedded sensor is significantly influenced by its spatial environment, such as barriers or distance, through low power and signal strength. Due to these causes, noise data frequently occur in an embedded sensor. Because the information acquired from the embedded sensor exists in a time series, it is hard to detect an error which continuously takes place in the time series information on a realtime basis. In this paper, we proposes an error detection method based on time-series prediction that detects error signals of embedded sensors in real time in consideration of the physical characteristics of embedded devices. The error detection method based on time-series prediction proposed in this paper determines errors in generated embedded device signals using a stable distance function. When detecting errors by monitoring signals from an embedded device, the stable distance function can detect error signals effectively by applying error weight to the latest signals. When detecting errors by monitoring signals from an embedded device, the stable distance function can detect error signals effectively by applying error weight to the latest signals.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.32-39
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• 2000

In low earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication systems, more severe phase distortion due to Doppler shift is frequently detected in the received signal than in cases of geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellite systems or terrestrial mobile systems. Therefore, an estimation of Doppler shift would be one of the most important factors to enhance performance of LEO satellite communication system. In this paper, a new adaptive Doppler compensation scheme using location information of a user terminal and satellite, as well as a weighting factor for the reduction of prediction error is proposed. The prediction performance of the proposed scheme is simulated in terms of the prediction accuracy and the cumulative density function of the prediction error, with considering the offset variation range of the initial input parameters in LEO satellite system. The simulation results showed that the proposed adaptive compensation algorithm has the better performance accuracy than Ali's method. From the simulation results, it is concluded the adaptive compensation algorithm is the most applicable method that can be applied to LEO satellite systems of a range of altitude between 1,000 km and 2,000 km for the general error tolerance level, M = 250 Hz.

• IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.78-87
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• 2012

In this paper, we address the tracking problem caused by camera motion and rolling shutter effects associated with CMOS sensors in consumer handheld cameras, such as mobile cameras, digital cameras, and digital camcorders. A modified particle filtering method is proposed for simultaneously tracking objects and compensating for the effects of camera motion. The proposed method uses an elastic registration algorithm (ER) that considers the global affine motion as well as the brightness and contrast between images, assuming that camera motion results in an affine transform of the image between two successive frames. By assuming that the camera motion is modeled globally by an affine transform, only the global affine model instead of the local model was considered. Only the brightness parameter was used in intensity variation. The contrast parameters used in the original ER algorithm were ignored because the change in illumination is small enough between temporally adjacent frames. The proposed particle filtering consists of the following four steps: (i) prediction step, (ii) compensating prediction state error based on camera motion estimation, (iii) update step and (iv) re-sampling step. A larger number of particles are needed when camera motion generates a prediction state error of an object at the prediction step. The proposed method robustly tracks the object of interest by compensating for the prediction state error using the affine motion model estimated from ER. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the conventional particle filter, and can track moving objects robustly in consumer handheld imaging devices.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.83-90
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• 2024

Machine learning is widely applied to various engineering fields. In structural engineering area, machine learning is generally used to predict structural responses of building structures. The aging deterioration of reinforced concrete structure affects its structural behavior. Therefore, the aging deterioration of R.C. structure should be consider to exactly predict seismic responses of the structure. In this study, the machine learning based seismic response prediction model was developed. To this end, four machine learning algorithms were employed and prediction performance of each algorithm was compared. A 3-story coupled shear wall structure was selected as an example structure for numerical simulation. Artificial ground motions were generated based on domestic site characteristics. Elastic modulus, damping ratio and density were changed to considering concrete degradation due to chloride penetration and carbonation, etc. Various intensity measures were used input parameters of the training database. Performance evaluation was performed using metrics like root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. The optimization of hyperparameters was achieved through k-fold cross-validation and grid search techniques. The analysis results show that neural networks and extreme gradient boosting algorithms present good prediction performance.