• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.31 no.2 s.257
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• pp.160-165
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• 2007

To predict long-term creep life from short-term creep life data, various parametric methods such as Larson-Mille. (L-M), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (O-S-D), Manson-Haferd (M-H) parameters, and a Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) were suggested. A number of the creep data were collected through literature surveys and experimental data produced in KAERI. The polynomial equations for type 316LN SS were obtained by the time-temperature parameters (TTP) and the MCM. Standard error (SE) and standard error of mean (SEM) values were obtained and compared with the each method for various temperatures. The TTP methods showed good creep-life prediction, but the MCM was much superior to the TTP ones at $700^{\circ}C$ and $750^{\circ}C$. It was found that the MCM were lower in the SE values when compared to the TTP methods.

• Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.231-241
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• 2018

In this paper, we consider the anti-attack procedure of a ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) at different operating frequencies at its phased-array radar station. The interception performance is measured in terms of lateral divert (LD), which denotes the minimum acceleration amount available in an interceptor to compensate for prediction error for a successful intercept. Dependence of the frequency on estimation accuracy that leads directly to prediction error is taken into account, in terms of angular measurement noises. The estimation extraction is performed by means of an extended Kalman filter (EKF), considering two typical re-entry trajectories of a non-maneuvering ballistic missile (BM). The simulation results show better performance at higher frequency for both tracking and intercepting aspects.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.27-31
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• 2011

This paper addresses estimating the frequency of a cisoid in the presence of white Gaussian noise, which has numerous applications in communications, radar, sonar, and instrumentation and measurement. Due to the nonlinear nature of the frequency estimation problem, there is threshold effect, that is, large error estimates or outliers will occur at sufficiently low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions. Utilizing the ideas of averaging to increase SNR and weighted linear prediction, an optimal frequency estimator with smaller threshold SNR is developed. Computer simulations are included to compare its mean square error performance with that of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, improved weighted phase averager, generalized weighted linear predictor, and single weighted sample correlator as well as Cramer-Rao lower bound. In particular, with smaller computational requirement, the proposed estimator can achieve the same threshold and estimation performance of the ML method.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.213-222
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• 2002

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature up to +45 hours in Seoul area is performed using dynamic linear models(DLM). Numerical outputs and observations we used as input values of DLM. According to compare DLM forecasts to RDAPS forecasts using RMSE, DLM improve the accuracy of prediction and systematic error of numerical model outputs are eliminated by DLM.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.14-19
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• 2008

The paper presents an intelligent time series model to predict uncertain electricity market price in the deregulated industry environment. Since the price of electricity in a deregulated market is very volatile, it is difficult to estimate an accurate market price using historically observed data. The parameter of an intelligent time series model is obtained based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA). The SPSA is flexible to use in high dimensional systems. Since prediction models have their modeling error, an error compensator is developed as compensation. The SPSA based intelligent model is applied to predict the electricity market price in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market.

• International Journal of Contents
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.49-53
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• 2016

"Hahoe Village" in Andong region is an UNESCO World Heritage Site. It should be protected against various disasters such as fire, flooding, earthquake, etc. Among these disasters, flooding has drastic impact on the lives and properties in a wide area. Since "Hahoe Village" is adjacent to Nakdong River, it is important to monitor the water level near the village. In this paper, we developed a hydrological modelling using multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to predict the water level of Nakdong River near "Hahoe Village". To develop the prediction model, error back-propagation (EBP) algorithm was used to train the MLP with water level data near the village and rainfall data at the upper reaches of the village. After training with data in 2012 and 2013, we verified the prediction performance of MLP with untrained data in 2014.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.9-15
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• 2002

This paper presents the seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) using the generalized linear model (GLM) and dynamic linear model (DLM) based on 51-year-data (1951-2001) in TC season (June to November). The numbers of TC and TY are predictands and 16 indices (the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, the synoptic factors over East asia and WNP) are considered as potential predictors. With 30-year moving windowing, the estimation and prediction of TC and TY are performed using GLM. If GLM forecasts have some systematic error like a bias, DLM is applied to remove the systematic error in order to improve the accuracy of prediction.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1990.04a
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• pp.245-253
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• 1990

In a regression relationship the independent variables are frequently measured with error when measurements are made in the field under less controlled conditions, or when accurate instruments are not available. This paper deals with the prediction problem for the above situation. The integrated mean square error of prediction (IMSE) is developed as a measure of the effect of the errors in the independent variables on the predicted values. The IMSE may be used for assessing the severeness of measurement errors as well as for comparing competing estimators. An example from the area of work measurement is analyzed.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.210-210
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• 2000

In this paper, we have investigated the properties of multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for odour patterns classification and concentration estimation simultaneously. When the MLP may be has a fast convergence speed with small error and excellent mapping ability for classification, it can be possible to use for classification and concentration prediction of volatile chemicals simultaneously. However, the conventional MLP, which is back-Propagation of error based on the steepest descent method, was difficult to use for odour classification and concentration estimation simultaneously, because it is slow to converge and may fall into the local minimum. We adapted the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM) algorithm [4,5] having advantages both the steepest descent method and Gauss-Newton method instead of the conventional steepest descent method for the simultaneous classification and concentration estimation of odours. And, We designed the artificial odour sensing system(Electronic Nose) and applied LM-BP algorithm for classification and concentration prediction of VOC gases.

• Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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• v.1997 no.11
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• pp.228-231
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• 1997

In this paper, we designed an ART(Adaptive Resonance Theory) network based on LPC(Linear Prediction Coefficient) for classification of PVB (Premature Ventricular Beat: PVC, LBBB, RBBB). The procedure of proposed system consists of the error calculation, feature generation and processing of the ART network. The error is calculated after processing by linear prediction algorithm and the features of ART network or classification are obtained from the binary ata determined by threshold method. In conclusion, ART network has good performance in classification of PVB.